对“关于“可操作性地震预报:有关‘为什么’和‘怎么办’的几点思考”的另一种见解”的答复
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摘要
<正>在民间传说中,"银弹"是杀死狼人和女巫的有效武器。在地震预测中,"银弹"就是"具有诊断价值的前兆",即地震前观测到的以高概率表明即将来临地震事件的时间、地点和震级的信号[1]。Crampin[2]在其述评中声称,剪切波分裂(SWS)观测提供了一枚"银弹"。由此,他断言地震学能够将地震预
引文
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    [2]Crampin S.Asecond opinion on“Operational earthquake forecasting:Some thoughts on why and how,”by Thomas H.Jordan and Lucile M.Jones.Seismological Research Letters,2011,82(2):227-230
    [3]Jordan T H,Jones L M.Operational earthquake forecasting:Some thoughts on why and how.Seismo-logical Research Letters,2010,81(4):571-574
    [4]Crampin S,Evans R,Atkinson B K.Earthquake prediction:Anew physical basis.Geophysical JournalInternational,1984,76:147-156
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    [6]Seher T,Main I G.Astatistical evaluation of a“stress-forecast”earthquake.Geophysical Journal Inter-national,2004,157:187-193
    [7]Aster R C,Shearer P M,Berger J.Quantitative measurements of shear wave polarizations at the AnzaSeismic Network,Southern California:I mplications for shear wave splitting and earthquake prediction.Journal of Geophysical Research,1990,95:12499-12473
    [8]Aster R C,Shearer P M,Berger J.Reply.Journal of Geophysical Research,1991,96:6415-6419
    [9]Ryall A,Savage W U.S-wave splitting:Key to earthquake prediction?Bulletin of the Seismological So-ciety of America,1973,64:1943-1951
    [10]Geller RJ.Earthquake prediction:Acritical review.Geophysical Journal International,1997,131:425-450
    [11]Jordan T H,Chen Y-T,Gasparini P,et al.Operational Earthquake Forecasting:State of Knowledgeand Guidelines for I mplementation.Findings and Recommendations of the International Commission onEarthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection,released by the Diparti mento della Protezione Civile,Rome,Italy,2 October 2009
    [12]Zechar J D,Schorlemmer D,Liukis M,et al.The Collaboratoryfor the Study of Earthquake Predictabil-ity perspectives on computational earth science.Concurrency&Computation:Practice and Experience,2009,22:1836-1847;doi:10.1002/cpe.1519

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