R/S分析及其在地震磁效应研究中的应用
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摘要
将重标极差法(R/S,Rescaled range analysis)这一时间序列分析方法引入到地震地磁前兆观测资料的处理和分析当中,并应用该方法对陕西关中地区3个地磁台站在1996~1998年间Z分量观测数据进行处理。分析了地磁Z分量赫斯特指数变化与1998年1月5日泾阳MS4.8地震的关系,发现地震前2~4个月地磁Z分量出现明显小于0.5的异常变化,背离了地磁场正常的长程相关趋势性增强的变化规律,预示了此次地震的发生。这些结果表明该方法能够挖掘出丰富的地磁前兆信息,在地震前兆观测资料的非线性处理中具有良好的应用前景。
The rescaled range analysis which is a method of time series analysis introduced into process and analysis of geomagnetic data.Using this method,the mean daily values of vertical component of geomagnetic field at the Jingyang,Qianling and Zhouzhi geomagnetic stations in the Guangzhong region during 1996～1998 are processed,to analysis the relationship between variations of Hurst exponent of Z component and the Jingyang M_S4.8 earthquake occurred on January 5,1998.2～4 months before the earthquakes,the Hurst exponent of Z components at the Jiangyang and Qianling station is less than 0.5,deviating from the normal variation of the long distance correlativity with an enhanced trend and foreshowing earthquake's occurrence.Those results indicate that the R/S analysis method can extract useful seismomagnetic precursor,and has potential and prospect in the nonlinear processing of seismic precursory observational data.
The rescaled range analysis which is a method of time series analysis introduced into process and analysis of geomagnetic data.Using this method,the mean daily values of vertical component of geomagnetic field at the Jingyang,Qianling and Zhouzhi geomagnetic stations in the Guangzhong region during 1996～1998 are processed,to analysis the relationship between variations of Hurst exponent of Z component and the Jingyang M_S4.8 earthquake occurred on January 5,1998.2～4 months before the earthquakes,the Hurst exponent of Z components at the Jiangyang and Qianling station is less than 0.5,deviating from the normal variation of the long distance correlativity with an enhanced trend and foreshowing earthquake's occurrence.Those results indicate that the R/S analysis method can extract useful seismomagnetic precursor,and has potential and prospect in the nonlinear processing of seismic precursory observational data.
引文
陈佩燕,1997,非线性参数H值和ΔH值在强震预报中的应用,地震学报,19(2),145~153。
陈棋福、马丽、陈建民等,1994,地震前兆观测资料的分形处理方法,中国地震,10(1),47~53。
丁鉴海、卢振业、黄雪香,1994,地震地磁学,北京:地震出版社,220~284。
杜兴信,1987,兰州-西安-郑州电导率异常带,地震学报,9(3),282~288。
付昱华、付安捷,2004,改进的R/S方法与中国火灾数据的分析预测,中国工程科学,6(5),39~44。
李强、徐桂明,2002,江苏及邻区地震频次的Hurst指数分析,西北地震学报,24(3),247~250。
赵明、曾小苹、林云芳,1997,对1989年3月13日磁暴的非线性分析,地震地磁观测与研究,18(3),56~50。
施红俊、马玉林、陈伟忠,2004,中国股市长记忆性实证研究,同济大学学报,32(3),416~420。
王碧泉、黄汉明、范洪顺等,1995,非线性R/S方法研究及其在地震预测中的应用,地震学报,17(4),528-532。
王卫东,2002a,泾阳4.8级地震的构造背景,西北地震学报,24(2),145~149。
王卫东,2002b,泾阳MS4.8级地震的发震构造与破裂特征,地震学报,24(5),552~555。
吴富春、段锋、柯昌安等,2000,1998年泾阳4.8级地震的一些特征,西北地震学报,22(1),53~57。
杨涛、刘庆生、付媛媛等,2005,泾阳MS4.8级地震磁效应高阶统计量方法研究,地震,25(1),97~102。
袁学城,1996,中国地球物理图集,北京:地质出版社,94~106。
张继红,1997,分数维在地磁方法中的应用,地震研究,20(4),398~401。
庄新田、庄新路、田莹,2003,Hurst指数及股市的分形结构,东北大学学报(自然科学版),24(9),862~865
Feder J.,1988,Fractals,New York:Plenum Press,283.
Jacobsen B.,1996,Long term dependence in stock returns,Journal of Empirical Finance,3(4),393~417.
Kikuchi R.,Tsutsumi A.,2001,Characterization of nonlinear dynamics in a circulating fluidized bed by rescaled range analysis andshort-term predictability analysis,Chemical Engineering Science,56(23),6545~6552.
Matos J.M.O.,Moura E.P.,Krüger S.E.et al.,2004,Rescaled range analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis study of cast ironsultrasonic backscattered signals,Chaos,Solitons and Fractals,19(1),55~60.
Mueller R.J.,Johnston M.J.S.,1998,Review of magnetic field monitoring near active faults and volcanic calderas in California:1974-1995,Phys.Earth Planet.Int.,105,131~144.
Stacey F.D.,1963,Seismomagnetic effect and the possibility of forecasting earthquakes,Nature,200,1083~1085.
陈棋福、马丽、陈建民等,1994,地震前兆观测资料的分形处理方法,中国地震,10(1),47~53。
丁鉴海、卢振业、黄雪香,1994,地震地磁学,北京:地震出版社,220~284。
杜兴信,1987,兰州-西安-郑州电导率异常带,地震学报,9(3),282~288。
付昱华、付安捷,2004,改进的R/S方法与中国火灾数据的分析预测,中国工程科学,6(5),39~44。
李强、徐桂明,2002,江苏及邻区地震频次的Hurst指数分析,西北地震学报,24(3),247~250。
赵明、曾小苹、林云芳,1997,对1989年3月13日磁暴的非线性分析,地震地磁观测与研究,18(3),56~50。
施红俊、马玉林、陈伟忠,2004,中国股市长记忆性实证研究,同济大学学报,32(3),416~420。
王碧泉、黄汉明、范洪顺等,1995,非线性R/S方法研究及其在地震预测中的应用,地震学报,17(4),528-532。
王卫东,2002a,泾阳4.8级地震的构造背景,西北地震学报,24(2),145~149。
王卫东,2002b,泾阳MS4.8级地震的发震构造与破裂特征,地震学报,24(5),552~555。
吴富春、段锋、柯昌安等,2000,1998年泾阳4.8级地震的一些特征,西北地震学报,22(1),53~57。
杨涛、刘庆生、付媛媛等,2005,泾阳MS4.8级地震磁效应高阶统计量方法研究,地震,25(1),97~102。
袁学城,1996,中国地球物理图集,北京:地质出版社,94~106。
张继红,1997,分数维在地磁方法中的应用,地震研究,20(4),398~401。
庄新田、庄新路、田莹,2003,Hurst指数及股市的分形结构,东北大学学报(自然科学版),24(9),862~865
Feder J.,1988,Fractals,New York:Plenum Press,283.
Jacobsen B.,1996,Long term dependence in stock returns,Journal of Empirical Finance,3(4),393~417.
Kikuchi R.,Tsutsumi A.,2001,Characterization of nonlinear dynamics in a circulating fluidized bed by rescaled range analysis andshort-term predictability analysis,Chemical Engineering Science,56(23),6545~6552.
Matos J.M.O.,Moura E.P.,Krüger S.E.et al.,2004,Rescaled range analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis study of cast ironsultrasonic backscattered signals,Chaos,Solitons and Fractals,19(1),55~60.
Mueller R.J.,Johnston M.J.S.,1998,Review of magnetic field monitoring near active faults and volcanic calderas in California:1974-1995,Phys.Earth Planet.Int.,105,131~144.
Stacey F.D.,1963,Seismomagnetic effect and the possibility of forecasting earthquakes,Nature,200,1083~1085.
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