芦山地震的预测
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摘要
2013年4月20日中国四川省雅安市芦山县发生了7.0级地震,对于这次地震发生的时间和地点,震前有不同程度的预测。为了推动地球科学发展,提高地震预测水平,以达到最大限度地减轻地震灾害损失,特对此作一小结。2011年3月11日日本东北部海域发生9级地震以后,利用可公度性原理,分析了近年来发生在世界各地的大地震,发现这些地震发生的时间具有可公度性,且它们基本上发生在其时间轴上的可公度值点上。根据对川滇块体地震信息的可公度性分析,该研究区的可公度值是2.44年,因而2013.24年就是未来地震可能发生的时间点;根据卫星重力异常反映的地壳密度异常变化图,雅安西侧与汶川具有两个特征相同的独立的卫星重力局部高异常梯度突变区,2008年的汶川地震只是释放了龙门山断裂带东北段的能量和应力,这导致能量和应力在龙门山断裂带南西段,特别是南西端与重力异常突变位置的叠加区加速积聚和集中,因此曾佐勋多次指出四川的下一个大震将在雅安与康定之间发生。这两方面的分析都是震前的,可惜它们是彼此独立的。如果事前能将这两个方面的预测加以综合分析,则可以达到短期预测的目的。这再一次表明,地震预测必须走综合分析之路。
A magnitude 7. 0 earthquake occurred at the Lushan County,Ya'an City,Sichuan Province,China in April 20,2013. We had various forecasts of the time and location of this earthquake. In order to advance development of geosciences and improve accuracies of forecasts of earthquakes,which,should help to minimize damages from earthquakes, we summarize these forecasts in this paper. After a magnitude 9earthquake occurred off the northeastern coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, we used the method of commensurability to analyze the earthquakes in recent years in the world and found that the dates of these earthquakes are all at commensurable points. According to our analyses dates( in units of years from the A. D.) of earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan block follow a law of commensurability as 2. 44 K +b with K an integer numbering between 0 and 5. From this law we predicted an earthquake to occur at the time 2013. 24 A. D. in the block,which is consistent with the Ya'an( Lushan) earthquake. We further checked a map of gravity anomalies from satellite measurements, which actually reflects the distribution of crust-density anomalies. From the map we found that there were two highly abnormal regions of local abrupt changes of gravity gradients on the west side of the Ya'an and at the Wenchuan County,respectively. The two regions have common characteristics. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake only released the energy and stress in the northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone. In the southwestern section of the fault zone,particularly in the regions of gravity anomalies there,the energy and stress became more concentrated due to the Wenchuan earthquake. Prior to the Ya'an earthquake one of us( Zeng Zuoxun) had noticed the pattern of gravity anomalies and repeatedly pointed out that the next high-magnitude earthquake in the Sichuan Basin after the Wenchuan earthquake was about to happen between Ya 'an and Kangding. It is unfortunate that the studies of commensurability and gravity anomalies were carried out by different authors without communications about the studies. If the two studies were combined before the Ya'an earthquake,a short-term forecast of the earthquake could have been realized. This once again shows that earthquake forecasts need to take synthetic approaches.
A magnitude 7. 0 earthquake occurred at the Lushan County,Ya'an City,Sichuan Province,China in April 20,2013. We had various forecasts of the time and location of this earthquake. In order to advance development of geosciences and improve accuracies of forecasts of earthquakes,which,should help to minimize damages from earthquakes, we summarize these forecasts in this paper. After a magnitude 9earthquake occurred off the northeastern coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, we used the method of commensurability to analyze the earthquakes in recent years in the world and found that the dates of these earthquakes are all at commensurable points. According to our analyses dates( in units of years from the A. D.) of earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan block follow a law of commensurability as 2. 44 K +b with K an integer numbering between 0 and 5. From this law we predicted an earthquake to occur at the time 2013. 24 A. D. in the block,which is consistent with the Ya'an( Lushan) earthquake. We further checked a map of gravity anomalies from satellite measurements, which actually reflects the distribution of crust-density anomalies. From the map we found that there were two highly abnormal regions of local abrupt changes of gravity gradients on the west side of the Ya'an and at the Wenchuan County,respectively. The two regions have common characteristics. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake only released the energy and stress in the northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone. In the southwestern section of the fault zone,particularly in the regions of gravity anomalies there,the energy and stress became more concentrated due to the Wenchuan earthquake. Prior to the Ya'an earthquake one of us( Zeng Zuoxun) had noticed the pattern of gravity anomalies and repeatedly pointed out that the next high-magnitude earthquake in the Sichuan Basin after the Wenchuan earthquake was about to happen between Ya 'an and Kangding. It is unfortunate that the studies of commensurability and gravity anomalies were carried out by different authors without communications about the studies. If the two studies were combined before the Ya'an earthquake,a short-term forecast of the earthquake could have been realized. This once again shows that earthquake forecasts need to take synthetic approaches.
引文
[1]翁文波.可公度性[J].地球物体学报,1981,24(2):151-154.Weng Wenbo.Commensurability[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,1981,24(2):151-154.
[2]Nietro M M.The Titius-Bode law of planetary distances:its history and theory[M].New York:Pergamon Press,1972.
[3]中国大百科全书编辑委员会<天文学>编辑委员会.中国大百科全书天文学[M].上海:中国大百科全书出版社,1980.
[4]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[5]Hu Hui,Han Yanben,Su Youjin,et al.Commensurability of earthquake occurrence[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2013,70-71:27-34.
[6]费琪.壳幔物质流变的底辟作用孕育大地震-卫星重力资料的证据[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):282-293.Fei Qi.Major earthquakes by rheological diapirism of crust-mantle material-evidence from satellite gravity data[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2009,16(3):282-293.
[7]费琪.汶川大地震的深部构造特征[J].工程地球物理学报,2008,5(4):387-395.Fei Qi.Characters of deep structure for Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Engineering Geophysics,2008,5(4):387-395.
[8]龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81-84.Long Xiaoxia,Yan Junping,Sun Hu,et al.Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2006,21(3):81-84.
[9]胡辉,韩延本,尹志强.全球大地震的引潮力检验[J].天文研究与技术——国家天文台台刊,2008,5(4):420-423.Hu Hui,Han Yanben,Yin Zhiqiang.Test of the tidal effect on great earthquakes all over the world[J].Astronomical Research&Technology——Publications of National Astronomical Observatories of China,2008,5(4):420-423.
[10]胡辉,韩延本,李语强,等.全球大地震与月亮交点潮的相关研究[J].天文研究与技术——国家天文台台刊,2014,11(3):317-322.Hu Hui,Han Yanben,Li Yuqiang,et al.A study of the correlation of lunar nodal tides with global high-magnitude earthquakes[J].Astronomical Research&Technology——Publications of National Astronomical Observatories of China,2014,11(3):317-322.
[11]Engdahl E R,Villaseor A.Global seismicity:1900-1999[M]//Lee H K,Kanamori H,Jennings P C,et al.International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology.Amsterdam:Academic Press,2002.
[12]Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al.Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J].Science,1997,275(5306):1616-1617.
[13]Wyss M.Why is earthquake prediction research not progressing faster?[J].Tectonophysies,2001,338(3-4):217-223.
1曾佐勋,王杰,2013.雅安地震:一个成功的中期预测案例,网络出版时间:2013-05-03
[2]Nietro M M.The Titius-Bode law of planetary distances:its history and theory[M].New York:Pergamon Press,1972.
[3]中国大百科全书编辑委员会<天文学>编辑委员会.中国大百科全书天文学[M].上海:中国大百科全书出版社,1980.
[4]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[5]Hu Hui,Han Yanben,Su Youjin,et al.Commensurability of earthquake occurrence[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2013,70-71:27-34.
[6]费琪.壳幔物质流变的底辟作用孕育大地震-卫星重力资料的证据[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):282-293.Fei Qi.Major earthquakes by rheological diapirism of crust-mantle material-evidence from satellite gravity data[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2009,16(3):282-293.
[7]费琪.汶川大地震的深部构造特征[J].工程地球物理学报,2008,5(4):387-395.Fei Qi.Characters of deep structure for Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Engineering Geophysics,2008,5(4):387-395.
[8]龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81-84.Long Xiaoxia,Yan Junping,Sun Hu,et al.Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2006,21(3):81-84.
[9]胡辉,韩延本,尹志强.全球大地震的引潮力检验[J].天文研究与技术——国家天文台台刊,2008,5(4):420-423.Hu Hui,Han Yanben,Yin Zhiqiang.Test of the tidal effect on great earthquakes all over the world[J].Astronomical Research&Technology——Publications of National Astronomical Observatories of China,2008,5(4):420-423.
[10]胡辉,韩延本,李语强,等.全球大地震与月亮交点潮的相关研究[J].天文研究与技术——国家天文台台刊,2014,11(3):317-322.Hu Hui,Han Yanben,Li Yuqiang,et al.A study of the correlation of lunar nodal tides with global high-magnitude earthquakes[J].Astronomical Research&Technology——Publications of National Astronomical Observatories of China,2014,11(3):317-322.
[11]Engdahl E R,Villaseor A.Global seismicity:1900-1999[M]//Lee H K,Kanamori H,Jennings P C,et al.International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology.Amsterdam:Academic Press,2002.
[12]Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al.Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J].Science,1997,275(5306):1616-1617.
[13]Wyss M.Why is earthquake prediction research not progressing faster?[J].Tectonophysies,2001,338(3-4):217-223.
1曾佐勋,王杰,2013.雅安地震:一个成功的中期预测案例,网络出版时间:2013-05-03
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