基于蒙特卡罗法的城市燃气管网抗震连通可靠性分析
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
在对燃气管道进行地震反应判别的基础上,计算管道的抗震可靠度,并结合图论将城市燃气管网简化为源点、汇点和边线,建立管网简化模型。采用蒙特卡罗法对某六节点网络模型进行抗震连通可靠性分析,结果表明:随着迭代次数的增加,近似解以更小的误差接近精确解的概率更大;迭代次数取为5 000时,能够较好地满足精度要求。通过对连通性矩阵进行分析,探讨了设定源点提高目标汇点连通可靠度的可行性。最后,以保定市区的大型燃气管网为例,计算了Ⅶ~Ⅸ度地震烈度下管网的连通可靠度,对比了设定源点对汇点连通可靠度的影响,为该市燃气管网的震害预测和抗震优化提供参考。
Based on discriminating the seismic response of gas pipeline,we calculated the anti-seismic reliability of the pipe,and combined with graph theory,we simplified the city gas pipeline network as the source point,sink point and sideline to establish the simplified model of pipeline network. Then we analyzed the anti-seismic connectivity reliability of a certain six-node network model by M onte Carlo method. The results showed that with the increasing of iterations number,the probability of the approximate solution close to the exact solution with a smaller error is greater. Setting the number of iterations as 5 000 could better meet the precision requirement.Based on the analysis of the connectivity matrix,we discussed the feasibility of improving the connectivity reliability of the target sink point by using the setting source point. At last,taking the large-scale gas pipeline network in downtown Baoding as an example,we calculated the connectivity reliability of pipeline network under earthquake intensities from Ⅶ to Ⅸ degree,and compared the impact of the setting source point on the connectivity reliability of all the sink nodes,which could provide references for the seismic damage prediction and antiseismic optimization of gas pipeline network in the study city.
引文
郭恩栋,冯启民,王亚东.1996.城市供水系统抗震可靠性分析及对策研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,16(3):104-113.
    刘威,李杰.2002.生命线网络可靠度分析的改进最小路递推分解算法[J].地震工程与工程震动,29(5):66-72.
    梅启智,廖炯生,孙惠中.1992.系统可靠性工程基础[M].北京:科学出版社.
    汤爱平,欧进萍.2002.城镇埋地管网震害特征与破坏机理[J].地震工程与工程震动,22(4):120-126.
    吴新瞻,吴新垣.1990.随机模型与计算机模拟[M].北京:电子工业出版社.
    徐钟济.1985.蒙特卡罗方法[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社.
    周伟国,张中秀,孔令令.2009.城市燃气管网的震害分析及减灾对策[J].土木建筑与环境工程,31(4):70-75.
    E·米涅卡.1984.网络和图的最优化算法[M].北京:中国铁道出版社.
    Li J.,He J..2002.A Recursive Decomposition Algorithm for NetworkSeismic Reliability Evaluation[J].Earthquake Engineering&Structural Dynamics,31(8):1525-1539.
    Michael K.L.,Ronald W.P..1996.Identifying and Managing ConjoinThreats:Earthquake-induced Hazardous Materials Releases in the US[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,50(1):31-46.

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心