华北地区700年来地壳应力场演化与地震的关系研究
摘要
目前地震断层相互作用问题已引起地震学家的广泛关注。许多研究表明一条断层的破裂可以影响附近其他断层趋于破裂的进程 ,两条断层间的确切作用取决于它们的相对位置、破裂机制、错动量和介质力学性质。本研究给出了华北地区 70 0年来由于长期构造加载及地震断层错动导致的累积库仑破裂应力变化 (ΔCCFS)的演化过程。长期构造加载场由GPS观测得到的地壳平均应变率场给出。关于历史地震断层破裂参数的估算 ,根据的是华北地区有现代仪器记录的大震资料归算地震烈度与断层破裂长度、震级和地震矩的统计关系 ;根据地质调查得到的地震断层走向、倾角以及本地区的构造应力场方向估计滑动角。考虑粘弹性成层介质地壳模型 ,计算长期构造加载和地震形变 (同震及震后介质粘弹性驰豫变形 )造成的累积应力场变化。将累积应力场变化投影到后续地震断层面和滑动方向上得到ΔCCFS ,并研究其对后续地震发生的触发作用。对 130 3年以来华北地区发生的 4 9个M≥ 6 5地震研究结果表明 :ΔCCFS对 4 8个后续地震中的 38个有触发作用 ,触发率达到 79 2 %。应用当今累积应力场变化于华北地区 130 3年～ 2 0 0 3年发生的M≥ 5地震 ,我们发现触发率达到 75 5 % ,于 1976年以来发生的M≥ 5地震触发率达 82 1%。未被触发的地震中
Fault interaction and earthquake occurrence have attracted much attention in seismological community during recent years. Many studies showed that rupture of one fault could encourage or discourage earthquake nucleation on a neighboring fault, depending on the relative geometry of the two faults and the earthquake rupture mechanisms. In this paper, we simulate the evolution process of cumulative Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCCFS) in North China since 1303, manifested by secular tectonic stress loading and occurrence of large earthquakes. Secular tectonic stress loading is averaged from crustal strain rates derived from GPS. Fault rupture parameters of historical earthquakes are estimated as follows: the earthquake rupture length and the amount of slip are derived based on their statistical relationships with the earthquake intensity distribution and magnitude, calibrated using parameters of instrumental measured contemporary earthquakes. The earthquake rake angle is derived based on geologically determined fault setting parameters and seismically estimated orientation of regional tectonic stresses. Assuming a layered visco-elastic medium, we calculate stress evolution resulted from secular tectonic loading and coseismic and postseismic deformation. On the eve of each large earthquake, the accumulated stress field is project to the fault surface of that earthquake and the ΔCCFS is evaluated to assess the triggering effect of ΔCCFS 49 earthquakes with M≥6.5 occurred in North China since 1303. Statistics shows that 39 out of the 48 subsequent events were triggered by positive ΔCCFS, yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. If we use the accumulative stress field to evaluate the ΔCCFS for the M≥5 earthquakes occurred in North China since 1303,we find that 75.5% of those events were triggered. The triggering rate for the M≥5 earthquakes after the 1976 Ninghe earthquake is up to 82.1%. The triggering rates can be higher if corrections are made for some aftershocks which were wrongly identified as occurred in stress shadow zones because of errors in parameter estimates of historical earthquakes. Our study shows very high correlation between positive ΔCCFS and earthquake occurrences. Relatively high ΔCCFS in North China at present time is concentrated around the Bohai Sea, the west segment of the Northern Qinling fault, western end of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic zone, and the Taiyuan basin, Shanxi graben, suggesting relatively higher earthquake potential in these areas.
Fault interaction and earthquake occurrence have attracted much attention in seismological community during recent years. Many studies showed that rupture of one fault could encourage or discourage earthquake nucleation on a neighboring fault, depending on the relative geometry of the two faults and the earthquake rupture mechanisms. In this paper, we simulate the evolution process of cumulative Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCCFS) in North China since 1303, manifested by secular tectonic stress loading and occurrence of large earthquakes. Secular tectonic stress loading is averaged from crustal strain rates derived from GPS. Fault rupture parameters of historical earthquakes are estimated as follows: the earthquake rupture length and the amount of slip are derived based on their statistical relationships with the earthquake intensity distribution and magnitude, calibrated using parameters of instrumental measured contemporary earthquakes. The earthquake rake angle is derived based on geologically determined fault setting parameters and seismically estimated orientation of regional tectonic stresses. Assuming a layered visco-elastic medium, we calculate stress evolution resulted from secular tectonic loading and coseismic and postseismic deformation. On the eve of each large earthquake, the accumulated stress field is project to the fault surface of that earthquake and the ΔCCFS is evaluated to assess the triggering effect of ΔCCFS 49 earthquakes with M≥6.5 occurred in North China since 1303. Statistics shows that 39 out of the 48 subsequent events were triggered by positive ΔCCFS, yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. If we use the accumulative stress field to evaluate the ΔCCFS for the M≥5 earthquakes occurred in North China since 1303,we find that 75.5% of those events were triggered. The triggering rate for the M≥5 earthquakes after the 1976 Ninghe earthquake is up to 82.1%. The triggering rates can be higher if corrections are made for some aftershocks which were wrongly identified as occurred in stress shadow zones because of errors in parameter estimates of historical earthquakes. Our study shows very high correlation between positive ΔCCFS and earthquake occurrences. Relatively high ΔCCFS in North China at present time is concentrated around the Bohai Sea, the west segment of the Northern Qinling fault, western end of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic zone, and the Taiyuan basin, Shanxi graben, suggesting relatively higher earthquake potential in these areas.
引文
李铁明、沈正康、徐杰等,2004,华北地区Ms≥65地震震源断层参数的研究,地震学报,待发表
刘瑞丰,2004,私人通讯
白武明、林帮慧、陈祖安,2003,1976年唐山大地震发生对华北地区各块体运动与变形影响的数值模拟研究,中国科学(D辑),32(12):99～107。
陈修启、张国民,1988.强震孕育及高潮中成串地震发生的数学模拟分析,八十年代中国地球物理学进展,83～99,北京:地震出版社。
邓起东、张培震、冉勇康等,2002,中国活动构造基本特征,中国科学(D辑),32(12):1020～1030。
杜兴信、邵辉成,1999,由震源机制解反演中国大陆现代构造应力场,地震学报,21(4):354～360。
DUXingxin,SHAOHuicheng,1999,ModerntectonicstressfieldintheChinesemainlandinvertedfromfocalmechanismsolutions.ActaSeismologicaSinica,12(4):390～397.
冯锐、朱介寿、丁韫玉等,1981,利用地震面波研究中国地壳结构,地震学报,3(4):335～350。
黄福明、陈修启,1992,大震广义影响场的讨论,地震学报,14(4),400～406。
HUANGFuming,CHENXiuqi,1992,Discussiononthegeneralizedinfluenceaffectedfieldoflargeearthquakes[J].ActaSeismologicaSinica,6(1):49～58.
李松林、张先康、宋占隆等,2001,多条人工测深剖面联合反演首都圈三维地壳结构,地球物理学报,44(3):360～368。
刘桂萍、傅征祥,2000,1976年7月28日唐山7.8级地震触发的区域地震活动和静态应力场变化,地震学报,22(1),17～26。
LIUGuiping,FUZhengxiang.2000.RegionalseismicitytriggeredbytheMS=78TangshaneventonJuly28,1976andthestaticstressfieldchange[J].ActaSeismologicaSinica,13(1):19～28.
沈正康、王敏、甘卫军等,2003,中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究,地学前缘,10(增刊):93～100。
石耀霖,2001,关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考,地震,21(3):1～7。
孙荀英、刘激扬、王仁,1994,1976年唐山地震震时和震后变形的模拟,地球物理学报,37(1):45～55。
藤吉文、姚虹、周海南,1979.北京、天津、唐山和张家口地区的地壳构造,地球物理学报,22(3):218～235。
王仁、何国琦、殷有泉等,1980,华北地区地震迁移规律的数学模拟,地震学报,2(1):32～42。
张先康、赵金仁、刘国华等,2002,三河-平谷80级大震区震源细结构的深地震反射探测研究,中国地震,18(4):326～336。
ZHANGXian,ZHAOJinren,LIUGuohua,etal.2003.StudyonfinestructureoftheSanhe-Pingguearthquake(M80)regionbydeepseismicreflectionprofiling.EarthquakeresearchinChina,17(2):122～133.
张文佑、汪一鹏、李兴唐,1984,华北断块区的形成与发展,见张文佑主编《华北断块区的形成与发展》,北京:科学出版社,1～8。
国家地震局震害防御司,1995,中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～1911),P514,北京:地震出版社。
中国地震局震害防御司,1999,中国近代地震(Ms>47)目录(1912～1990),P637,北京:中国科学技术出版社
AkiK ,RichardsPG .1980.QuantitativeseismologytheorynadmethodsVolⅠ&Ⅱ.SanFrancisco:WHFreemanandcompany,932pp.
BenZionY ,RiceJR ,DmowskaR .1993.InteractionoftheSanAndreasfaultcreepingsegmentwithadjacentgreatrupturezonesandearthquakerecurrenceatParkfield.J .Geophys.Res.,98:2135～2144.
DengJ,SykesLR .1997.EvolutionofthestressfieldinsouthernCaliforniaandtriggeringofmoderate sizeearthquakes:A 200 yearperspective.J .Geophys.Res.,102:9859～9886.
DragoniM ,TallaricoA .1992.Interactionbetweenseismicandaseismicslipalongatranscurrentplateboundary:Amodelforaseismicsequences.PhysEarthPlanetInter,72:49～57.
FreedAM ,LinJ.2001.Delayedtriggeringofthe1999HectorMineearthquakebyviscoelasticstresstransfer.Nature,411:180～183.
HarrisRA .1998.Introductiontospecialsection:Stresstriggers,stressshadows,andimplicationsforseismichazard.J .Geophys.Res.,103:24347～24358.
HarrisRA ,SimpsonRW .1996.Intheshadowof1857—TheeffectofthegreatFt.TejonearthquakeonsubsequentearthquakesinsouthernCalifornia.Geophys.Res.Lett.,23:229～232.
KeilisBorokVI,KnopoffL ,RotvainIM .1980.Burstsofaftershocks,long termprecursorsofstrongearthquakes.Nature,283:259～263.
LucoJE ,ApselRJ .1983.OntheGreen’sfunctionforalayeredhalf space,partI .Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,73:909～929.
NalbantSS ,HubertA ,KingGCP .1998.StresscouplingbetweenearthquakesinnorthwestTurkeyandthenorthAegeanSea.J .Geophys.Res.,103:24469～24486.
NurA ,MavkoG .1974,Postseismicviscoelasticrebound.Science,183:204～206.
OkadaY .1992.Internaldeformationduetoshearandtensilefaultsinahalf space.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,82:1018～1040.
NurA ,MavkoG .1974,Postseismicviscoelasticrebound.Science,183:204～206.
PapadimitriouEE ,SykesLR .2001.EvolutionofthestressfieldinthenorthernAegeanSea(Greece).Geophys.J .Int.,146:747～759.
PollitzFF .1992.Postseismicrelaxationtheoryonthesphericalearth.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,82:422～453.
PollitzFF ,SacksIS .1997.The1995Kobe,Japan,earthquake:Along delayedaftershockoftheoffshore1944Tonankaiand1946Nankaidoearthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,87:1～10.
RydelekPA ,SacksIS .1990.Asthenosphericviscosityandstressdiffusion:amechanismtoexplaincorrelatedearthquakesandsurfacedeformationinNEJapan.Geophys.J .Int.,100:39～58.
Shi,Y .,GengL .,andZhangG .,1994.Non lineardynamicmodelingofearthquakeprediction,inNewmanWI .,GabrielovA .,andTurcotteDL .eds.:Nonlineardynamicsandpredictabilityofgeophysicalphenomena,GeophysicalMonograph83,IUGGv.18,81～89.
SteinRS .1999.Theroleofstresstransferinearthquakeoccurrence.Nature,402:605～609.
SteinRS ,BarkaAA ,DieterichJH .1997.ProgressivefailureontheNorthAnatolianfaultsince1939byearthquakestresstriggering.Geophys.J.Int.,128:594～604.
USGeologicalSurvey,SouthernCaliforniaEarthquakeCenter,CaliforniaDivisionofMinesandGeology.2000.Preliminaryreportonthe16October1999M71HectorMine,California,earthquake.Seismol.Res.Lett.,71:11～23.
WaldDJ ,HeatonTH .1994.Spatialandtemporaldistributionofslipforthe1992Landers,Californiaearthquake.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,84:668～69.
WardSN .1998a.Ontheconsistencyofearthquakemomentrates,geologicalfaultdata,andspacegeodeticstrain:TheUnitedStates.GeophysJInt,134:172～186.
WardSN .1998b.Ontheconsistencyofearthquakemomentreleaseandspacegeodeticstrainrates:Europe.GeophysJInt,135:1011～1018.
ZengY .2001.Viscoelasticstress triggeringofthe1999HectorMineearthquakebythe1992Landersearthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,28:3007～3010.
刘瑞丰,2004,私人通讯
白武明、林帮慧、陈祖安,2003,1976年唐山大地震发生对华北地区各块体运动与变形影响的数值模拟研究,中国科学(D辑),32(12):99～107。
陈修启、张国民,1988.强震孕育及高潮中成串地震发生的数学模拟分析,八十年代中国地球物理学进展,83～99,北京:地震出版社。
邓起东、张培震、冉勇康等,2002,中国活动构造基本特征,中国科学(D辑),32(12):1020～1030。
杜兴信、邵辉成,1999,由震源机制解反演中国大陆现代构造应力场,地震学报,21(4):354～360。
DUXingxin,SHAOHuicheng,1999,ModerntectonicstressfieldintheChinesemainlandinvertedfromfocalmechanismsolutions.ActaSeismologicaSinica,12(4):390～397.
冯锐、朱介寿、丁韫玉等,1981,利用地震面波研究中国地壳结构,地震学报,3(4):335～350。
黄福明、陈修启,1992,大震广义影响场的讨论,地震学报,14(4),400～406。
HUANGFuming,CHENXiuqi,1992,Discussiononthegeneralizedinfluenceaffectedfieldoflargeearthquakes[J].ActaSeismologicaSinica,6(1):49～58.
李松林、张先康、宋占隆等,2001,多条人工测深剖面联合反演首都圈三维地壳结构,地球物理学报,44(3):360～368。
刘桂萍、傅征祥,2000,1976年7月28日唐山7.8级地震触发的区域地震活动和静态应力场变化,地震学报,22(1),17～26。
LIUGuiping,FUZhengxiang.2000.RegionalseismicitytriggeredbytheMS=78TangshaneventonJuly28,1976andthestaticstressfieldchange[J].ActaSeismologicaSinica,13(1):19～28.
沈正康、王敏、甘卫军等,2003,中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究,地学前缘,10(增刊):93～100。
石耀霖,2001,关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考,地震,21(3):1～7。
孙荀英、刘激扬、王仁,1994,1976年唐山地震震时和震后变形的模拟,地球物理学报,37(1):45～55。
藤吉文、姚虹、周海南,1979.北京、天津、唐山和张家口地区的地壳构造,地球物理学报,22(3):218～235。
王仁、何国琦、殷有泉等,1980,华北地区地震迁移规律的数学模拟,地震学报,2(1):32～42。
张先康、赵金仁、刘国华等,2002,三河-平谷80级大震区震源细结构的深地震反射探测研究,中国地震,18(4):326～336。
ZHANGXian,ZHAOJinren,LIUGuohua,etal.2003.StudyonfinestructureoftheSanhe-Pingguearthquake(M80)regionbydeepseismicreflectionprofiling.EarthquakeresearchinChina,17(2):122～133.
张文佑、汪一鹏、李兴唐,1984,华北断块区的形成与发展,见张文佑主编《华北断块区的形成与发展》,北京:科学出版社,1～8。
国家地震局震害防御司,1995,中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～1911),P514,北京:地震出版社。
中国地震局震害防御司,1999,中国近代地震(Ms>47)目录(1912～1990),P637,北京:中国科学技术出版社
AkiK ,RichardsPG .1980.QuantitativeseismologytheorynadmethodsVolⅠ&Ⅱ.SanFrancisco:WHFreemanandcompany,932pp.
BenZionY ,RiceJR ,DmowskaR .1993.InteractionoftheSanAndreasfaultcreepingsegmentwithadjacentgreatrupturezonesandearthquakerecurrenceatParkfield.J .Geophys.Res.,98:2135～2144.
DengJ,SykesLR .1997.EvolutionofthestressfieldinsouthernCaliforniaandtriggeringofmoderate sizeearthquakes:A 200 yearperspective.J .Geophys.Res.,102:9859～9886.
DragoniM ,TallaricoA .1992.Interactionbetweenseismicandaseismicslipalongatranscurrentplateboundary:Amodelforaseismicsequences.PhysEarthPlanetInter,72:49～57.
FreedAM ,LinJ.2001.Delayedtriggeringofthe1999HectorMineearthquakebyviscoelasticstresstransfer.Nature,411:180～183.
HarrisRA .1998.Introductiontospecialsection:Stresstriggers,stressshadows,andimplicationsforseismichazard.J .Geophys.Res.,103:24347～24358.
HarrisRA ,SimpsonRW .1996.Intheshadowof1857—TheeffectofthegreatFt.TejonearthquakeonsubsequentearthquakesinsouthernCalifornia.Geophys.Res.Lett.,23:229～232.
KeilisBorokVI,KnopoffL ,RotvainIM .1980.Burstsofaftershocks,long termprecursorsofstrongearthquakes.Nature,283:259～263.
LucoJE ,ApselRJ .1983.OntheGreen’sfunctionforalayeredhalf space,partI .Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,73:909～929.
NalbantSS ,HubertA ,KingGCP .1998.StresscouplingbetweenearthquakesinnorthwestTurkeyandthenorthAegeanSea.J .Geophys.Res.,103:24469～24486.
NurA ,MavkoG .1974,Postseismicviscoelasticrebound.Science,183:204～206.
OkadaY .1992.Internaldeformationduetoshearandtensilefaultsinahalf space.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,82:1018～1040.
NurA ,MavkoG .1974,Postseismicviscoelasticrebound.Science,183:204～206.
PapadimitriouEE ,SykesLR .2001.EvolutionofthestressfieldinthenorthernAegeanSea(Greece).Geophys.J .Int.,146:747～759.
PollitzFF .1992.Postseismicrelaxationtheoryonthesphericalearth.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,82:422～453.
PollitzFF ,SacksIS .1997.The1995Kobe,Japan,earthquake:Along delayedaftershockoftheoffshore1944Tonankaiand1946Nankaidoearthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,87:1～10.
RydelekPA ,SacksIS .1990.Asthenosphericviscosityandstressdiffusion:amechanismtoexplaincorrelatedearthquakesandsurfacedeformationinNEJapan.Geophys.J .Int.,100:39～58.
Shi,Y .,GengL .,andZhangG .,1994.Non lineardynamicmodelingofearthquakeprediction,inNewmanWI .,GabrielovA .,andTurcotteDL .eds.:Nonlineardynamicsandpredictabilityofgeophysicalphenomena,GeophysicalMonograph83,IUGGv.18,81～89.
SteinRS .1999.Theroleofstresstransferinearthquakeoccurrence.Nature,402:605～609.
SteinRS ,BarkaAA ,DieterichJH .1997.ProgressivefailureontheNorthAnatolianfaultsince1939byearthquakestresstriggering.Geophys.J.Int.,128:594～604.
USGeologicalSurvey,SouthernCaliforniaEarthquakeCenter,CaliforniaDivisionofMinesandGeology.2000.Preliminaryreportonthe16October1999M71HectorMine,California,earthquake.Seismol.Res.Lett.,71:11～23.
WaldDJ ,HeatonTH .1994.Spatialandtemporaldistributionofslipforthe1992Landers,Californiaearthquake.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,84:668～69.
WardSN .1998a.Ontheconsistencyofearthquakemomentrates,geologicalfaultdata,andspacegeodeticstrain:TheUnitedStates.GeophysJInt,134:172～186.
WardSN .1998b.Ontheconsistencyofearthquakemomentreleaseandspacegeodeticstrainrates:Europe.GeophysJInt,135:1011～1018.
ZengY .2001.Viscoelasticstress triggeringofthe1999HectorMineearthquakebythe1992Landersearthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,28:3007～3010.
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