基于优势度的风险控制方案选择模型
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摘要
分析了单一参照指标选择风险控制方案存在的片面性,考虑样本在指标上的序关系及其差异程度,提出了基于优势度的风险控制方案多参照指标选择模型。模型中充分利用了数据所包含的信息,实现了专家主观因素与数据客观规律相结合的功能,并可通过调整权重向量突出某个指标在排序中的作用。以国际海事组织的油船和普通杂货船综合安全评估报告提供的风险控制方案为例,采用模型进行方案优选。分析结果表明:在各种权重向量下,算例1中方案2、5、6和算例2中方案1、2、3、6、13的优势度都较大,属于比较理想的方案;算例2中方案的优势度随着总灾难转移费用的不断增加而逐渐减小,总灾难转移费用可作为风险控制方案的优先选择指标。可见,模型具有较强的适应性。
The one-sidedness in selecting risk control option(RCO) with reference to single index was analyzed,and a multi-index selection model of RCOs based on dominance degree was proposed by considering the ranking and difference degrees of samples on indexes.The model combined the subjective factors of experts and data objectivity by fully employing information contained in data,and highlighted the function of certain index in the ranking of RCOs by adjusting weight vectors.RCOs in formal safety assessment reports on oil tankers and general cargo ships submitted to International Maritime Organization were taken as examples,and the model was applied in RCO optimization.Analysis result shows that the options 2,5,6 in example 1 have higher dominance degrees under all weight vectors,and the same is true of options 1,2,3,6,13 in example 2,and these RCOs are ideal options.The dominance degrees of options in example 2 decrease gradually with the increasing of gross cost of averting a facility(GCAF),and GCAF can be taken as a preferred selection index of RCOs.So the model has higher adaptability.4 tabs,1 fig,15 refs.
The one-sidedness in selecting risk control option(RCO) with reference to single index was analyzed,and a multi-index selection model of RCOs based on dominance degree was proposed by considering the ranking and difference degrees of samples on indexes.The model combined the subjective factors of experts and data objectivity by fully employing information contained in data,and highlighted the function of certain index in the ranking of RCOs by adjusting weight vectors.RCOs in formal safety assessment reports on oil tankers and general cargo ships submitted to International Maritime Organization were taken as examples,and the model was applied in RCO optimization.Analysis result shows that the options 2,5,6 in example 1 have higher dominance degrees under all weight vectors,and the same is true of options 1,2,3,6,13 in example 2,and these RCOs are ideal options.The dominance degrees of options in example 2 decrease gradually with the increasing of gross cost of averting a facility(GCAF),and GCAF can be taken as a preferred selection index of RCOs.So the model has higher adaptability.4 tabs,1 fig,15 refs.
引文
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[12]刘学生.基于粗集的不确定多属性决策排序法的研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2009.LIU Xue-sheng.Research on uncertain multiple attributedecision ranking based on rough sets[D].Dalian:DalianUniversity of Technology,2009.(in Chinese)
[13]LI U Xiao-dong,PEDRYCZ W,CHAI Tian-you,et al.Thedevelopment of fuzzy rough sets with the use of structuresand algebras of axiomatic fuzzy sets[J].IEEE Transactionson Knowledge and Data Engineering,2009,21(3):443-462.
[14]迟国泰,王钰娟,刘艳萍.基于三角模糊熵的经济评价模型及副省级城市的实证研究[J].运筹与管理,2010,19(5):107-117.CHI Guo-tai,WANG Yu-juan,LI U Yan-ping.Economic as-sessment model based on fuzzy entropy and empirical analysisof sub-provincial cities[J].Operations Research and Manage-ment Science,2010,19(5):107-117.(in Chinese)
[15]I MO.I ACS FSAstudy-steps 3 and 4(risk control options andcost benefit assessment)[R].London:I MO,2010.
[2]I MO.Possible i mprovements on FSA guidelines[R].London:I MO,2006.
[3]蔡垚.综合安全评估关键技术研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2010.CAI Yao.Key models study of formal safety assessment[D].Dalian:Dalian Mariti me University,2010.(in Chinese)
[4]I MO.Consolidated text of the guidelines for formal safetyassessment(FSA)for use in the I MO rule-making process(MSC/Circ.1023-MEPC/Circ.392)[R].London:I MO,2007.
[5]鲍君忠,刘正江.普通杂货船安全状况研究[J].中国航海,2010,33(1):56-70.BAOJun-zhong,LI UZheng-jiang.Study of the safety statusof general cargo ship[J].Navigation of China,2010,33(1):56-70.(in Chinese)
[6]I MO.Report of the mariti me safety committee on its eighty-seventh session[R].London:I MO,2010.
[7]I MO.Report of the marine environment protection committeeonits sixtieth session[R].London:I MO,2010.
[8]I MO.FSA-crude oil tankers[R].London:I MO,2008.
[9]李光明,殷国富,要小鹏.基于优势关系的质量功能展开中的顾客基本需求[J].计算机集成制造系统,2010,16(5):1061-1066.LI Guang-ming,YI N Guo-fu,YAO Xiao-peng.Basic cus-tomer requirements in quality function deployment based ondominance relation[J].Computer Integrated ManufacturingSystems,2010,16(5):1061-1066.(in Chinese)
[10]孔媛媛.基于优势关系粗糙集的空袭兵器判别[J].现代电子技术,2009(22):29-31.KONG Yuan-yuan.Dominance-based rough set approach toair-attack weapons identification[J].Modern ElectronicsTechnique,2009(22):29-31.(in Chinese)
[11]朱冰冰,吴绍春,王炜.以优势关系为基础的粗糙集在地震数据挖掘中的应用[J].计算机应用,2006,26(12):3023-3026.ZHU Bing-bing,WU Shao-chun,WANG Wei.Applicationof dominance rough set in seismology[J].Computer Applica-tions,2006,26(12):3023-3026.(in Chinese)
[12]刘学生.基于粗集的不确定多属性决策排序法的研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2009.LIU Xue-sheng.Research on uncertain multiple attributedecision ranking based on rough sets[D].Dalian:DalianUniversity of Technology,2009.(in Chinese)
[13]LI U Xiao-dong,PEDRYCZ W,CHAI Tian-you,et al.Thedevelopment of fuzzy rough sets with the use of structuresand algebras of axiomatic fuzzy sets[J].IEEE Transactionson Knowledge and Data Engineering,2009,21(3):443-462.
[14]迟国泰,王钰娟,刘艳萍.基于三角模糊熵的经济评价模型及副省级城市的实证研究[J].运筹与管理,2010,19(5):107-117.CHI Guo-tai,WANG Yu-juan,LI U Yan-ping.Economic as-sessment model based on fuzzy entropy and empirical analysisof sub-provincial cities[J].Operations Research and Manage-ment Science,2010,19(5):107-117.(in Chinese)
[15]I MO.I ACS FSAstudy-steps 3 and 4(risk control options andcost benefit assessment)[R].London:I MO,2010.
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