基于Monte Carlo法的山区路网应急中心选址
摘要
阐述了灾时山区路网各路段组成单元通行概率的分析方法,采用Monte Carlo模拟法对山区路网连通可靠度进行分析和计算,并通过概率解析法来检验Monte Carlo模拟法的计算精度。采用Monte Carlo模拟法分析路网节点间连通可靠度,提出了灾时山区路网应急救护中心优化选址方法。最后,通过实例阐述其计算过程。结果表明:采用Monte Carlo模拟法分析山区路网交通节点间的连通可靠度,找出灾时山区路网连通薄弱环节,为山区应急救护中心优化选址提供依据。
Some analysis methods for the access probability of the mountainous road network component units were illuminated when disasters occurred.Monte Carlo simulation was applied to analyzing and calculating mountainous road network connectivity reliability.The calculation precision of Monte Carlo simulation was tested by probability analytic method.A optimization means for selecting the location of the emergency rescue center was provided by Monte Carlo simulation.Finally,calculated process was illustrated through numerical example.Results showed that some weak links of mountainous road network for connectivity could be obtained by Monte Carlo simulation.Selecting the optimum location for the emergency rescue center was of significance when disasters occurred.
Some analysis methods for the access probability of the mountainous road network component units were illuminated when disasters occurred.Monte Carlo simulation was applied to analyzing and calculating mountainous road network connectivity reliability.The calculation precision of Monte Carlo simulation was tested by probability analytic method.A optimization means for selecting the location of the emergency rescue center was provided by Monte Carlo simulation.Finally,calculated process was illustrated through numerical example.Results showed that some weak links of mountainous road network for connectivity could be obtained by Monte Carlo simulation.Selecting the optimum location for the emergency rescue center was of significance when disasters occurred.
引文
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[2]Fratta L,Montanari UG.Aboolean algebra method for computingthe terminal reliability in a communication network[J].IEEETrans.Circuit Theory,1973,20(3):203-211.
[3]宋建学,李杰.震后城市交通系统连通性模拟[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(1):73-78.SONG Jian-xue,LI Jie.Simulation on accessibility of post-earthquake urban transportation system[J].Journal of NaturalDisasters,1996,5(1):73-78.
[4]姜淑珍,柳春光.三亚市交通系统易损性分析[J].世界地震工程,2005,21(3):23-27.JIANG Shu-zhen,LIU Chun-guang.Vulnerability analysis oftransportation system in Sanya[J].World Earthquake Engineer-ing,2005,21(3):23-27.
[5]朱美珍.公路桥梁的震害预测的实用方法[J].同济大学学报,1994,22(3):21-26.ZHUMei-zhen.A practical method for predicting seismic dam-age of highway bridges[J].Journal of Tongji University,1994,22(3):21-26.
[6]王余庆,辛鸿博,高艳平,等.预测岩土边坡地震崩滑的综合指标法研究[J].岩土工程学报,2001,23(3):311-314.WANG Yu-qing,XINHong-bo,GAO Yan-ping,et al.Stud-y on comprehensive index method for predicting earthquake-in-duced landslides[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineer-ing,2001,23(3):311-314.
[7]李英民,王丽萍,刘立平.山地城市交通系统震害预测模型及其应用[J].西南交通大学学报,2009,44(2):171-176.LI Ying-min,WANG Li-ping,LIULi-ping.Predictive modelfor seismic damage of transportation system in mountain cities andits application[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2009,44(2):171-176.
[8]Meguro K,Hakuno M.Simulation of collapse of structure due toearthquake using the extended distinct element method[J].Pro-ceedings of Tenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,1992(7):3793-3796.
[9]金国梁.生命线工程网络震害预测方法讨论[J].工程抗震,1994,12(4):32-36.JIN Guo-liang.Discussion of network seismic damage predictionmethods for lifeline projects[J].Antiseismic Engineering,1994,12(4):32-36.
[10]柳春光,杜玮,瞿桐.城市交通系统抗震可靠性研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,1999,19(2):95-99.LIUChun-guang,DU Wei,ZHAI Tong.Reliability analysis ofurban transportation system[J].Earthquake Engineering and En-gineering Vibration,1999,19(2):95-99.
[11]陶小林.山地城市交通系统震害预测及应用研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2007.
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