基于LHS-MC方法的矮塔斜拉桥地震风险概率分析
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摘要
提出一种既能避免繁琐积分,又能综合考虑结构材料和地震波动随机性问题以及地震危险性的地震风险概率计算方法。基于结构材料参数的概率分布,采用拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)方法考虑结构构件材料参数的随机性,并结合选取的地震波,形成地震动-桥梁组合样本集。针对典型矮塔斜拉桥结构体系建立非线性有限元纤维模型,确定各主要构件的损伤指标,与增量动力分析方法相结合进行了地震易损性分析,选取合适的分布函数,拟合加速度峰值-结构损伤概率曲线。采用蒙特卡罗(MC)抽样方法离散地震危险性概率模型,避免了繁琐的积分,针对典型矮塔斜拉桥的地震风险概率进行了评估。
A method is proposed to calculate seismic probabilistic risk considering the randomness of the material and the seismic wave,and the seismic hazard.It avoids the cumbersome integration simultaneously.Based on the probability distribution of the structural material parameters,a method of Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is adopted to consider the randomness of the material parameters of the structural members.A sample set of ground motion-bridge combination is formed according to the selected seismic waves.A nonlinear finite element fiber model for the typical short-tower cable-stayed structural system is established.The damage index of the key components is identified.The seismic fragility analysis of lower-tower cable-stayed bridge is carried out with incremental dynamic analysis(IDA),and the PGA-structural damage probability function is fitted.Monte Carlo sampling methods is used for discretion of seismic hazard probability functions,which avoids the cumbersome integration.The seismic probabilistic risk assessment is made for a typical lower-tower cable-stayed bridge.
A method is proposed to calculate seismic probabilistic risk considering the randomness of the material and the seismic wave,and the seismic hazard.It avoids the cumbersome integration simultaneously.Based on the probability distribution of the structural material parameters,a method of Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is adopted to consider the randomness of the material parameters of the structural members.A sample set of ground motion-bridge combination is formed according to the selected seismic waves.A nonlinear finite element fiber model for the typical short-tower cable-stayed structural system is established.The damage index of the key components is identified.The seismic fragility analysis of lower-tower cable-stayed bridge is carried out with incremental dynamic analysis(IDA),and the PGA-structural damage probability function is fitted.Monte Carlo sampling methods is used for discretion of seismic hazard probability functions,which avoids the cumbersome integration.The seismic probabilistic risk assessment is made for a typical lower-tower cable-stayed bridge.
引文
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[20]刘贞荣.关于地震烈度与地震加速度峰值的模糊关系的研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,1982,2(3):29―42.Liu Zhenrong.Computational invstigation on fuzzyrelation between earthquake intensity and peakacceleration of ground motion[J].EarthquakeEngineering and Engineering Vibration,1982,2(3):29―42.(in Chinese)
[21]Menegotto M,Pinto P E.Method of analysis forcyclically loaded reinforced concrete plane framesincluding changes in geometry and non-elastic behaviorof elements under combined normal force and bending[C]//Proceedings of the IABSE Symposium onResistance and Ultimate Deformability of Structures,Lisbon,1973:15―22.
[22]郑文婷.矮塔斜拉桥结构地震风险概率评估[D].福州:福州大学,2011.Zheng Wenting.Seismic probabilistic risk assessment oflower-tower Cable-stayed bridge[D].Fuzhou:FuzhouUniversity,2011.(in Chinese)
[23]Hwang H,Liu J,Chiu Y.Seismic fragility analysis ofhighway bridges[R].Center for Earthquake Research andInformation,the University of Memphis,Memphis(TN),2001.
[24]阮欣.桥梁工程风险评估体系及关键问题研究[D].上海:同济大学,2006.Ruan Xin.Study on bridge engineering risk assessmentsystem and the key issues[D].Shanghai:TongjiUniversity,2006.(in Chinese)
[2]Alexius V.Lessons from incidents and failures of damconstructions:Safety,risk and reliability—trends inengineering[R].Malta:IABSE,2001:735-740.
[3]Howard H M.Hwang.Seismic probabilistic riskassessment and seismic margins studies for nuclear powerplants[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,1988,3(4):170―178.
[4]Lupoil A,Franchin P,Schotanus M.Seismic riskevaluation of RC bridge structures[J].Journal ofEarthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,2003,32:1275―1290.
[5]Malla S.Safety and reliability of the cable-system ofcable-stayed bridges under stochastic earthquake loading[D].Bangkok(Thailand):Asian Institute of Technology,1988.
[6]Khan R A,Datta T K,Ahmad S.Seismic risk analysis ofmodified fan type cable stayed bridges[J].EngineeringStructures,2006,28(9):1275―1285.
[7]Mander J B,Dhakal R P,Mashiko N,Solberg K M.Incremental dynamic analysis applied to seismic financialrisk assessment of bridges[J].Engineering Structures,2007,29(10):2662―2672.
[8]陶履彬,李永盛,冯紫良,等.工程风险分析理论与实践:上海崇明越江通道工程风险分析[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2006.Tao Lubin,Li Yongsheng,Feng Ziliang,et al.Project riskanalysis theory and practice:Shanghai Chongmingcross-river channel engineering[M].Shanghai:TongjiUniversity Press,2006.(in Chinese)
[9]乔美丽,杜进生,王开健.大跨连续刚构桥施工期间地震风险分析[J].公路交通科技,2010,27(11):78―82.Qiao Meili,Du Jinsheng,Wang Kaijian.Analysis ofseismic risk for long-span continuous rigid-frame bridgesduring construction[J].Journal of Highway andTransportation Research and Development,2010,27(11):78―82.(in Chinese)
[10]吕大刚,于晓辉,潘峰,等.基于改进云图法的结构概率地震需求分析[J].世界地震工程,2010,26(1):7―15.LuDagang,Yu Xiaohui,Pan Feng,et al.Probabilisticseismic demand analysis of structures based on animproved cloud method[J].World EarthquakeEngineering,2010,26(1):7―15.(in Chinese)
[11]吕大刚,于晓辉,王光远.基于FORM有限元可靠度方法的结构整体概率抗震能力分析[J].工程力学,2012,29(2):1―8.Lu Dagang,Yu Xiaohui,Wang Guangyuan.Globalprobabilistic seismic capacity analysis of structures basedon form finite element reliability method[J].EngineeringMechanics,2012,29(2):1―8.(in Chinese)
[12]沈怀至,金峰,张楚汉.基于性能的重力坝-地基系统地震易损性分析[J].工程力学,2008,25(12):86―92.Shen Huaizhi,Jin Feng,Zhang Chuhan.Erformance-basedeismic fragility analysis of concrete gravity-foundation system[J].Engineering Mechanics,2008,25(12):86―92.(in Chinese)
[13]吴巧云,朱宏平,樊剑.基于性能的钢筋混凝土框架结构地震易损性分析[J].工程力学,2012,29(9):117―125.Wu Qiaoyun,Zhu Hongping,Fan Jian.Performance-based seismic fragility analysis of RC[J].EngineeringMechanics,2012,29(9):117―125.(in Chinese)
[14]黄明刚.钢筋混凝土连续梁桥的地震易损性、危险性及风险分析[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2009.Huang Mingang.Seismic vulnerability,risk and riskanalysis for Reinforced concrete continuous beam bridge[D].Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2009.(inChinese)
[15]冯清海.特大桥梁地震易损性与风险概率分析[D].上海:同济大学,2008.Feng Qinghai.Seismic vulnerability and risk probabilityanalysis for large bridge[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,2008.(in Chinese)
[16]Mackie K,Stojadinovic B.Seismic demands forperformance-based design of bridges[D].PacificEarthquake Engineering Research Center,University ofCalifornia,Berkeley,2003.
[17]Hoshino N,Takemura A.On reduction of finite samplevariance by extended Latin hypercube sample[J].Bernoulli,2000,6(6):1035―1050.
[18]高小旺,鲍霭斌.地震作用的概率模型及其统计参数[J].地震工程与工程振动,1985,5(1):13―22.Gao Xiaowang,Bao Aibin.Probabilistic model and itsstatistical parameters for seismic load[J].EarthquakeEngineering and Engineering Vibration,1985,5(1):13―22.(in Chinese)
[19]刘恢先,卢荣俭,陈达生,等.修订我旧地震烈度表的一个建议方案[R].中国科学院工程力学研究所地震工程研究报告集(第4集).北京:科学出版社,1981:1―13.Liu Huixian,Lu Rongjian,Chen Dasheng,et al.Aproposal of the amendments to the old seismic intensityscale[J].Earthquake Engineering Research Report ofChinese Academy of Sciences,Institute of EngineeringMechanics(4th)[R].Beijing:Science Press,1981:1―13.(in Chinese)
[20]刘贞荣.关于地震烈度与地震加速度峰值的模糊关系的研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,1982,2(3):29―42.Liu Zhenrong.Computational invstigation on fuzzyrelation between earthquake intensity and peakacceleration of ground motion[J].EarthquakeEngineering and Engineering Vibration,1982,2(3):29―42.(in Chinese)
[21]Menegotto M,Pinto P E.Method of analysis forcyclically loaded reinforced concrete plane framesincluding changes in geometry and non-elastic behaviorof elements under combined normal force and bending[C]//Proceedings of the IABSE Symposium onResistance and Ultimate Deformability of Structures,Lisbon,1973:15―22.
[22]郑文婷.矮塔斜拉桥结构地震风险概率评估[D].福州:福州大学,2011.Zheng Wenting.Seismic probabilistic risk assessment oflower-tower Cable-stayed bridge[D].Fuzhou:FuzhouUniversity,2011.(in Chinese)
[23]Hwang H,Liu J,Chiu Y.Seismic fragility analysis ofhighway bridges[R].Center for Earthquake Research andInformation,the University of Memphis,Memphis(TN),2001.
[24]阮欣.桥梁工程风险评估体系及关键问题研究[D].上海:同济大学,2006.Ruan Xin.Study on bridge engineering risk assessmentsystem and the key issues[D].Shanghai:TongjiUniversity,2006.(in Chinese)
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