关于“可操作性地震预报:有关‘为什么’和‘怎么办’的几点思考”的另一种见解
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摘要
<正>2009年4月6日,意大利拉奎拉(L’Aquila)发生MW6.3地震,造成意大利中部308人死亡。地震后,意大利政府召集了一次国际地震预报委员会(ICEF)会议。在近期出版的《地震研究快报》(Seismological
引文
[1]Jordan T H,Jones L M.Operational earthquake forecasting:Some thoughts on why and how.Seismolog-ical Research Letters,2010,81(4):571?574
[2]Jordan T H,Chen Y-T,Gasparini P,et al.Operational Earthquake Forecasting:State of Knowledge andGuidelines for I mplementation.Findings and Recommendations of the International Commission on Earth-quake Forecasting for Civil Protection,released by the Diparti mento della Protezione Civile,Rome,Italy,2 October 2009
[3]Crampin S,Gao Y.Plate-wide deformation before the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake.Submitted to Pure&Applied Geophysics,2010
[4]Crampin S.The New Geophysics:Anewunderstanding of fluid-rock deformation.In Eurock 2006:Multiphysics coupling and long termbehaviour in rock mechanics,ed.A Van Cotthemet al.,2006,539-544.London:Taylor&Francis
[5]Crampin S,Peacock S.Areviewof shear-wave splitting in the compliant crack-critical anisotropic Earth.Wave Motion,2005,41:59-77
[6]Crampin S,Peacock S.Areviewof the current understanding of shear-wave splitting and commonfallaciesininterpretation.Wave Motion,2008,45:675-722
[7]Davies P.The New Physics:A synthesis.In The New Physics,ed.P Davies,1-6.Cambridge:Cam-bridge University Press,1989
[8]Crampin S,Chastin S,Gao Y.Shear-wave splittingin a critical crust:Ⅲ———preli minary report of multi-variable measurements in active tectonics.Journal of Applied Geophysics,2003,54,special issue 265-277
[9]Crampin S.Developing stress-monitoring sites using cross-hole seismology to stress-forecast the ti mes andmagnitudes of future earthquakes.Tectonophysics,2001,338:233-245(note updated geometryin online version)
[10]Leary P C,Walter L A.Physical model for the downhole orbital vibrator(DOV)———I.Acoustic andborehole seismic radiation.Geophysical Journal International,2005,163:647-662
[11]Crampin S,Zatsepin S V,Browitt C W A,et al.GEMS:The Opportunity for Stress-forecasting AllDamaging Earthquakes Worldwide.Edinburgh Anisotropy Project,research report,2010,17,D4-1—D4-11
[12]Crampin S,Volti T,Stefansson R.Asuccessful stress-forecast earthquake.Geophysical Journal Interna-tional,1999,138:F1-F5
[13]Crampin S,Gao Y,Peacock S.Stress-forecasting(not predicting)earthquakes:Aparadigmshift?Geol-ogy,2008,36:427-430
[2]Jordan T H,Chen Y-T,Gasparini P,et al.Operational Earthquake Forecasting:State of Knowledge andGuidelines for I mplementation.Findings and Recommendations of the International Commission on Earth-quake Forecasting for Civil Protection,released by the Diparti mento della Protezione Civile,Rome,Italy,2 October 2009
[3]Crampin S,Gao Y.Plate-wide deformation before the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake.Submitted to Pure&Applied Geophysics,2010
[4]Crampin S.The New Geophysics:Anewunderstanding of fluid-rock deformation.In Eurock 2006:Multiphysics coupling and long termbehaviour in rock mechanics,ed.A Van Cotthemet al.,2006,539-544.London:Taylor&Francis
[5]Crampin S,Peacock S.Areviewof shear-wave splitting in the compliant crack-critical anisotropic Earth.Wave Motion,2005,41:59-77
[6]Crampin S,Peacock S.Areviewof the current understanding of shear-wave splitting and commonfallaciesininterpretation.Wave Motion,2008,45:675-722
[7]Davies P.The New Physics:A synthesis.In The New Physics,ed.P Davies,1-6.Cambridge:Cam-bridge University Press,1989
[8]Crampin S,Chastin S,Gao Y.Shear-wave splittingin a critical crust:Ⅲ———preli minary report of multi-variable measurements in active tectonics.Journal of Applied Geophysics,2003,54,special issue 265-277
[9]Crampin S.Developing stress-monitoring sites using cross-hole seismology to stress-forecast the ti mes andmagnitudes of future earthquakes.Tectonophysics,2001,338:233-245(note updated geometryin online version)
[10]Leary P C,Walter L A.Physical model for the downhole orbital vibrator(DOV)———I.Acoustic andborehole seismic radiation.Geophysical Journal International,2005,163:647-662
[11]Crampin S,Zatsepin S V,Browitt C W A,et al.GEMS:The Opportunity for Stress-forecasting AllDamaging Earthquakes Worldwide.Edinburgh Anisotropy Project,research report,2010,17,D4-1—D4-11
[12]Crampin S,Volti T,Stefansson R.Asuccessful stress-forecast earthquake.Geophysical Journal Interna-tional,1999,138:F1-F5
[13]Crampin S,Gao Y,Peacock S.Stress-forecasting(not predicting)earthquakes:Aparadigmshift?Geol-ogy,2008,36:427-430
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