天然气管道地震风险综合评估基本思路与框架
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摘要
天然气管道地震风险综合评估是生命线工程重要的研究内容。基于地震危险性分析和管道工程易损性(脆弱性)等工程研究成果基础上,从社会、经济、资源与环境等多角度建立了天然气管道地震风险综合评估的基本思路和整体框架;指出随着地震工程科学和技术的发展,管道地震风险综合评估研究需要不断提高和完善。
Earthquake risk integrated assessment of natural gas pipeline is a fundamental work of lifeline engineering.Based on the research findings about earthquake hazard and vulnerability of pipeline engineering,this paper establishes the basic thinking and framework for earthquake risk integrated assessment of natural gas pipeline from point of view of society,economics,resources and environment etc.It is pointed out that with development of seismic engineering science and technology,the theory and method of earthquake risk integrated assessment for pipeline need to update and perfect furthermore.
Earthquake risk integrated assessment of natural gas pipeline is a fundamental work of lifeline engineering.Based on the research findings about earthquake hazard and vulnerability of pipeline engineering,this paper establishes the basic thinking and framework for earthquake risk integrated assessment of natural gas pipeline from point of view of society,economics,resources and environment etc.It is pointed out that with development of seismic engineering science and technology,the theory and method of earthquake risk integrated assessment for pipeline need to update and perfect furthermore.
引文
[1]王秀英.地下结构震害类型及机理研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(11):55-59.
[2]许增会,宋宏伟.地震对地下工程影响的研究现状与展望[J].山西建筑,2003,29(7):35-36.
[3]张素灵.地震断层作用对地下输油(气)管道破坏的分析[J].地震地质,2001,23(3):432-438.
[4]R0urke TD 0’.地震灾害对输油管道的影响[J].油气储运,1996,15(2):57-58.
[5]尹力峰.地下管道的震害特征与研究概速[J].高原地震,2004,16(2):27-37.
[6]饶鹏强.地面侧移对埋地输水管道影响及其防御措施[J].福建建设科拄,2005,l:10-13.
[7]林均岐.场地土液化引起的地下管道上浮反应研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(3):120-123.
[8]林均岐.不均匀场地土液化引起的地下管道上浮反应研究[J].地震工程与工程扳动,2004.24(4):143-147.
[9]毛建猛,李鸿晶.跨越断层地下管线震害因素分析[J].国际地震动态,2005,4:27-31.
[10]孙建刚.渭惠渠跨越管道地震动响应分析[J].世界地震工程,2004,20(4):112-119.
[11]景悦.基于灰色理论的穿越管道地震可靠性研究[J].地震T程与工程振动,200l,21(4):88-92.
[12]刘志军.悬垂管道跨越结构地震反应分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(5):123-126
[13]郭恩栋,余世舟,李桂荣,朱敏.基于GIS的地下管网地震分析系统[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(4):133-136.
[14]郭恩栋,刘如山,孙柏涛.地下管线工程地震破坏等级划分标准[J].自然灾害学,2007,16(4):86-90.
[15]赵振东,钟江荣,余世舟.能源供应系统地震次生火爆灾害危险性评估.自然灾害学报,2005,14(3):89-94.
[16]黄强兵.埋地管道在地震波作用下的地震性能分析[J].工程勘察.2004,3:64-67.
[17]刘全林.杨敏.埋地管道与土地相互作用分析模型及其参数确定[J].岩土力学,2004,25(5):728-731.
[18]裴宗厂.埋地管道震害方法简述[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(2):186-190.
[19]马玉宏,等.地震灾害风险分析及管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[20]黄崇福.综合风险评估的一个基本模式[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(3):371-380.
[21]Muhlbauer W K.Pipeline risk management manual(third edition)[M].Texas,USA:Gulf Publishing Company,2004.
[22]International Bank for reconstruction and development/The World Bank and Columbia University.Natural disaster hotspots:a global risk analysis[R].2005.
[23]Kunreuther H.Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis:Past,Present,and Future Economic Systems Research[J]2008:115-124.
[24]Sohn J,Hewings G J D,Kim TJ.Analysis of economic impacts of earthquake on transportation network[M]//Okuyama Y,Chang S E.ModelingSpatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters NewYork:Springer,2004:233?256.
[25]Rose A,Liao S Y.Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters:a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions[J].Journal of Regional Science,2005,45:75?112.
[26]Rose A,Benavides J,Chang S E,et al.The regional economic impact of an earthquake:direct and indirect effects of electricity lifeline disrup-tions[J].Journal of Regional Science,1997,37:437?458.
[27]Frank A Ward,Diana Beal.Valuing Nature with Travel Cost Models[M].Edward Elgar,2000
[28]Nancy E Bockstael,Kenneth E McConnell.Environmental and resource valuation with revealed preferences[M].Published by Springer,2007.
[29]Barbara J Kanninen.Valuing environmental amenities using stated choice studies[J].published by springer,2007.
[30]Selcuk Toprak,Filiz Taskin.Estimation of Earthquake Damage to Buried Pipelines Caused by Ground Shaking[J].Natural Hazardsk,2007,40:1-24.
[31]赵忠刚,等.油气管道可接受风险标准值的界定研究[J].西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2008,30(2):147-150.
[32]李宏男,柳春光.生命线工程系统减灾研究趋势与展望.大连理工大学学报[J].2005,45(6):156-161.
[33]张素灵,李亦纲,曲国胜,王春华.生命线地震工程的发展与前瞻[J].世界地震工程,2001,17(2):79-85.
[34]史培军,黄崇福,叶涛.建立中国综合风险管理体系[J].中国减灾,2005(1):35-37.
[35]胡聿贤.地震危险性分析的综合概率法[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
[36]Kas m Armag an Korkmaz Earthquake disaster risk assessment and evaluation for TurkeyEnviron[J].Geol,2008,57:307?320.
[37]Rose A,Shu-Yi Liao.Modeling Regional Economic Resiliency to Earthquakes:A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Lifeline Disrup-tions[M].New York:Springer,2002:3009-3019.
[38]Rose A,Guha G S.Computable general equilibrium modeling of electric utility lifeline losses from earthquakes[M]//Okuyama Y,Chang S E.Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters New York:Springer,2004:119?141.
[2]许增会,宋宏伟.地震对地下工程影响的研究现状与展望[J].山西建筑,2003,29(7):35-36.
[3]张素灵.地震断层作用对地下输油(气)管道破坏的分析[J].地震地质,2001,23(3):432-438.
[4]R0urke TD 0’.地震灾害对输油管道的影响[J].油气储运,1996,15(2):57-58.
[5]尹力峰.地下管道的震害特征与研究概速[J].高原地震,2004,16(2):27-37.
[6]饶鹏强.地面侧移对埋地输水管道影响及其防御措施[J].福建建设科拄,2005,l:10-13.
[7]林均岐.场地土液化引起的地下管道上浮反应研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(3):120-123.
[8]林均岐.不均匀场地土液化引起的地下管道上浮反应研究[J].地震工程与工程扳动,2004.24(4):143-147.
[9]毛建猛,李鸿晶.跨越断层地下管线震害因素分析[J].国际地震动态,2005,4:27-31.
[10]孙建刚.渭惠渠跨越管道地震动响应分析[J].世界地震工程,2004,20(4):112-119.
[11]景悦.基于灰色理论的穿越管道地震可靠性研究[J].地震T程与工程振动,200l,21(4):88-92.
[12]刘志军.悬垂管道跨越结构地震反应分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(5):123-126
[13]郭恩栋,余世舟,李桂荣,朱敏.基于GIS的地下管网地震分析系统[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(4):133-136.
[14]郭恩栋,刘如山,孙柏涛.地下管线工程地震破坏等级划分标准[J].自然灾害学,2007,16(4):86-90.
[15]赵振东,钟江荣,余世舟.能源供应系统地震次生火爆灾害危险性评估.自然灾害学报,2005,14(3):89-94.
[16]黄强兵.埋地管道在地震波作用下的地震性能分析[J].工程勘察.2004,3:64-67.
[17]刘全林.杨敏.埋地管道与土地相互作用分析模型及其参数确定[J].岩土力学,2004,25(5):728-731.
[18]裴宗厂.埋地管道震害方法简述[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(2):186-190.
[19]马玉宏,等.地震灾害风险分析及管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[20]黄崇福.综合风险评估的一个基本模式[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(3):371-380.
[21]Muhlbauer W K.Pipeline risk management manual(third edition)[M].Texas,USA:Gulf Publishing Company,2004.
[22]International Bank for reconstruction and development/The World Bank and Columbia University.Natural disaster hotspots:a global risk analysis[R].2005.
[23]Kunreuther H.Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis:Past,Present,and Future Economic Systems Research[J]2008:115-124.
[24]Sohn J,Hewings G J D,Kim TJ.Analysis of economic impacts of earthquake on transportation network[M]//Okuyama Y,Chang S E.ModelingSpatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters NewYork:Springer,2004:233?256.
[25]Rose A,Liao S Y.Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters:a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions[J].Journal of Regional Science,2005,45:75?112.
[26]Rose A,Benavides J,Chang S E,et al.The regional economic impact of an earthquake:direct and indirect effects of electricity lifeline disrup-tions[J].Journal of Regional Science,1997,37:437?458.
[27]Frank A Ward,Diana Beal.Valuing Nature with Travel Cost Models[M].Edward Elgar,2000
[28]Nancy E Bockstael,Kenneth E McConnell.Environmental and resource valuation with revealed preferences[M].Published by Springer,2007.
[29]Barbara J Kanninen.Valuing environmental amenities using stated choice studies[J].published by springer,2007.
[30]Selcuk Toprak,Filiz Taskin.Estimation of Earthquake Damage to Buried Pipelines Caused by Ground Shaking[J].Natural Hazardsk,2007,40:1-24.
[31]赵忠刚,等.油气管道可接受风险标准值的界定研究[J].西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2008,30(2):147-150.
[32]李宏男,柳春光.生命线工程系统减灾研究趋势与展望.大连理工大学学报[J].2005,45(6):156-161.
[33]张素灵,李亦纲,曲国胜,王春华.生命线地震工程的发展与前瞻[J].世界地震工程,2001,17(2):79-85.
[34]史培军,黄崇福,叶涛.建立中国综合风险管理体系[J].中国减灾,2005(1):35-37.
[35]胡聿贤.地震危险性分析的综合概率法[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
[36]Kas m Armag an Korkmaz Earthquake disaster risk assessment and evaluation for TurkeyEnviron[J].Geol,2008,57:307?320.
[37]Rose A,Shu-Yi Liao.Modeling Regional Economic Resiliency to Earthquakes:A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Lifeline Disrup-tions[M].New York:Springer,2002:3009-3019.
[38]Rose A,Guha G S.Computable general equilibrium modeling of electric utility lifeline losses from earthquakes[M]//Okuyama Y,Chang S E.Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters New York:Springer,2004:119?141.
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