基于不确定信息的震后道路抢修时序
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摘要
基于震后灾情信息的不确定性特点,提出了基于盲信息理论的路径费用表达和处理方法,通过对路径费用的盲数形式进行合理降阶,可获取一定可信度下的路径费用期望,并以此为基础,设计了多起点单讫点的简单路径搜索的分层算法,得到满足应急时限的有效路径。出于提高应急效率和减少伤亡的考虑,提出了通行能力保障系数的概念,用以量化各需求点与出救点的连通性,据此设计震后路径抢修排序算法。算例结果表明,提出的路径抢修排序算法合理,可为应急决策提供有效的支持。
Based on the uncertainty of post-earthquake information,proposed the expression method and processing technology of path cost based on blind information theory.Through reducing the order of Blind data form of path cost,can reach expected path cost under given credible degree.And based on this,designed a single origin-multi destination simple path search algorithm to obtain satisfied paths.To promote the emergency response efficiency and light casualties,put forward the concept of capacity ensuring parameter to quantize the continuity between requirement points and depots,and then provided a ranking method of road rapid repair.The numerical example demonstrated that the proposed ranking method was efficient and available,and can be used to support emergency response.
Based on the uncertainty of post-earthquake information,proposed the expression method and processing technology of path cost based on blind information theory.Through reducing the order of Blind data form of path cost,can reach expected path cost under given credible degree.And based on this,designed a single origin-multi destination simple path search algorithm to obtain satisfied paths.To promote the emergency response efficiency and light casualties,put forward the concept of capacity ensuring parameter to quantize the continuity between requirement points and depots,and then provided a ranking method of road rapid repair.The numerical example demonstrated that the proposed ranking method was efficient and available,and can be used to support emergency response.
引文
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[2]Fiedrich F,Gehbauer F,Richers U.Optimized re-source allocation for emergency response after earth-quake disasters[J].Safety Science,2000,35:41-57.
[3]Céline Thévenaz,Sandra L Resodihardjo.All the bestlaid plans conditions impeding proper emergency re-sponse[J].Int J Production Economics,2009,126:7-27.
[4]杨文国,黄钧,池宏,等.信息缺失下的应急方案选择模型及算法研究[J].中国管理科学,2007,15(增刊):729-732.Yang Wen-guo,Huang Jun,Chi Hong,et al.Thestudy on choosing emergency plan problem with in-complete information[J].Chinese Journal of Manage-ment Science,2007,15(Sup):729-732.
[5]刘开第,吴和琴,庞彦军,等.不确定性信息数学处理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[6]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[7]廖旭,高常波,韩绍欣.不同时刻地震直接人员伤亡人数的预测[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(4):92-96.Liao Xu,Gao Chang-bo,Han Shao-xin.Forecast ofdirect casualty caused by earthquake in the differenttime of a day[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1999,8(4):92-96.
[8]葛全胜,邹铭,郑景云,等.中国自然灾害风险综合估计初步研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[9]高建国.地震应急期的分期[J].灾害学,2004,19(1):11-15.Gao Jian-guo.Discussion on earthquake emergencyresponse term[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2004,19(1):11-15.
[10]李志纯,黄海军.随机交通分配中有效路径的确定方法[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2003,3(1):28-32.Li Zhi-chun,Huang Hai-jun.Determining the effi-cient paths in stochastic traffic assignment[J].Jour-nal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Infor-mation Technology,2003,3(1):28-32.
[11]王敏,钱勇生,王守宝.基于虚拟顶点最大流的城市路网通行能力算法[J].计算机工程与应用,2010,46(11),243-245.Wang Min,Qian Yong-sheng,Wang Shou-bao.Algo-rithm of urban traffic network capacity based on vir-tual vertices max-flow[J].Computer Engineering andApplications,2010,46(11),243-245.
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