基于模糊概率方法的软土隧道结构性态风险评估
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摘要
利用模糊数学中的模糊概率理论,建立了软土隧道结构性态的模糊概率综合评估模型。模型应用模糊权重的概念,充分考虑了权重的模糊性以避免权重取值的不确定性。结合影响软土隧道结构性态的主要因素,选取渗漏水范围、横向水平位移、隧道断面收敛位移和钢筋泄露电流密度为主要评估影响因子,同时将隧道结构性态风险等级划分为优秀、良好、一般和较差4个等级,进而使评估结果更为精细。算例分析表明了文中方法对软土隧道结构性态风险评估的合理性和有效性。
According to the fuzzy probability theory in fuzzy mathematics,a synthetical fuzzy probability evaluation model of soft soil tunnel structural performance is presented.In this model,the fuzzy weighted value is suggested to avoid the uncertainties while determining the weight factor.Combined with the main influence factors of the soft soil tunnel structural performance,the following factors such as leakage range,transverse horizontal displacement,tunnel sectional convergence displacement and reinforcement corrosion current density are selected as the evaluating indices;and tunnel structural performance risk grades are classified as excellent,good,general and poor,so the evaluation results can be more precise.The rationality and effectiveness of the method proposed is demonstrated through the example analysis of soft soil tunnel structure performance risk evaluation.
According to the fuzzy probability theory in fuzzy mathematics,a synthetical fuzzy probability evaluation model of soft soil tunnel structural performance is presented.In this model,the fuzzy weighted value is suggested to avoid the uncertainties while determining the weight factor.Combined with the main influence factors of the soft soil tunnel structural performance,the following factors such as leakage range,transverse horizontal displacement,tunnel sectional convergence displacement and reinforcement corrosion current density are selected as the evaluating indices;and tunnel structural performance risk grades are classified as excellent,good,general and poor,so the evaluation results can be more precise.The rationality and effectiveness of the method proposed is demonstrated through the example analysis of soft soil tunnel structure performance risk evaluation.
引文
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[9]景诗庭,朱永全,宋玉香.隧道结构可靠度[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2002.(Jing Shiting,ZhuYongquan,Song Yuxiang.The tunnel structure reliabil-ity[M].Beijing:China Railway Press,2012.(in Chi-nese))
[10]黄宏伟.隧道及地下工程建设中的风险管理研究进展[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):13-20.(Huang Hongwei.State-of-the-art of the research onrisk management in construction of tunnel and under-ground works[J].Chinese Journal of UndergroundSpace and Engineering,2006,2(1):13-20.(in Chi-nese))
[11]陈龙,黄宏伟.软土盾构隧道施工期风险损失分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):74-78.(Chen Long,Huang Hongwei.Risk loss analysis duringconstruction of soft soil shield tunnel[J].Chinese Jour-nal of Underground Space and Engineering,2006,2(1):74-78.(in Chinese))
[12]刘章军,李建林.岩爆综合预测的模糊概率方法[J].长江科学院院,2007,24(4):42-49.(LiuZhangjun,Li Jianlin.Comprehensive prediction methodfor rock burst based on fuzzy probability theory[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute.2007,24(4):42-49.(in Chinese))
[13]陈龙.城市软土盾构隧道施工期风险分析与评估研究[D].上海:同济大学,2004.(Chen Long.Risk a-nalysis and assessment during construction of soft soilshield tunnel in urban area[D].Shanghai:Tongji Uni-versity,2004.(in Chinese))
[2]卢阳,胡修文,郭礼波,等.模糊综合评判法在隧道地质超前预报中的应用[J].安全与环境工程,2010,17(1):116-119.(Lu Yang,Hu Xiuwen,GuoLibo,et al.Application of fuzzy comprehensive methodto tunnel geological prediction[J].Safety and Environ-mental Engineering,2010,17(1):116-119.(in Chi-nese))
[3]刘章军,雷进生.地铁深基坑支护方案优选的模糊概率方法[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2007,4(6):57-61.(Liu Zhangjun,Lei Jinsheng.Fuzzy probabilitymodel of supporting scheme for deep foundation pit ofmetro and its application[J].Journal of Railway Sci-ence and Engineering,2007,4(6):57-61.(in Chi-nese))
[4]刘章军,叶燎原,彭刚.砂土地震液化的模糊概率评判方法[J].岩土力学,2008,29(4):876-880.(Liu Zhangjun,Ye Liaoyuan,Peng Gang.Fuzzy proba-bility comprehensive evaluation method for sand lique-faction during earthquake[J].Rock and Soil Mechan-ics,2008,29(4):876-880.(in Chinese))
[5]汪培庄.模糊集合论及其应用[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1983.(Wang Peizhuang.The fuzzy settheory and its application[M].Shanghai:ShanghaiScience and Technology Press,1983.(in Chinese))
[6]杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用(第三版)[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,2001.(YangLunbiao,Gao Yingyi.Fuzzy sets and its applications[M].Guangzhou:South China University of Technolo-gy Press,2001.(in Chinese))
[7]贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津:天津科技出版社,1981.(He Zhongxiong.Fuzzy sets and its appli-cations[M].Tianjin:Tianjin Science and Technologypress,1981.(in Chinese))
[8]黄宏伟,陈龙,胡群芳,等.隧道及地下工程的全寿命风险管理[M].北京:科学出版社.2010.(HuangHongwei,Chen Long,Hu Qunfang,et al.The wholelife risk management of the tunnel and underground en-gineering[M].Beijing:Science Press,2010.(in Chi-nese))
[9]景诗庭,朱永全,宋玉香.隧道结构可靠度[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2002.(Jing Shiting,ZhuYongquan,Song Yuxiang.The tunnel structure reliabil-ity[M].Beijing:China Railway Press,2012.(in Chi-nese))
[10]黄宏伟.隧道及地下工程建设中的风险管理研究进展[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):13-20.(Huang Hongwei.State-of-the-art of the research onrisk management in construction of tunnel and under-ground works[J].Chinese Journal of UndergroundSpace and Engineering,2006,2(1):13-20.(in Chi-nese))
[11]陈龙,黄宏伟.软土盾构隧道施工期风险损失分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):74-78.(Chen Long,Huang Hongwei.Risk loss analysis duringconstruction of soft soil shield tunnel[J].Chinese Jour-nal of Underground Space and Engineering,2006,2(1):74-78.(in Chinese))
[12]刘章军,李建林.岩爆综合预测的模糊概率方法[J].长江科学院院,2007,24(4):42-49.(LiuZhangjun,Li Jianlin.Comprehensive prediction methodfor rock burst based on fuzzy probability theory[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute.2007,24(4):42-49.(in Chinese))
[13]陈龙.城市软土盾构隧道施工期风险分析与评估研究[D].上海:同济大学,2004.(Chen Long.Risk a-nalysis and assessment during construction of soft soilshield tunnel in urban area[D].Shanghai:Tongji Uni-versity,2004.(in Chinese))
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