山岭隧道塌方风险评价的属性识别模型与应用
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摘要
塌方是山岭隧道施工中最为常见的事故之一,为确保隧道施工安全,本文基于属性数学理论建立了隧道塌方风险分级的属性识别模型.在综合分析塌方影响因素的基础上,选取围岩级别、隧道埋深、偏压角度、岩体完整情况、地下水影响和施工因素6个主要因素作为评价指标,结合超前地质预报方法对指标进行定量描述,确定各评价指标的分级标准;对评价指标进行属性测度分析,通过构造属性测度函数计算样本的单指标属性测度和综合属性测度;应用置信度准则对隧道样本的塌方风险进行属性识别.在工程应用中,通过属性识别模型并结合超前地质预报数据,对郑家垭隧道进行塌方风险评估,结果与实际施工情况一致;并且与模糊层次分析法和可拓综合评估法的结果吻合性较好,说明建立的属性识别模型对有无地质预报数据的样本都能得出准确的风险评估结果,有更好的适用性,为山岭隧道塌方的风险评估提供了一个有效的途径.
The occurrence of collapse is common in tunnels construction.In order to ensure the construction safety of mountain tunnels,attribute recognition model based on attribute mathematical theory was developed for assessment of collapse in tunnels.By comprehensively considering the influencing factors of the collapse,the surrounding rock grade,tunnel depth,angle of unsymmetrical pressure,rock mass integrity,groundwater status and construction factor were selected as the indexes for the risk assessment of the collapse.A quantitative analysis of the indexes by the data of tsp was studied and the criteria for the classification were determined.Attribute measurement functions were rigorously constructed to compute attribute measurement of single index and synthetic attribute measurement.The identification and classification of risk assessment of mountain tunnel samples were recognized by the confidence criterion.An exemplification study of Zheng Jiaya tunnel showed that the assessment results obtained through attribute measurement analysis and the date of geological forecast agreed well with the tunnel construction.The assessment results agreed well with the results obtained by the FAHP and extension assessment method,and the attribute measurement analysis model can be drawn on accurate risk assessment results whether the geological forecast data provides an effective way to assess the collapse risk of the tunnel.
The occurrence of collapse is common in tunnels construction.In order to ensure the construction safety of mountain tunnels,attribute recognition model based on attribute mathematical theory was developed for assessment of collapse in tunnels.By comprehensively considering the influencing factors of the collapse,the surrounding rock grade,tunnel depth,angle of unsymmetrical pressure,rock mass integrity,groundwater status and construction factor were selected as the indexes for the risk assessment of the collapse.A quantitative analysis of the indexes by the data of tsp was studied and the criteria for the classification were determined.Attribute measurement functions were rigorously constructed to compute attribute measurement of single index and synthetic attribute measurement.The identification and classification of risk assessment of mountain tunnel samples were recognized by the confidence criterion.An exemplification study of Zheng Jiaya tunnel showed that the assessment results obtained through attribute measurement analysis and the date of geological forecast agreed well with the tunnel construction.The assessment results agreed well with the results obtained by the FAHP and extension assessment method,and the attribute measurement analysis model can be drawn on accurate risk assessment results whether the geological forecast data provides an effective way to assess the collapse risk of the tunnel.
引文
[1]李术才,薛翊国,张庆松,等.高风险岩溶地区隧道施工地质灾害综合预报预警关键技术研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,28(7):1297-1307Li Shucai,Xue Yiguo,Zhang Qingsong,et al.Key technology study on comprehensive prediction and early-warning ofgeological hazards during tunnel construction in high-risk karst areas[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2008,28(7):1297-1307
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[3]张庆松,李术才,韩宏伟,等.岩溶隧道施工风险评价与灾害防治技术研究[J].山东大学学报(工学版),2009,39(3):106-110Zhang Qingsong,Li Shucai,Han Hongwei,et al.Study on risk evaluation and water inrush disaster preventingtechnology during construction of karst tunnels[J].Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science),2009,39(3):106-110
[4]钱七虎,戎晓力.中国地下工程安全风险管理的现状、问题及相关建议[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(4):649-655Qian Qihu,Rong Xiaoli.State issues and relevant recommendations for security risk management of China’sunderground engineering[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(4):649-655
[5]黄宏伟.隧道及地下工程建设中的风险管理研究进展[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):13-20Huang Hongwei.State-of-the-art of the research on risk management in construction of tunnel andunderground works[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2006,2(1):13-20
[6]陈龙,黄宏伟.岩石隧道工程风险浅析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(1):110-115Chen Long,Huang Hongwei.Risk analysis of rocktunnel engineering[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2005,24(1):110-115
[7]SEN Degn Eskesen,Tengborg PER,JGEN Kampmann,et al.Guidelines for tunnelling risk management:International tunnelling association,working group No.2[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,2004,19:217-237
[8]Cancelli A,Crosta G.Hazardand risk assessment in rock fall proneareas.In:Risk and reliability in ground engineering[M].London:Institute of Civil Engineering;1993:177-90
[9]Einstein H H.Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(2):141-155
[10]Shin Hyusoung,Kwon Youngcheul,Jung Yongsoo,et al.Methodology for quantitative hazard assessment for tunnelcollapses based on case histories in Korea[J]International Journal of Rock Mechanics&Mining Sciences,2009,(46):1072-1087
[11]Alan N Beard.Tunnel safety,risk assessment and decision-making[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,2010,(25):91-94
[12]Rita L Sousa,Herbert H Einstein.Risk analysis during tunnel construction using Bayesian Networks Porto Metro case[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,2011,27(1):1-15
[13]Benardos A G,Kaliampakos D C.A methodology for assessing geotechnical hazards for TBM tunnelling-illustrated by theAthens Metro,Greece[J].Int J Rock Mech Min Sci,2004,41:987-99
[14]Ondrˇej Nvlt,Samuel Prívara,LukáFerkl.Probabilistic risk assessment of highway tunnels[J].Tunnelling andUnderground Space Technology,2011,(26):71-82
[15]沈荣喜,吴秀仪,刘长武,等.海底隧道施工过程中突水风险研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2008,32(3):385-388Shen Rongxi,Wu Xiuyi,Liu Changwu,et al.Research of water inrush on subsea tunnel construction[J].Journal ofWuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science&Engineering),2008,32(3):385-388
[16]许振浩,李术才,李利平,等.基于层次分析法的岩溶隧道突水突泥风险评估[J].岩土力学,2011,32(6):1757-1765Xu Zhenhao,Li Shucai,Li Liping,et al.Risk assessment of water or mud inrush of karst tunnels based on analytichierarchy process[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2011,32(6):1757-1765
[17]李利平,李术才,陈军,等.基于岩溶突涌水风险评价的隧道施工许可机制及其应用研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2011,30(7):1345-1354Li Liping,Li Shucai,Chen Jun,et al.Construction license mechanism and its application based on comprehensive riskevaluation[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2011,30(7):1345-1354
[18]王燕,黄宏伟,薛亚东.钻爆法施工隧道塌方风险分析[J].沈阳建筑大学学报(自然科学版),2009,25(1):23-27Wang Yan,Huang Hongwei,Xue Yadong.Risk analysis of collapse for tunnels constructed by drill and blast metohd[J].Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University(Nutural Science),2009,25(1):23-27
[19]周建昆,吴坚.岩石公路隧道塌方风险事故树分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2008,4(6):991-998Zhou Jiankun,Wu Jian.Fault tree analysis of the collapse risk in rock highway tunnel[J].Chinese Journal ofUnderground Space and Engineering,2008,4(6):991-998
[20]陈洁金,周峰,阳军生,等.山岭隧道塌方风险模糊层次分析[J].岩土力学,2009,30(8):2365-2370Chen Jiejin,Zhou Feng,Yang Junsheng,et al.Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for risk evaluation of collapse duringconstruction of mountain tunnel[J].Rockand Soil Mechanics,2009,30(12):3622-3626
[21]安永林,彭立敏,吴波,等.隧道坍方突发性事件风险可拓法综合评估[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,42(2):514-520An Yonglin,Peng Limin,Wu Bo,et al.Comprehensive extension assessment on tunnel collapse risk[J].Journal ofCentral South University(Science and Technology),2011,42(2):514-520
[22]彭立敏,安永林,张运良,等.可拓法识别勘测阶段隧道瓦斯突出的模型与实例[J].土木工程学报,2008,41(4):81-85Peng Limin,An Yonglin,Zhang Yunliang,et al.Identifying degree of gas ejection based extension theory in tunnel atprospecting stage:a case study[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2008,41(4):81-85
[23]曹树刚,王艳平,刘延保,等.基于危险源理论的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评价模型[J].煤炭学报,2006,31(4):470-474Cao Shugang,Wang Yanping,Liu Yanbao,et al.Risk assessmentmodel of gas explosion in coal mine based on thehazard theory[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2006,31(4):470-474
[24]聂百胜,何学秋,王恩元,等.煤与瓦斯突出预测技术研究现状及发展趋势[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(6):40-43Nie Baisheng,He Xueqiu,Wang Enyuan,et al.Present situation and progress trend of prediction technology of coal andgas outburst[J].China Safety Science Journal,2003,13(6):40-43
[25]中华人民共和国建设部.建质[2007]254号地铁及地下工程建设风险管理指南[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2007Ministry of construction of the People’s Republic of China.Guideline of risk management for construction of subwayand underground works[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2007
[26]程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),1997,33(1):12-20Cheng Qiansheng.Attribute recognition theoretical model with application[J].Universitatis Pekinnensis,ActaScientianrum Naturalium,1997,33(1):12-20
[27]程乾生.属性集和属性综合评价系统[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997,17(9):1-8Cheng Qiansheng.Attribute sets and attribute synthetic assessment system[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,1997,17(9):1-8
[28]文畅平,杨果林.基于属性数学理论的岩土边坡地震稳定性评价[J].中国铁道科学,2010,31(5):8-14Wen Changping,Yang Guolin.The seismic stability evaluation of the rock and soil slope based on the attributemathematical theory[J].China Railway Science,2010,31(5):8-14
[29]许振浩,李术才,张庆松,等.TSP超前地质预报地震波反射特性研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2008,4(4):640-644Xu Zhenhao,Li Shucai,Zhang Qingsong,et al.Reflection characteristic of seismic wave in TSP advance geologicalprediction[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2008,4(4):640-644
[30]邱道宏,李术才,张乐文,等.基于TSP203系统和GA-SVM的围岩超前分类预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(增1):3221-3226Zhang Daohong,Li Shucai,Zhang Lewen,et al.Prediction of surrounding rock classification in advance based onTSP203 system and GA-SVM[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(s1):3221-3226
[2]李术才,李树忱,张庆松,等.岩溶裂隙水与不良地质情况超前预报研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(2):217-225Li Shucai,Li Shuchen,Zhang Qingsong,et al.Forcast of karst-fractured groundwater and defective geological conditions[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(2):217-225
[3]张庆松,李术才,韩宏伟,等.岩溶隧道施工风险评价与灾害防治技术研究[J].山东大学学报(工学版),2009,39(3):106-110Zhang Qingsong,Li Shucai,Han Hongwei,et al.Study on risk evaluation and water inrush disaster preventingtechnology during construction of karst tunnels[J].Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science),2009,39(3):106-110
[4]钱七虎,戎晓力.中国地下工程安全风险管理的现状、问题及相关建议[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(4):649-655Qian Qihu,Rong Xiaoli.State issues and relevant recommendations for security risk management of China’sunderground engineering[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(4):649-655
[5]黄宏伟.隧道及地下工程建设中的风险管理研究进展[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):13-20Huang Hongwei.State-of-the-art of the research on risk management in construction of tunnel andunderground works[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2006,2(1):13-20
[6]陈龙,黄宏伟.岩石隧道工程风险浅析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(1):110-115Chen Long,Huang Hongwei.Risk analysis of rocktunnel engineering[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2005,24(1):110-115
[7]SEN Degn Eskesen,Tengborg PER,JGEN Kampmann,et al.Guidelines for tunnelling risk management:International tunnelling association,working group No.2[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,2004,19:217-237
[8]Cancelli A,Crosta G.Hazardand risk assessment in rock fall proneareas.In:Risk and reliability in ground engineering[M].London:Institute of Civil Engineering;1993:177-90
[9]Einstein H H.Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(2):141-155
[10]Shin Hyusoung,Kwon Youngcheul,Jung Yongsoo,et al.Methodology for quantitative hazard assessment for tunnelcollapses based on case histories in Korea[J]International Journal of Rock Mechanics&Mining Sciences,2009,(46):1072-1087
[11]Alan N Beard.Tunnel safety,risk assessment and decision-making[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,2010,(25):91-94
[12]Rita L Sousa,Herbert H Einstein.Risk analysis during tunnel construction using Bayesian Networks Porto Metro case[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,2011,27(1):1-15
[13]Benardos A G,Kaliampakos D C.A methodology for assessing geotechnical hazards for TBM tunnelling-illustrated by theAthens Metro,Greece[J].Int J Rock Mech Min Sci,2004,41:987-99
[14]Ondrˇej Nvlt,Samuel Prívara,LukáFerkl.Probabilistic risk assessment of highway tunnels[J].Tunnelling andUnderground Space Technology,2011,(26):71-82
[15]沈荣喜,吴秀仪,刘长武,等.海底隧道施工过程中突水风险研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2008,32(3):385-388Shen Rongxi,Wu Xiuyi,Liu Changwu,et al.Research of water inrush on subsea tunnel construction[J].Journal ofWuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science&Engineering),2008,32(3):385-388
[16]许振浩,李术才,李利平,等.基于层次分析法的岩溶隧道突水突泥风险评估[J].岩土力学,2011,32(6):1757-1765Xu Zhenhao,Li Shucai,Li Liping,et al.Risk assessment of water or mud inrush of karst tunnels based on analytichierarchy process[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2011,32(6):1757-1765
[17]李利平,李术才,陈军,等.基于岩溶突涌水风险评价的隧道施工许可机制及其应用研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2011,30(7):1345-1354Li Liping,Li Shucai,Chen Jun,et al.Construction license mechanism and its application based on comprehensive riskevaluation[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2011,30(7):1345-1354
[18]王燕,黄宏伟,薛亚东.钻爆法施工隧道塌方风险分析[J].沈阳建筑大学学报(自然科学版),2009,25(1):23-27Wang Yan,Huang Hongwei,Xue Yadong.Risk analysis of collapse for tunnels constructed by drill and blast metohd[J].Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University(Nutural Science),2009,25(1):23-27
[19]周建昆,吴坚.岩石公路隧道塌方风险事故树分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2008,4(6):991-998Zhou Jiankun,Wu Jian.Fault tree analysis of the collapse risk in rock highway tunnel[J].Chinese Journal ofUnderground Space and Engineering,2008,4(6):991-998
[20]陈洁金,周峰,阳军生,等.山岭隧道塌方风险模糊层次分析[J].岩土力学,2009,30(8):2365-2370Chen Jiejin,Zhou Feng,Yang Junsheng,et al.Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for risk evaluation of collapse duringconstruction of mountain tunnel[J].Rockand Soil Mechanics,2009,30(12):3622-3626
[21]安永林,彭立敏,吴波,等.隧道坍方突发性事件风险可拓法综合评估[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,42(2):514-520An Yonglin,Peng Limin,Wu Bo,et al.Comprehensive extension assessment on tunnel collapse risk[J].Journal ofCentral South University(Science and Technology),2011,42(2):514-520
[22]彭立敏,安永林,张运良,等.可拓法识别勘测阶段隧道瓦斯突出的模型与实例[J].土木工程学报,2008,41(4):81-85Peng Limin,An Yonglin,Zhang Yunliang,et al.Identifying degree of gas ejection based extension theory in tunnel atprospecting stage:a case study[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2008,41(4):81-85
[23]曹树刚,王艳平,刘延保,等.基于危险源理论的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评价模型[J].煤炭学报,2006,31(4):470-474Cao Shugang,Wang Yanping,Liu Yanbao,et al.Risk assessmentmodel of gas explosion in coal mine based on thehazard theory[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2006,31(4):470-474
[24]聂百胜,何学秋,王恩元,等.煤与瓦斯突出预测技术研究现状及发展趋势[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(6):40-43Nie Baisheng,He Xueqiu,Wang Enyuan,et al.Present situation and progress trend of prediction technology of coal andgas outburst[J].China Safety Science Journal,2003,13(6):40-43
[25]中华人民共和国建设部.建质[2007]254号地铁及地下工程建设风险管理指南[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2007Ministry of construction of the People’s Republic of China.Guideline of risk management for construction of subwayand underground works[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2007
[26]程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),1997,33(1):12-20Cheng Qiansheng.Attribute recognition theoretical model with application[J].Universitatis Pekinnensis,ActaScientianrum Naturalium,1997,33(1):12-20
[27]程乾生.属性集和属性综合评价系统[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997,17(9):1-8Cheng Qiansheng.Attribute sets and attribute synthetic assessment system[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,1997,17(9):1-8
[28]文畅平,杨果林.基于属性数学理论的岩土边坡地震稳定性评价[J].中国铁道科学,2010,31(5):8-14Wen Changping,Yang Guolin.The seismic stability evaluation of the rock and soil slope based on the attributemathematical theory[J].China Railway Science,2010,31(5):8-14
[29]许振浩,李术才,张庆松,等.TSP超前地质预报地震波反射特性研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2008,4(4):640-644Xu Zhenhao,Li Shucai,Zhang Qingsong,et al.Reflection characteristic of seismic wave in TSP advance geologicalprediction[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2008,4(4):640-644
[30]邱道宏,李术才,张乐文,等.基于TSP203系统和GA-SVM的围岩超前分类预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(增1):3221-3226Zhang Daohong,Li Shucai,Zhang Lewen,et al.Prediction of surrounding rock classification in advance based onTSP203 system and GA-SVM[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(s1):3221-3226
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