应用最优化模型分析活断层与地震的关系
|
摘要
文中应用基于“多态”前兆模式及效能评价的最优效能单项模型参数选择方法,分析了3个地震带活断层(Qp3—Qh)与地震(M≥6)空间分布之间的关系。结果表明,河套地震带地震较集中分布在距断层20km的范围内,用其对6级以上地震进行地点预测有较高的准确性,R值达0.5,而对祁连山地震带30km范围内地震的发生地点进行预测,R值却仅为0.14。
The gestation and occurrence of strong earthquake are closely related to fault activity, which are not only revealed by abundant experimentation and seismism but also proved by modern seismology. In the mainland of China, the correlation between earthquake activity and active fault is one of the bases for partitioning potential seismic sources, analyzing the seismotectonics and estimating location of strong earthquake.Due to nonuniformity of earth medium, instability of observation system and disturbance of environment etc, the variety of observational data is complicated, that is, there is no absolute “normal” or “abnormal”, and seismic anomaly can be divided into many mutually exclusive “abnormal states”. In different conditions of combined time-space-strength, determining the seismic anomaly by different monomial forecast method and its efficiency could be different due to the uncertainty of precursor itself or complexity of relation between precursor and earthquake gestation. In a “two-state” model, the difference could hardly be discovered and disposed in actual application. But in the “multi-state” model, the difference can be easily reflected and the optimal combination of forecasting parameters for a forecast method can also be determined easily.Based on the “multi-state” precursory model and the optimization method for parameters of earthquake forecast model under the condition of maximization of forecast efficiency, the relations of spatial location of earthquakes with M≥6 and active faults in three seismic belts are analyzed. The results demonstrate that in the Hetao Seismic Belt, seismicity is mostly concentrated in the range of 20km along the fault, the optimization model can forecast the location of potential earthquake of M≥6 near the faults with a relatively high accuracy, and the reliability value is 0.5; while in the Qilan Mt Seismic Belt, the reliability only reaches 0.14 when we use the model to estimate earthquakes within 30km range along the faults. The “multi-state” precursory model, the efficiency-evaluating model and the parameter selection of individual earthquake forecast model based on optimal efficiency are of certain revelatory and practicable meanings for developing knowledge about precursors, questing the laws of earthquake preparation and searching for optimal forecasting method.
The gestation and occurrence of strong earthquake are closely related to fault activity, which are not only revealed by abundant experimentation and seismism but also proved by modern seismology. In the mainland of China, the correlation between earthquake activity and active fault is one of the bases for partitioning potential seismic sources, analyzing the seismotectonics and estimating location of strong earthquake.Due to nonuniformity of earth medium, instability of observation system and disturbance of environment etc, the variety of observational data is complicated, that is, there is no absolute “normal” or “abnormal”, and seismic anomaly can be divided into many mutually exclusive “abnormal states”. In different conditions of combined time-space-strength, determining the seismic anomaly by different monomial forecast method and its efficiency could be different due to the uncertainty of precursor itself or complexity of relation between precursor and earthquake gestation. In a “two-state” model, the difference could hardly be discovered and disposed in actual application. But in the “multi-state” model, the difference can be easily reflected and the optimal combination of forecasting parameters for a forecast method can also be determined easily.Based on the “multi-state” precursory model and the optimization method for parameters of earthquake forecast model under the condition of maximization of forecast efficiency, the relations of spatial location of earthquakes with M≥6 and active faults in three seismic belts are analyzed. The results demonstrate that in the Hetao Seismic Belt, seismicity is mostly concentrated in the range of 20km along the fault, the optimization model can forecast the location of potential earthquake of M≥6 near the faults with a relatively high accuracy, and the reliability value is 0.5; while in the Qilan Mt Seismic Belt, the reliability only reaches 0.14 when we use the model to estimate earthquakes within 30km range along the faults. The “multi-state” precursory model, the efficiency-evaluating model and the parameter selection of individual earthquake forecast model based on optimal efficiency are of certain revelatory and practicable meanings for developing knowledge about precursors, questing the laws of earthquake preparation and searching for optimal forecasting method.
引文
邓起东,张培震,冉勇康,等.2003.中国活动构造与地震活动[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):66—73.DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Pei-zhen,RAN Yong-kang,et al.2003.Active tectonics and earthquake activities in China[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):66—73(in Chinese).
国家地震局震害防御司编.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[Z].北京:地震出版社.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,SSB.1995.Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquake(from2300BC to1911AD)[Z].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
马胜利,刘力强,马瑾,等.2003.基于实验结果讨论断层破裂与强震物理过程的若干问题[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):225—232.MA Sheng-li,LIU Li-qiang,MA Jin,et al.2003.A discussion on related issues of physical process of faulting andstrong earthquake based on experimental results[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):225—232(in Chi-nese).
邵辉成,谢家树,王平,等.1996.地震资料精度和完整性对地震危险性参数的影响[J].地震学报,18(4):494—501.SHAO Hui-cheng,XIE Jia-shu,WANG Ping,et al.1996.Effects of magnitude accuracy and completeness of data onseismic hazard parameters[J].ACTA Seismologica Sinica,18(4):494—501(in Chinese).
石雅镠,张晓东,金声震,等.2005.地震预测的信度方法[J].中国地震,21(4):457—462.SHI Ya-liu,ZHANG Xiao-dong,JIN Sheng-zhen,et al.2005.Methodology of belief measure applying to earthquakeprediction[J].Earthquake Research in China,21(4):457—462(in Chinese).
王晓青.2000.R值用于地震预测效能评估中的问题与改进[J].中国地震,16(3):256—262.WANG Xiao-qing.2000.The problem and improvement of R-values applied to the assessment of earthquake forecast[J].Earthquake Research in China,16(3):256—262(in Chinese).
王晓青,丁香.2002.强震时-空综合概率增益模型与中长期预测方法效能研究[J].中国地震,18(4):246—255.WANG Xiao-qing,DING Xiang.2002.The spatial-temporal synthetic probability gain model and the study of efficien-cy of medium-and long-term earthquake prediction methods[J].Earthquake Research in China,18(4):246—255(in Chinese).
王晓青,傅征祥,张立人,等.2000.中长期地震时空概率增益预测模型及其在华北地区的应用[J].地震学报,22(1):45—53.WANG Xiao-qing,FU Zheng-xiang,ZHANG Li-ren,et al.2000.Model of spatial and temporal synthetic probabilitygains for medium and long-term earthquake forecast and its preliminary application[J].ACTASeismological Sin-ica,22(1):45—53(in Chinese).
王晓青,邵辉成,丁香.2004.地震预测模型优化方法研究[J].地震,24(2):53—58.WANG Xiao-qing,SHAO Hui-cheng,DING Xiang.2004.Study on efficiency evaluation and optimization of earthquakeforecast method[J].Earthquake,24(2):53—58(in Chinese).
张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.2001.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社.333—365.ZHANG Guo-min,FU Zheng-xiang,GUI Xie-tai,et al.2001.Introduction of Earthquake Prediction[M].SciencePress,Beijing.333—365(in Chinese).
张培震,王敏,甘卫军,等.2003.GPS观测的活动断裂滑动速率及其对现今大陆动力作用的制约[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):81—92.ZHANG Pei-zhen,WANG Min,GAN Wei-jun,et al.2003.Slip rate along major active faults from GPS measure-ments and constraints on contemporary continental tectonics[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):81—92(inChinese).
中国地震局震害防御司编.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912—1990年,MS≥4.7)[Z].北京:中国科学技术出版社.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,CEA.1999.Catalogue of Chinese Recent Earthquake(from1912to1990,MS≥4.7)[Z].Science and Technology Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
国家地震局震害防御司编.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[Z].北京:地震出版社.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,SSB.1995.Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquake(from2300BC to1911AD)[Z].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
马胜利,刘力强,马瑾,等.2003.基于实验结果讨论断层破裂与强震物理过程的若干问题[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):225—232.MA Sheng-li,LIU Li-qiang,MA Jin,et al.2003.A discussion on related issues of physical process of faulting andstrong earthquake based on experimental results[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):225—232(in Chi-nese).
邵辉成,谢家树,王平,等.1996.地震资料精度和完整性对地震危险性参数的影响[J].地震学报,18(4):494—501.SHAO Hui-cheng,XIE Jia-shu,WANG Ping,et al.1996.Effects of magnitude accuracy and completeness of data onseismic hazard parameters[J].ACTA Seismologica Sinica,18(4):494—501(in Chinese).
石雅镠,张晓东,金声震,等.2005.地震预测的信度方法[J].中国地震,21(4):457—462.SHI Ya-liu,ZHANG Xiao-dong,JIN Sheng-zhen,et al.2005.Methodology of belief measure applying to earthquakeprediction[J].Earthquake Research in China,21(4):457—462(in Chinese).
王晓青.2000.R值用于地震预测效能评估中的问题与改进[J].中国地震,16(3):256—262.WANG Xiao-qing.2000.The problem and improvement of R-values applied to the assessment of earthquake forecast[J].Earthquake Research in China,16(3):256—262(in Chinese).
王晓青,丁香.2002.强震时-空综合概率增益模型与中长期预测方法效能研究[J].中国地震,18(4):246—255.WANG Xiao-qing,DING Xiang.2002.The spatial-temporal synthetic probability gain model and the study of efficien-cy of medium-and long-term earthquake prediction methods[J].Earthquake Research in China,18(4):246—255(in Chinese).
王晓青,傅征祥,张立人,等.2000.中长期地震时空概率增益预测模型及其在华北地区的应用[J].地震学报,22(1):45—53.WANG Xiao-qing,FU Zheng-xiang,ZHANG Li-ren,et al.2000.Model of spatial and temporal synthetic probabilitygains for medium and long-term earthquake forecast and its preliminary application[J].ACTASeismological Sin-ica,22(1):45—53(in Chinese).
王晓青,邵辉成,丁香.2004.地震预测模型优化方法研究[J].地震,24(2):53—58.WANG Xiao-qing,SHAO Hui-cheng,DING Xiang.2004.Study on efficiency evaluation and optimization of earthquakeforecast method[J].Earthquake,24(2):53—58(in Chinese).
张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.2001.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社.333—365.ZHANG Guo-min,FU Zheng-xiang,GUI Xie-tai,et al.2001.Introduction of Earthquake Prediction[M].SciencePress,Beijing.333—365(in Chinese).
张培震,王敏,甘卫军,等.2003.GPS观测的活动断裂滑动速率及其对现今大陆动力作用的制约[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):81—92.ZHANG Pei-zhen,WANG Min,GAN Wei-jun,et al.2003.Slip rate along major active faults from GPS measure-ments and constraints on contemporary continental tectonics[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):81—92(inChinese).
中国地震局震害防御司编.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912—1990年,MS≥4.7)[Z].北京:中国科学技术出版社.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,CEA.1999.Catalogue of Chinese Recent Earthquake(from1912to1990,MS≥4.7)[Z].Science and Technology Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心