地震灾害风险要素及汶川震后次生灾害防治与管理的探讨
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摘要
为系统、全面的认识地震灾害及其影响,从灾害系统论和风险角度出发,将地震灾害风险分为可能性要素和后果性要素,并指出防震减灾的关键在于控制其后果性要素。由于地震有突发性、强破坏性等特点,更易引发诸多次生灾害,致使最终损失可能超过地震直接造成的破坏,因此结合汶川地震实例,进一步探讨了次生灾害的防治与管理工作。
In order to recognize earthquake disaster and its influence systemically,the risk of earthquake disaster is divided into the possibility factor and the consequence factor in this paper in the light of the system theory of natural disaster and the risk definition.It is pointed out that the key of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction is to control consequence factors.Because earthquake is of characteristics of suddenness and destructiveness and always cause secondary disasters,of which the loss may be more than the direct loss of an earthquake,taking the Wenchuan earthquake as an example,the prevention and management of secondary disasters are discussed.
In order to recognize earthquake disaster and its influence systemically,the risk of earthquake disaster is divided into the possibility factor and the consequence factor in this paper in the light of the system theory of natural disaster and the risk definition.It is pointed out that the key of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction is to control consequence factors.Because earthquake is of characteristics of suddenness and destructiveness and always cause secondary disasters,of which the loss may be more than the direct loss of an earthquake,taking the Wenchuan earthquake as an example,the prevention and management of secondary disasters are discussed.
引文
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[5]丹尼斯.S米勒蒂.人为的灾害[M].武汉:湖北人民出版社,2004:1-2.
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[10]李贞,周栩.地震次生灾害区划初探[J].山西建筑,2005,31(24):61-62.
[11]熊明.防洪安全设计的风险研究现状与发展[J].水资源研究,1996,17(2):35-39.
[12]任治俊.风险元理论及其构建[J].成都行政学院院报,2006,14(3):16-18.
[13]Kaplan S,Garrick B.J.On the quantitative definition of risk[J].Risk Analysis,1981,1(1):11-27.
[14]苏桂武,高庆华.自然灾害风险的行为主体特征与时间尺度问题[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):9-16.
[15]全佺,王玲珍,黄成敏.基于信息扩散理论的云南省地震风险评估及管理研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(2):180-183.
[16]王跃杰,丁志平.地震次生灾害预测和评价的研究[J].山西地震,2002,(3):33-37.
[17]张根深,刘允清.河北省北部地震次生灾害预测[J].华北地震科学,1999,17(4):39-45.
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