交通事故下出行者非理性出行行为研究
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摘要
基于前景理论,研究交通事故下出行者路径选择行为规律.应用前景理论,考虑交通事故的发生概率,以出行者出行总花费时间作为出行效用,提出出行者路径选择的效用函数;然后通过分析出行者效用函数的分布规律,在出行效用连续随机分布的条件下,建立出行者感知效用模型.通过连续函数离散化方法构建出行者路径选择模型.通过一个算例,描述非理性条件下出行者选择行为,并分析交通事故的特征对效用值和选择结果的影响,说明感知效用为0的参考点并不是路径实际效用分布的期望值,而是比期望值小.
Based on prospect theory, travelers' route choice behavior under traffic incident is studied. First,utility function of travelers' route choice is proposed applying prospect theory, and total travel time is taken as utility, considering probability of traffic incident. Then, after analysis the distribution regularity of utility function, travelers' perception utility is modeled considering the utility obeying continuous random distribution. Through discrete series for continuous function, route choice model is built. A case study is conducted to describe the route choice behavior, and the influence of characteristic of traffic incident to utility and choice result are analyzed, which illustrates that the reference point when perception utility equals to zero is not the expectation of actual utility distribution, less than the expectation.
Based on prospect theory, travelers' route choice behavior under traffic incident is studied. First,utility function of travelers' route choice is proposed applying prospect theory, and total travel time is taken as utility, considering probability of traffic incident. Then, after analysis the distribution regularity of utility function, travelers' perception utility is modeled considering the utility obeying continuous random distribution. Through discrete series for continuous function, route choice model is built. A case study is conducted to describe the route choice behavior, and the influence of characteristic of traffic incident to utility and choice result are analyzed, which illustrates that the reference point when perception utility equals to zero is not the expectation of actual utility distribution, less than the expectation.
引文
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[15]陈艳艳,王光远.考虑供需随机性的道路交通系统震害引发损失期望评估[J].世界地震工程.2003,19(1):25-30.[CHEN Y Y,WANG G Y.Theestimation of indirect loss expectation after earthquakeconsidering randomness of traffic demand and supply[J].World Earthquake Engineering.2003,19(1):25-30.]
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[18]Tversky A,Kahneman D.Advances in prospect theory:cumulative representation of uncertainty[J].Journal ofRisk and Uncertainty,1992,5(4):297-323.
[19]Neilson W,Stowe J.A further examination of cumulativeprospect theory parameterizations[J].Journal of Riskand Uncertainty,2002,24(1):31-46.
[2]Jou R C,Lam S H,Liu Y H,et al.Route switchingbehavior on freeways with the provision of differenttypes of real-time traffic information[J].TransportationResearch Part A,2005,39(5):445-461.
[3]Knoop V L.Road incidents and network dynamicseffects on driving behaviour and traffic congestion[M].Netherland:TRAIL Research School,2009.
[4]Kusakabe T,Sharyo T,Asakura Y.Effects of trafficincident information on drivers’route choice behaviourin urban expressway network[J].Procedia-Social andBehavioral Sciences,2012,54(4):179-188.
[5]Erke A,Sagberg F,Hagman R.Effects of route guidancevariable message signs(VMS)on driver behavior[J].Transportation Research Part F,2007,10(6):447-457.
[6]Guattari C,Blasiis M R D,Calvi A.The effectiveness ofvariable message signs information:A drivingsimulation study[J].Procedia-Social and BehavioralSciences,2012,53(3):692-702.
[7]Ma Z L,Shao C F,Song Y,et al.Driver response toinformation provided by variable message signs inBeijing[J].Transportation Research Part F,2014,26:199-209.
[8]Simon H A.A behavioral model of rational choice[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1955,69(1):99-118.
[9]Kahneman D,Tversky A.Prospect theory:An analysis ofdecision under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-292.
[10]Avineri E.The effect of reference point on stochasticnetwork equilibrium[J].Transportation Science,2006,40(4):409-420.
[11]Connors R D,Sumalee A.A network equilibrium modelwith travellers’perception of stochastic travel times[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2009,43(6):614-624.
[12]张波,隽志才,林徐勋.基于累积前景理论的随机用户均衡交通分配模型[J].西南交通大学学报,2011,46(5):868-874.[ZHANG B,JUAN Z C,LIN X X.Stochastic user equilibrium model based on cumulativeprospect theory[J].Journal of Southwest JiaotongUniversity,2011,46(5):868-874.]
[13]刘玉印,刘伟铭,田世艳.出行者有限理性条件下混合策略网络均衡模型[J].公路交通科技,2011,28(7):136-141.[LIU Y Y,LIU W M,TIANS Y.Network equilibrium model with mixed strategiesunder bounded rationality[J].Journal of Highway andTransportation Research and Development,2011,28(7):136-141.]
[14]徐红利,周晶,徐薇.考虑参考点依赖的随机网络用户均衡与系统演化[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(12):2283-2289.[XU H L,ZHOU J,XU W.Stochastic network user equilibrium and systemevolution with dependence on reference point[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2010,30(12):2283-2289.]
[15]陈艳艳,王光远.考虑供需随机性的道路交通系统震害引发损失期望评估[J].世界地震工程.2003,19(1):25-30.[CHEN Y Y,WANG G Y.Theestimation of indirect loss expectation after earthquakeconsidering randomness of traffic demand and supply[J].World Earthquake Engineering.2003,19(1):25-30.]
[16]Sawalha1 B Z,Sayed T.Evaluating safety of urbanarterial roadways[J].Journal of TransportationEngineering,2001,127(2):151-158.
[17]Li J B,Lan C J,Gu X J.Estimation of incident delay andits uncertainty on freeway networks[J].TransportationResearch Record,2006,1959(5):37-45.
[18]Tversky A,Kahneman D.Advances in prospect theory:cumulative representation of uncertainty[J].Journal ofRisk and Uncertainty,1992,5(4):297-323.
[19]Neilson W,Stowe J.A further examination of cumulativeprospect theory parameterizations[J].Journal of Riskand Uncertainty,2002,24(1):31-46.
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