中国东南地区塑性流动波与地震迁移(Ⅱ)
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摘要
由文 (Ⅰ ) (王绳祖等 ,2 0 0 3)已知 ,受网络波的控制 ,地震活动主要发生在能量相对聚集的波峰带内。文中根据地震释放的能量分布状况 ,进一步分析了能量沿波峰带法向的分布以及随传播距离的衰减 ,并基于发震概率与背景能量之间的对应关系 ,估计发震概率的分布状况。以此作为地震能量背景的概率表达和地震预测的依据之一 ,给出了中国东南地区与能量背景相关的发震概率分布图
It is known from the paper (Ⅰ) that earthquakes, controlled by the plastic flow waves, or called network waves, occur mainly in the wave crest belts in which energy concentrates relatively. Based on the distribution of earthquake released energy (Fig.1), the distribution of energy along the direction normal to wave crest belts (Fig.2) and the attenuation of energy with propagation distance (Fig.3) are analyzed further in this paper. In addition, the distribution of earthquake occurrence probabilities is estimated in consideration of its relation to the seismic background energy. As a result, the distribution map of earthquake occurrence probabilities associated with the seismic energy background in the southeastern China region (Fig.4) is given as one of the supports for earthquake prediction. The distribution of relative values of earthquake released energy along the direction normal to wave crest belt, p , is approximately shown as the Gaussian distribution (eq.1 and Fig.2), where Δ T=T-T av , T av is the average travel time for the wave crest belt, corresponding to the position of the belt's mid line, S is the standard error in travel time. The total energy for each wave crest belt, Σ E , attenuates as an exponential function of its travel time (Fig.3) and the tendency of the decrease in earthquake magnitude with increasing propagation distance can be expressed by the attenuation coefficient α . The distribution maps of wave crest belts given in the paper (Ⅰ) and the seismic energy background map expressed by earthquake occurrence probabilities given in this paper show the propagation characteristics of the network waves originated from the Taiwan driving boundary in the southeastern China region. The former can be used as a basis for preliminarily determining the seismic energy background zones and the latter is one of the bases for the quantitative prediction of seismic risk regions. Both of them will be examined in the practice of earthquake prediction and revised progressively to approach the actual situation of the propagation of plastic flow waves. As the "cloud chart" used for weather forecasting, showing the distribution of water necessary for precipitation, the seismic energy background map (Fig.4) provides an "energy chart" for earthquake prediction, showing the distribution of energy necessary for earthquakes. It is noteworthy that the seismic background "energy chart" can be established and used for earthquake prediction on the basis of the ideas of plastic flow network and plastic flow waves through other approaches, such as the inversions of ground deformation or other geophysical fields, in addition to the time space distribution of earthquakes stated in this paper. It may be more effective to synthesize the results obtained from different approaches for improving the reliability of the seismic "energy map".
It is known from the paper (Ⅰ) that earthquakes, controlled by the plastic flow waves, or called network waves, occur mainly in the wave crest belts in which energy concentrates relatively. Based on the distribution of earthquake released energy (Fig.1), the distribution of energy along the direction normal to wave crest belts (Fig.2) and the attenuation of energy with propagation distance (Fig.3) are analyzed further in this paper. In addition, the distribution of earthquake occurrence probabilities is estimated in consideration of its relation to the seismic background energy. As a result, the distribution map of earthquake occurrence probabilities associated with the seismic energy background in the southeastern China region (Fig.4) is given as one of the supports for earthquake prediction. The distribution of relative values of earthquake released energy along the direction normal to wave crest belt, p , is approximately shown as the Gaussian distribution (eq.1 and Fig.2), where Δ T=T-T av , T av is the average travel time for the wave crest belt, corresponding to the position of the belt's mid line, S is the standard error in travel time. The total energy for each wave crest belt, Σ E , attenuates as an exponential function of its travel time (Fig.3) and the tendency of the decrease in earthquake magnitude with increasing propagation distance can be expressed by the attenuation coefficient α . The distribution maps of wave crest belts given in the paper (Ⅰ) and the seismic energy background map expressed by earthquake occurrence probabilities given in this paper show the propagation characteristics of the network waves originated from the Taiwan driving boundary in the southeastern China region. The former can be used as a basis for preliminarily determining the seismic energy background zones and the latter is one of the bases for the quantitative prediction of seismic risk regions. Both of them will be examined in the practice of earthquake prediction and revised progressively to approach the actual situation of the propagation of plastic flow waves. As the "cloud chart" used for weather forecasting, showing the distribution of water necessary for precipitation, the seismic energy background map (Fig.4) provides an "energy chart" for earthquake prediction, showing the distribution of energy necessary for earthquakes. It is noteworthy that the seismic background "energy chart" can be established and used for earthquake prediction on the basis of the ideas of plastic flow network and plastic flow waves through other approaches, such as the inversions of ground deformation or other geophysical fields, in addition to the time space distribution of earthquakes stated in this paper. It may be more effective to synthesize the results obtained from different approaches for improving the reliability of the seismic "energy map".
引文
王绳祖,1996,地震多判据构造物理预测方法(TP法)研究。国家地震局地质研究所,地震科学联合基金会资助项目成果报告。
王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.2001a.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(Ⅰ)〔J〕.地震地质,23(3):407—418.
WANGSheng zu,LIJian guo,ZHANGZong chun.2001a.Experimentalstudyofplastic flowwavesinthelitho sphere(Ⅰ)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,23(3):407—418(inChinese).
王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.2001b.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(Ⅱ)〔J〕.地震地质,23(3):419—431.
WANGSheng zu,LIJian guo,ZHANGZong chun,2001b.Experimentalstudyofplastic flowwavesinthelitho sphere(Ⅱ)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,23(3):419—431(inChinese).
王绳祖,张四昌,田勤俭,等.2001c.大陆动力学:网状塑性流动与多级构造变形〔M〕.北京:地震出版社
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGSi chang,TIANQin jian,etal.2001c.ContinentalDynamics:NetlikePlasticFlowandHierarchicalTectonicDeformation〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinesewithEnglishsummary).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1994.大陆板内塑性流动波与地震迁移(1)〔J〕.地震地质,16(4):289—297.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1994.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationincontinentalplate(1)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,16(4):289—297(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1995.大陆板内塑性流动波与地震迁移(2)〔J〕.地震地质,17(2):123—131.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1995.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationincontinentalplate(2)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,17(2):123—131(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.2003.中国东南地区塑性流动波与地震迁移(Ⅰ)〔J〕.地震地质,25(2):227—236.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.2003.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationinSoutheastChina(Ⅰ)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,25(2):227—236(inChinese).
中国科学院数学研究所统计组.1973.常用数理统计方法〔M〕.北京:科学出版社.
GroupofStatistics,InstituteofMathematics,ChineseAcademyofSciences.1973.CommonMethodsofMathemati calStatistics〔M〕.SciencePress,Beijing(inChinese).
B thM .1973.IntroductiontoSeismology〔M〕.BirkhauserVerlag,BaselandStattgart.
WANGSheng zu.1991.Plastic flownetworkandseismicityincentralandeasternAsiacontinent〔A〕.In:Euro peanCentreonPreventionandForecastingofEarthquakes(ed).ScientificTechnicalContributions,Int.Conf.onEarthquakePrediction:State of theArt,Strasbourg,France,1518Oct.,1991.149—156.
WANGSheng zu.1993.Net likeearthquakedistributionandplastic flownetworkincentralandeasternAsia〔J〕.PhysEarthPlanetInter,77:177—188.
王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.2001a.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(Ⅰ)〔J〕.地震地质,23(3):407—418.
WANGSheng zu,LIJian guo,ZHANGZong chun.2001a.Experimentalstudyofplastic flowwavesinthelitho sphere(Ⅰ)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,23(3):407—418(inChinese).
王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.2001b.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(Ⅱ)〔J〕.地震地质,23(3):419—431.
WANGSheng zu,LIJian guo,ZHANGZong chun,2001b.Experimentalstudyofplastic flowwavesinthelitho sphere(Ⅱ)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,23(3):419—431(inChinese).
王绳祖,张四昌,田勤俭,等.2001c.大陆动力学:网状塑性流动与多级构造变形〔M〕.北京:地震出版社
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGSi chang,TIANQin jian,etal.2001c.ContinentalDynamics:NetlikePlasticFlowandHierarchicalTectonicDeformation〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinesewithEnglishsummary).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1994.大陆板内塑性流动波与地震迁移(1)〔J〕.地震地质,16(4):289—297.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1994.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationincontinentalplate(1)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,16(4):289—297(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1995.大陆板内塑性流动波与地震迁移(2)〔J〕.地震地质,17(2):123—131.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1995.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationincontinentalplate(2)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,17(2):123—131(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.2003.中国东南地区塑性流动波与地震迁移(Ⅰ)〔J〕.地震地质,25(2):227—236.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.2003.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationinSoutheastChina(Ⅰ)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,25(2):227—236(inChinese).
中国科学院数学研究所统计组.1973.常用数理统计方法〔M〕.北京:科学出版社.
GroupofStatistics,InstituteofMathematics,ChineseAcademyofSciences.1973.CommonMethodsofMathemati calStatistics〔M〕.SciencePress,Beijing(inChinese).
B thM .1973.IntroductiontoSeismology〔M〕.BirkhauserVerlag,BaselandStattgart.
WANGSheng zu.1991.Plastic flownetworkandseismicityincentralandeasternAsiacontinent〔A〕.In:Euro peanCentreonPreventionandForecastingofEarthquakes(ed).ScientificTechnicalContributions,Int.Conf.onEarthquakePrediction:State of theArt,Strasbourg,France,1518Oct.,1991.149—156.
WANGSheng zu.1993.Net likeearthquakedistributionandplastic flownetworkincentralandeasternAsia〔J〕.PhysEarthPlanetInter,77:177—188.
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