基于GIS栅格数据的青海省羊智沟洪水动态模拟
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摘要
采用德国Gemo公司研发的Floodarea水文动力模型,基于气象和灾情资料,模拟强降水导致的山洪情景下逐小时淹没预警点的动态结果,通过淹没深度与累积雨量的拟合,有效的划分了羊智沟山洪灾害不同淹没深度下的临界雨量阈值。结果表明:1)羊智沟流域降水量呈略递减趋势,变化率为-0.02mm/年,年平均气温呈现上升趋势,变化率约为0.032℃/年。2)逐小时淹没深度与6h累积面雨量拟合关系较好,通过0.001的显著性水平检验。3)通过淹没深度和累计雨量的有效拟合,划分了羊智沟洪水临界雨量阈值,为羊智沟洪水灾害预警提供科学依据。
As global warming,more extreme events occurs than before,once it occurs,and it causes serious influence,so it become more and more important to research meteorology disaster,it not only can help us know disaster,conduct disaster forecast and loss assessment,but also it benefit for solving problems for government.Using a hydrological model named floodarea with a module for simulation.Based on land-use,runoff coefficient value,roughness value of Yangzhi ditch,the paper researched the results of simulated data of runoff depth and cumulative precipitation.It revealed the relation and calculate critical rainfalls triggering mudflow in different water-level using floodarea model.The results showed that:1)The trend of precipitation and temperature is-0.02,0.032 ℃/a in 5year moving average,respectively.2)The relationship of data-fitting depth and accumulative precipitation in six hours is better than other period of time in Yangzhi ditch.3)Based on fitting results,the paper put forward the risk precipitation in different grades at the warning spots.
As global warming,more extreme events occurs than before,once it occurs,and it causes serious influence,so it become more and more important to research meteorology disaster,it not only can help us know disaster,conduct disaster forecast and loss assessment,but also it benefit for solving problems for government.Using a hydrological model named floodarea with a module for simulation.Based on land-use,runoff coefficient value,roughness value of Yangzhi ditch,the paper researched the results of simulated data of runoff depth and cumulative precipitation.It revealed the relation and calculate critical rainfalls triggering mudflow in different water-level using floodarea model.The results showed that:1)The trend of precipitation and temperature is-0.02,0.032 ℃/a in 5year moving average,respectively.2)The relationship of data-fitting depth and accumulative precipitation in six hours is better than other period of time in Yangzhi ditch.3)Based on fitting results,the paper put forward the risk precipitation in different grades at the warning spots.
引文
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[19]郑度,姚檀栋.青藏高原隆升及其环境效应[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(5):451-458
[20]陈少勇,任燕,乔立,等.中国西北地区大雨以上降水日数的时空分布特征[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):958-965
[21]潘保田,李吉均.青藏高原:全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器(Ⅲ·青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响)[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,l996,32(1):l08-115
[22]李昌志,郭良.山洪临界雨量述评[J].中国防汛抗旱理论研讨,2013,23(6):23-28
[2]Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al.Climate change 2007:The physical Science Basis:Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[C]//IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.Cambridge:Cambridge University press,2007
[3]文明章,林昕,游立军,等.山洪灾害风险雨量评估方法研究[J].气象,2013,39(10):1325-1330
[4]史培军.中国自然灾害、减灾建设与可持续发展[J].自然资源学报,1995,10(3):267-278
[5]李兰,周月华,叶丽梅,等.一种依据旱涝灾情资料确定分区暴雨洪涝临界雨量的方法[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(3):280-283
[6]赵彦增,张建新,章树安,等.HBV模型在淮河官寨流域的应用研究[J].水文,2007,27(2):57-59
[7]王继竹,郭英莲.湖北省中小流域山洪临界面雨量计算方法及应用[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(17):7535-7537
[8]张建新,赵孟芹,章树安,等.HBV模型在东北多冰雪地区的应用研究[J].水文,2007,27(4):31-33
[9]刘义花.青海省春小麦干旱灾害风险评估与区划[J].冰川动土,2012,34(6):1416-1423
[10]王志,赵琳娜,张国平,等.汶川地震灾区堰塞湖流域面雨量计算方法研究[J].气象,2010,36(6):7-12
[11]祁元,刘勇,杨正华,等.基于GIS兰州滑波与泥石流灾害危险性分析[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(1):96-104
[12]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007:444-452
[13]章国材.气象灾害风险评估与区划方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2009,11
[14]李燕萍.玉树巴塘河初步水文分析与计算[J].青海科技,2010(4):47-50
[15]刘中培,迟宝明,戴长雷,等.长春市城市供水风险分析及对策研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(6):259-261
[16]李风欢,罗潋葱,翟海涛,等.SWAT对大沙河水库流域径流模拟研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(2):87-93
[17]何思为,黄卓铜,王书功,等.四个概念水文模型在黑河流域上游的应用与对比分析[J].水文,2012,32(3):13-19
[18]段生荣.典型小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析应用研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2008(8):63-68
[19]郑度,姚檀栋.青藏高原隆升及其环境效应[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(5):451-458
[20]陈少勇,任燕,乔立,等.中国西北地区大雨以上降水日数的时空分布特征[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):958-965
[21]潘保田,李吉均.青藏高原:全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器(Ⅲ·青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响)[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,l996,32(1):l08-115
[22]李昌志,郭良.山洪临界雨量述评[J].中国防汛抗旱理论研讨,2013,23(6):23-28
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