紧急事件下疏散元胞传输宏观模型研究
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摘要
作者通过建立元胞传输模型研究了紧急事件下网络动态交通流应急疏散问题,将车流离散化处理成单个车辆可以有效的克服网络规模较大时运算效率低的缺点。模型采用时间步长法进行模拟,紧急疏散车辆路径的确定与各路段的走行时间密切相关。仿真结果说明模型和算法提高了紧急事件下网络动态交通配流的应用效果。
In order to study the problem of evacuation of traffic flow at dynamic traffic network in emergency,the model of the emergency evacuation based on cell transmission model(CTM)was put forward.Traffic flows were dispersed into single vehicle in order to resolve the mathematical efficiency of large scale network.With the time step method,the routes of traffic vehicle evacuation are closely related to travel time on each link under the condition of emergency.Simulation result shows that the effectiveness of the distribution of evacuation flows in dynamic transportation network under the condition of emergency was improved by the model and the algorithm.
In order to study the problem of evacuation of traffic flow at dynamic traffic network in emergency,the model of the emergency evacuation based on cell transmission model(CTM)was put forward.Traffic flows were dispersed into single vehicle in order to resolve the mathematical efficiency of large scale network.With the time step method,the routes of traffic vehicle evacuation are closely related to travel time on each link under the condition of emergency.Simulation result shows that the effectiveness of the distribution of evacuation flows in dynamic transportation network under the condition of emergency was improved by the model and the algorithm.
引文
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[20]汪淼,潘郁.基于突发事件的应急管理研究[J].商场现代化,2008(4):39-41WANG Miao,PAN Yu.The Research of Emergency Manage-ment Based on Disaster Incident[J].Market Modernization,2008(4):39-41.
[21]张晴,赵晶心,董德存.交通事故管理智能决策支持系统设计初探[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2008,5(3):83-89.ZHANG Qing,ZHAO Jingxin,DONG Decun.Design of In-telligent Decision Support System to Traffic Incident Manage-ment[J].Journal of Railway Science and Engineering,2008,5(3):83-89.
[22]黄典剑,李传贵.城市重大事故应急管理协调性研究[J].安全,2008(6):18-21.HUANG Dianjian,LI Chuangui.The Study of Unisonous Man-agement on Great Accident in Big City[J].Safety,2008(6):18-21.
[23]虞明远.公路交通应急运输保障机制研究[J].综合运输,2007(1):46-51.YU Mingyuan.Study on Emergency Transport Safeguard Systemfor Road Transport[J].Comprehensive Transporation,2007(1):46-51.
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[25]冯浩.交通运输领域突发公共事件应急预案的制定与实施[J].综合运输,2006(10):54-58.FENG Hao.Establish and Execution of Accident PreventionPlan for Emergency in Transportation Industry[J].Compre-hensive Transporation,2006(10):54-58.
[26]刘小明,胡红.应急交通疏散研究现状与展望[J].交通运输工程学报,2008,8(3):108-117.LIU Xiaoming,HU Hong.Research Status and Prospect of E-mergency Transportation Evacuation[J].Journal of Trafficand Transportation Engineering,2008,8(3):108-117.
[27]郑洁.城市应急交通系统发展与建设[J].ITS通讯,2006:43-48.ZHENG Jie.Development and Construction of Emergency Trans-portation Evacuation in City[J].Intelligent Transportation Sys-tem,2006:43-48.
[28]司夏萌.城轨交通突发事件应急救援系统的设计及实现[J].都市快轨交通,2007,20(4):9-13.SI Xiameng.Design and Implementation of Emergency RescueSystem for Urban Rail Transit[J].Urban Rapid Rail Tran-sit,2007,20(4):9-13.
[29]贾斌,高自友,李克平,等.基于元胞自动机的交通系统建模与模拟[M].科学出版社,2007:228-242.JIA Bin,GAO Ziyou,LI Kepin,et al.Models and Simula-tions of Traffic System Based on The Theory of Cellular Au-tomaton[M].Science Press,2007,228-242.
[30]张海军,张珏,杨晓光.异常事件下高速道路交通状态的分析与仿真[J].交通运输工程学报,2008,8(2):116-122.ZHANG Haijun,ZHANG Jue,YANG Xiaoguang.Analysisand Simulation of Traffic State on Expressway during Incident[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,2008,8(2):116-122.
[31]范泽孟,牛文元,顾基发.社会突发事件应急模型及控制模式的构建分析[J].中国软科学,2007(8):85-93.FAN Zemeng,NIU Wenyuan,GU Jifa.Response Model andControl Pattern of the Social Emergency[J].China Soft Sci-ence,2007(8):85-93.
[32]邱仁义,刘冶.交通事故预测的灰色GM(1,1)模型[J].公路与汽运,2008(4):63-66.QIU Renyi,LIU Hongzhi.Modeling of GM(1,1)for TrafficAccident Forecast[J].Highways&Automotive Application,2008(4):63-66.
[33]袁媛,汪定伟.灾害扩散实时影响下的应急疏散路径选择模型[J].系统仿真学报,2008,20(6):1563-1566.YUAN Yuan,WANG Dingwei.Route Selection Model in E-mergency Evacuation under Real Time Effect of Disaster Exten-sion[J].Journal of System Simulation,2008,20(6):1563-1566.
[34]DAGANZUO C F.The Cell Transmission Model:A DynamicRepresentation of Highway Traffic Consistent with The Hydrody-namic Theory[J].Transportation Research Part B:Method-ological,1994,28B(4):269-287.
[35]DAGANZUO C F.The Cell Transmission Model,Part II:Net-work Traffic[J].Transportation Research Part B:Method-ological,1995,29B(2):79-93.
[36]姬杨蓓蓓,张小宁,孙立军.基于元胞传输模型的交通事件消散建模[J].重庆交通大学学报:自然科学版,2008,27(3):442-446.JIYANG Beibei,ZHANG Xiaoning,SUN Lijun.Modeling ofthe Traffic Incident Dissipation Based on Cell TransmissionModel[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Natu-ral Science Edition,2008,27(3):442-446.
[2]URBANIK T,DESROSIERS A.An Analysis of EvacuationTime Estimates around 52 Nuclear Power Plant Sites[M].Washington D.C.:US Nuclear Regulatory Commission,1981.
[3]SHEFFI Y,MAHMASSANI H.A Transportation Network E-vacuation Model[J].Transportation Research Part A,1982,16(3):209-218.
[4]LINDELL M K,PRATER C S.Development of A DecisionSupport System for Hurricane Evacuation Management[C]//Proceedings of the 2002 US/Japan Workshop on Wind Engi-neering.Texas:Hazard Reduction&Recovery Center,2002:238-294.
[5]HAN A,TEVACS F.Decision Support System for EvacuationPlanning in Taiwan[J].Journal of Transportation Engineer-ing,1990,116(6):821-830.
[6]HOBEIKA A G,JAMIE B.MASSVAC:A Model for Calcu-lating Evacuation Times under Natural Disasters[J].Emer-gency Planning,1985,15:23-28.
[7]WITTE,K.Fishing for Success:Using the Persuasive HealthMessage Framework to Generate Effective Campaign Messages[J].Sage Publications,1995:145-166.
[8]ORNL.Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System(OREMS)Us-er’Guide[R].Oak Ridge:Oak Ridge National Laboratory,1999.
[9]PBS J.Southeast United Sates Hurricane Evacuation TrafficStudy:Evacuation Travel Demand Forecasting System[R].Florida:Post,Buckley,Schuh&Jernigan,Inc.,2000.
[10]WLSHON B.One-Way-Out:Contraflow Freeway Operation forHurricane Evacuaion[J].Natural Hazards Review,2001,2(3):105-112.
[11]陈岳明,萧德云.路网应急疏散问题建模及其应用的进展[J].科学技术与工程,2008,8(17):4945-4952.CHEN Yueming,XIAO Deyun.Review of Evacuation Model-ing in Emergency and Its Application[J].Science Technologyand Engineering,2008,8(17):4945-4952.
[12]NCHRP.NCHRP Transportation Security Projects[EB/OL](2008-12-15)[2009-02-10]http://www4.trb.Org/trb/crp.nsf/All+Projects/TCRP+J-10,2005.
[13]VDEM.Terrorism Information:The Facts-How to Prepare-Howto Respond[EB/OL][2008-12-15].Virginia http://www.vdes.state.va.us/prepare/terrorismtoolkit/terrguide/in-dex.htm Department of Emergency Management,2005.
[14]王涛,岑晏青,曹沫,等.由雪灾引发的交通应急管理思考[J].交通建设与管理,2008(3):33-36.WANG Tao,QIN Yanqing,CAO Mo,et al.The Considera-tion of Management of Traffic Emergency Evacuation in SnowDisasters[J].Transportation Construction&Management,2008(3):33-36.
[15]宋先月,宋治平,刘双庆,等.地震应急时交通管制需求判断模型探讨[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5):111-116.SONG Xianyue,SONG Zhiping,LIU Shuangqing,et al.TheDiscussion of Traffic Management Requirement Model in Earth-quake Emergency Response[J].Seismological and Geomag-netic Observation and Research,2007,28(5):111-116.
[16]孔令斌.地震灾害与交通系统应急规划[EB/OL].维普资讯.http://www.cqvip.com,2006.KONG Lingbin.Seismic Hazard and Planning of Transponation Emergency Sys-tems[EB/OL][2008-12-15].http://www.cqvip.com,2006.
[17]胡红,刘小明,杨孝宽.基于最小安全间距的应急交通疏散车辆跟驰模型[J].北京工业大学学报,2007,33(10):1070-1075.HU Hong,LIU Xiaoming,YANG Xiaokuan.A Car-followingModel of Emergency Evacuation Based on Minimum Safety Dis-tance[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2007,33(10):1070-1075.
[18]刘杨,沈海州,彭国雄.基于神经网络的应急车辆行程时间计算模型[J].武汉理工大学学报:交通科学与工程版,2007,31(6):973-976.LIU Yang,SHEN Haizhou,PENG Guoxiong.Travel TimeModel of Emergency Vehicle Based on BP Network[J].Jour-nal of Wuhan University of Technology:Transportation Science&Engineering Edition,2007,31(6):973-976.
[19]李洪武,胡晓健,陆建.交通意外事件紧急疏导配流方案生成方法研究[J].现代城市研究,2007(12):76-83.LI Hongwu,HU Xiaojian,LU Jian.Research on a GenerationMethod of an Urgent Dispersion Assignment Scheme for theTransportation Incident[J].The Research of Modern City,2007(12):76-83.
[20]汪淼,潘郁.基于突发事件的应急管理研究[J].商场现代化,2008(4):39-41WANG Miao,PAN Yu.The Research of Emergency Manage-ment Based on Disaster Incident[J].Market Modernization,2008(4):39-41.
[21]张晴,赵晶心,董德存.交通事故管理智能决策支持系统设计初探[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2008,5(3):83-89.ZHANG Qing,ZHAO Jingxin,DONG Decun.Design of In-telligent Decision Support System to Traffic Incident Manage-ment[J].Journal of Railway Science and Engineering,2008,5(3):83-89.
[22]黄典剑,李传贵.城市重大事故应急管理协调性研究[J].安全,2008(6):18-21.HUANG Dianjian,LI Chuangui.The Study of Unisonous Man-agement on Great Accident in Big City[J].Safety,2008(6):18-21.
[23]虞明远.公路交通应急运输保障机制研究[J].综合运输,2007(1):46-51.YU Mingyuan.Study on Emergency Transport Safeguard Systemfor Road Transport[J].Comprehensive Transporation,2007(1):46-51.
[24]谢素华.论我国公路交通应急及运输保障体系的建设[J].公路交通科技,2008,25(9):154-159.XIE Suhua.Study on Emergency Response and Transport Orga-nization System between China and Developed Countries[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Develop-ment,2008,25(9):154-159.
[25]冯浩.交通运输领域突发公共事件应急预案的制定与实施[J].综合运输,2006(10):54-58.FENG Hao.Establish and Execution of Accident PreventionPlan for Emergency in Transportation Industry[J].Compre-hensive Transporation,2006(10):54-58.
[26]刘小明,胡红.应急交通疏散研究现状与展望[J].交通运输工程学报,2008,8(3):108-117.LIU Xiaoming,HU Hong.Research Status and Prospect of E-mergency Transportation Evacuation[J].Journal of Trafficand Transportation Engineering,2008,8(3):108-117.
[27]郑洁.城市应急交通系统发展与建设[J].ITS通讯,2006:43-48.ZHENG Jie.Development and Construction of Emergency Trans-portation Evacuation in City[J].Intelligent Transportation Sys-tem,2006:43-48.
[28]司夏萌.城轨交通突发事件应急救援系统的设计及实现[J].都市快轨交通,2007,20(4):9-13.SI Xiameng.Design and Implementation of Emergency RescueSystem for Urban Rail Transit[J].Urban Rapid Rail Tran-sit,2007,20(4):9-13.
[29]贾斌,高自友,李克平,等.基于元胞自动机的交通系统建模与模拟[M].科学出版社,2007:228-242.JIA Bin,GAO Ziyou,LI Kepin,et al.Models and Simula-tions of Traffic System Based on The Theory of Cellular Au-tomaton[M].Science Press,2007,228-242.
[30]张海军,张珏,杨晓光.异常事件下高速道路交通状态的分析与仿真[J].交通运输工程学报,2008,8(2):116-122.ZHANG Haijun,ZHANG Jue,YANG Xiaoguang.Analysisand Simulation of Traffic State on Expressway during Incident[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,2008,8(2):116-122.
[31]范泽孟,牛文元,顾基发.社会突发事件应急模型及控制模式的构建分析[J].中国软科学,2007(8):85-93.FAN Zemeng,NIU Wenyuan,GU Jifa.Response Model andControl Pattern of the Social Emergency[J].China Soft Sci-ence,2007(8):85-93.
[32]邱仁义,刘冶.交通事故预测的灰色GM(1,1)模型[J].公路与汽运,2008(4):63-66.QIU Renyi,LIU Hongzhi.Modeling of GM(1,1)for TrafficAccident Forecast[J].Highways&Automotive Application,2008(4):63-66.
[33]袁媛,汪定伟.灾害扩散实时影响下的应急疏散路径选择模型[J].系统仿真学报,2008,20(6):1563-1566.YUAN Yuan,WANG Dingwei.Route Selection Model in E-mergency Evacuation under Real Time Effect of Disaster Exten-sion[J].Journal of System Simulation,2008,20(6):1563-1566.
[34]DAGANZUO C F.The Cell Transmission Model:A DynamicRepresentation of Highway Traffic Consistent with The Hydrody-namic Theory[J].Transportation Research Part B:Method-ological,1994,28B(4):269-287.
[35]DAGANZUO C F.The Cell Transmission Model,Part II:Net-work Traffic[J].Transportation Research Part B:Method-ological,1995,29B(2):79-93.
[36]姬杨蓓蓓,张小宁,孙立军.基于元胞传输模型的交通事件消散建模[J].重庆交通大学学报:自然科学版,2008,27(3):442-446.JIYANG Beibei,ZHANG Xiaoning,SUN Lijun.Modeling ofthe Traffic Incident Dissipation Based on Cell TransmissionModel[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Natu-ral Science Edition,2008,27(3):442-446.
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