基于超越概率的海堤防御标准理论探讨
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摘要
针对海堤防御标准确定的重要性及复杂性,引入超越概率理论,提出了双灾害因素的组合超越概率理论分析方法,推导了双灾害因素组合重现期关系,并对海堤破坏因素进行物理分解分析后提出一段时间(使用期)内其遭遇出现的理论超越概率,进而从物理层面探讨了重现期关系。结果表明,遭遇双灾害因素事件,对确定的可靠度可采取多种重现期组合方式满足;当重现期组合关系满足1∶2.18时,双灾害因素同时出现的概率最大。
Aiming at the importance and difficulty of determination defense standard of sea dike,theoretical analysis with combination of two disasters factor is discussed based on exceedance probability theory.And combined relationship of return periods with two disasters is deduced.According to the decomposition and physical analysis of destroyed factors of sea dike,the theoretical exceedance probability in a period of time or life time is calculated.Finally,the relationship of return period is also discussed from physical layer.The results shows there are several combined relationships of return period for meeting deterministic confidence level when two disasters event appears;and it is the maximal probability that two disasters appear simultaneously when combined relationship of return periods attains 1∶2.18.
Aiming at the importance and difficulty of determination defense standard of sea dike,theoretical analysis with combination of two disasters factor is discussed based on exceedance probability theory.And combined relationship of return periods with two disasters is deduced.According to the decomposition and physical analysis of destroyed factors of sea dike,the theoretical exceedance probability in a period of time or life time is calculated.Finally,the relationship of return period is also discussed from physical layer.The results shows there are several combined relationships of return period for meeting deterministic confidence level when two disasters event appears;and it is the maximal probability that two disasters appear simultaneously when combined relationship of return periods attains 1∶2.18.
引文
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[3]刘志明,李维涛.海堤工程防潮标准研究[J].中国水利,2008(16):29-32,36.
[4]施熙灿,徐霞.“城市防洪标准选择”综述[J].自然灾害学报,1995(S1):218-227.
[5]徐长江.中英美三国设计洪水方法比较研究[J].人民长江,2005,36(1):24-26.
[6]李大鸣,陈海舟,范玉.国内外防洪减灾发展与现状[J].中国农村水利水电,2005(9):33-37.
[7]姚慰城.论上海地区海塘工程设计标准[J].上海水利,1996(4):4-9,21.
[8]高小旺,鲍霭斌.用概率方法确定抗震设防标准[J].建筑结构学报,1986(2):55-63.
[9]谢礼立,张晓志,周雍年.论工程抗震设防标准[J].地震工程与工程振动,1996,16(1):1-18.
[10]沈建文,刘峥,石树中.我国现行规范谱的超越概率标准[J].中国地震,2007,23(3):245-250.
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