2004年印尼苏门答腊M_W9.0地震前地震活动增强现象及其与地球自转的关系
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摘要
选取2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊MW9.0地震的余震分布空间范围为研究区域,该区域位于缅甸小板块中部,纬度范围为2°N～15°N.根据USGS地震目录,研究了2004年印尼苏门答腊MW9.0地震前地震频次的时空变化,并分析了地震活动与地球自转的关系.结果显示:1)在余震区域范围内,地震频次自2000年开始出现了明显的上升趋势变化,反映了地震活动的增强过程,临近地震发生前,地震频次有一定幅度的回落;2)通过地震频次空间扫描,发现震前在震中附近区域地震活动增强显著;3)在1990～2004年的15年中,单位时间内发生的地震数在地球自转季节性变化减速时段与加速时段之比值rda在震前出现明显的上升过程:1998年～2002年rda缓慢上升,2002年底rda快速上升达最高值,之后,rda呈现下降趋势,直至苏门答腊MW9.0地震发生;4)2000年1月～2004年11月间,在纬度1°N～7°N的空间范围内的震中附近地区,5.5级以上地震都发生在地球自转季节性变化减速时段内;5)地震活动累积年频次相对于其长期平均值的变化量ΔN与地球自转"十年起伏"变化关系表现为地球自转减速时ΔN上升,地震活动增强,加速时ΔN下降,地震活动减弱.这些现象并非偶然,可能预示着地球自转减速与苏门答腊MW9.0地震之间存在着某种联系,这些结果对地震孕育过程的认识和地震预测研究具有一定的价值.
The region where the aftershocks of the December 26,2004 Indonesia Sumatra earthquake of MW9.0 are distributed is selected for research in this spaper.It is located in the central part of the Myanmar plate,with a latitude range from 2°N to 15°N.The data of the earthquake catalogue pubulished by the United States Geological Survey is used to study the temporal and spatial variations of the earthquake frequency before the 2004 MW9.0 Indonesia Sumatra earthquake,and to analyze the relationship between the seismicity and the earth rotation.The results are as follows: 1) A very clear gradually increasing variation of the earthquake frequency within the region of aftershocks began from 2000,reflecting the enhanceing process of the seismicity.The earthquake frequency decreased to a certain extent prior to the imminency of the main shock.2) Through the spacial mapping analyse of the earthquake frequency,it is found that a significant increasing region of seismic activity was located near the epicenter before the main shock.3) The rda value,defined as the ratio of earthquake number cuurring in a unit time in the deceleration period of the earth rotation to that in the acceleration period of the earth rotation,increased significantly before the MW9.0 earthquake.It increased slowly from 1998 to 2002,and reached to the maximum at the end of 2002,and then decreased until the occurrence of the main shock.4) The M≥5.5 earthquakes occurring in the region with latitude range from 1°N to 7°N near the epicenter almost all happened in the deceleration period of the seasonal change of the earth rotation.5) When it is in the deceleration period of the seasonal change of the earth rotation,ΔN,defined as the deference between the cumulative annual frequency of seismic activity and its mean,increases,which shows that the seismic activity enhanced.When it is in the acceleration period,ΔN decreases,and the seismic activity becomes weak.This phenomenon is not accidental,maybe reveals the relation of the MW9.0 Indonesia Sumatra earthquake to the deceleration of the earth rotation.These results are valuable to us for further understanding the process of earthquake pregnancy and researching earthquake prediction.
The region where the aftershocks of the December 26,2004 Indonesia Sumatra earthquake of MW9.0 are distributed is selected for research in this spaper.It is located in the central part of the Myanmar plate,with a latitude range from 2°N to 15°N.The data of the earthquake catalogue pubulished by the United States Geological Survey is used to study the temporal and spatial variations of the earthquake frequency before the 2004 MW9.0 Indonesia Sumatra earthquake,and to analyze the relationship between the seismicity and the earth rotation.The results are as follows: 1) A very clear gradually increasing variation of the earthquake frequency within the region of aftershocks began from 2000,reflecting the enhanceing process of the seismicity.The earthquake frequency decreased to a certain extent prior to the imminency of the main shock.2) Through the spacial mapping analyse of the earthquake frequency,it is found that a significant increasing region of seismic activity was located near the epicenter before the main shock.3) The rda value,defined as the ratio of earthquake number cuurring in a unit time in the deceleration period of the earth rotation to that in the acceleration period of the earth rotation,increased significantly before the MW9.0 earthquake.It increased slowly from 1998 to 2002,and reached to the maximum at the end of 2002,and then decreased until the occurrence of the main shock.4) The M≥5.5 earthquakes occurring in the region with latitude range from 1°N to 7°N near the epicenter almost all happened in the deceleration period of the seasonal change of the earth rotation.5) When it is in the deceleration period of the seasonal change of the earth rotation,ΔN,defined as the deference between the cumulative annual frequency of seismic activity and its mean,increases,which shows that the seismic activity enhanced.When it is in the acceleration period,ΔN decreases,and the seismic activity becomes weak.This phenomenon is not accidental,maybe reveals the relation of the MW9.0 Indonesia Sumatra earthquake to the deceleration of the earth rotation.These results are valuable to us for further understanding the process of earthquake pregnancy and researching earthquake prediction.
引文
[1]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰等.地震预报引论.北京:科学出版社,2001.Zhang G M,Fu Z X,Gui X T,et al.Introduction toEarthquake Prediction(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,2011.
[2]李四光.地质力学概论.北京:科学出版社,1979.Li S G.Introduction to Geomechanics(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,1979.
[3]马宗晋,陈章立,傅征祥等.亚欧地震系的地震构造特征.中国科学A辑,1980,(9):883-890.Ma Z J,Chen Z L,Fu Z X,et al.Structural characteristicsof earthquakes in Asia-Europe seismic zone.Science inChina,Ser.A(in Chinese),1980,(9):883-890.
[4]杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震学引论.北京:地震出版社,1989.Du P R,Xu D Y.An Introduction to Astroseismology(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1989.
[5]高建国.地球自转角速度变化触发地震的初步讨论.科学通报,1981,26(5):293-296.Gao J G.A preliminary discussion of earthquakes triggeredby the changes of the earth rotation rate.Chinese ScienceBulletin(in Chinese),1981,26(5):293-296.
[6]陈翠仙.20世纪中国8级大地震与日长关系的初析.云南天文台台刊,1992,(4):51-53.Chen C X.Preliminary analyses of the relationship betweenthe changes of LOD and Chinese earthquakes of magnitude8.0in the twentieth century.Publications of YunnanObservatory(in Chinese),1992,(4):51-53.
[7]薄万举,王广余.地球自转、断层形变与地震活动关系研究.大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(2):43-47.Bo W J,Wang G Y.Researches on relations among earthrotation,fault deformation and seismicity.Journal ofGeodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2006,26(2):43-47.
[8]李启斌,肖兴华,李致森.中国大陆强地震与地球自转角速度长期变化关系的初步分析.地球物理学报,1973,16(1):71-80.Li Q B,Xiao X H,Li Z S.A preliminary study on therelation between the great earthquakes of China and thesecular variation of the angular velocity of rotation of theearth.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1973,16(1):71-80.
[9]虞志英,罗时芳,许世远等.地球自转速度季节性变化与地震关系的初步分析.地球物理学报,1974,17(1):44-49.Yu Z Y,Luo S F,Xu S Y,et al.Preliminary analyses of therelationship between earthquakes and seasonal changes in theearth′s rotation.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1974,17(1):44-49.
[10]张愈,张慧雯.地球自转不规则变化与苏皖及其附近地区中强地震的相关性.地震学刊,2000,20(3):51-54.Zhang Y,Zhang H W.Correlation between velocity variationof earth rotation and moderate earthquakes in Jiangsu-Anhuiand adjacent area.Journal of Seismology(in Chinese),2000,20(3):51-54.
[11]韩延本,郭增建,赵娟等.地球自转速率变化与中国西部的大地震.国际地震动态,2003,294(6):1-5.Han Y B,Guo Z J,Zhao J,et al.Variation of the earth′srotation and large earthquakes in the west of China.RecentDevelopments in World Seismology(in Chinese),2003,294(6):1-5.
[12]Stoyko A,Stoyko N.Rotation de la terre,phénomènesgéophysiques et activitédu soleil.Bulletin Academic RoyaleBelique,1969,55:279-285.
[13]安欧.全球大震活动与地球自转速率的关系.华北地震科学,1985,3(1):56-67.An O.Relationship between activity of large earthquakes inthe whole world and rotation speed of the earth.North ChinaEarthquake Sciences(in Chinese),1985,3(1):56-67.
[14]周永宏,郑大伟.地球自转变化与中国大陆地震活动关系的初步分析.中国科学院上海天文台年刊,1994,(15):1-14.Zhou Y H,Zheng D W.A preliminary analysis of therelationship between earth rotation and seismic activity inChina mainland.Annals of Shanghai Observatory AcademiaSinica(in Chinese),1994,(15):1-14.
[15]Zharov V E.Connection of the earth′s rotation with theatmospheric angular momentum and the strongest earthquakes.Astronomical and Astrophysical Transactions,1996,9(4):317-327.
[16]郭恒祖.二十世纪以来中国西部和邻区的大地震活动与地球自转的关系.内陆地震,1991,5(3):267-271.Guo H Z.Study on the large earthquakes activity along thewest of China and the adjacent area in twenty century anddiscussing its correlation with the earth rotation.InlandEarthquake(in Chinese),1991,5(3):267-271.
[17]苏鸾声.全球7级大震与我国地震活动的关系.地震研究,1995,18(2):143-150.Su L S.Relations between global earthquakes with M≥7andseismicity in China.Journal of Seismological Research(inChinese),1995,18(2):143-150.
[18]马利华,韩延本,尹志强.全球强震的分布及其与地球自转速率变化的关系.天文研究与技术(国家天文台台刊),2007,4(4):406-411.Ma L H,Han Y B,Yin Z Q.Distribution characteristics ofglobal significant earthquakes and possible connection betweenearthquakes and earth′s variable rotation rate.AstronomicalResearch and Technology(in Chinese),2007,4(4):406-411.
[19]季洪钦,尤淑如.地球自转不均匀性与全球中震、深震能量的相关分析及其力学关系.天文学报,1988,29(4):326-332.Ji H Q,You S R.Dynamic relation between the irregularrotation of the earth and the energy released from medium anddeep earthquakes.Acta Astronomica Sinica(in Chinese),1988,29(4):326-332.
[20]傅征祥,邵辉成,丁香.中国大陆浅源强震分布与地球自转速率变化的关系.地震,2004,24(3):15-20.Fu Z X,Shao H C,Ding X.Relation between distribution ofshallow strong earthquake in China′s continent and the earthrotation rate variation.Earthquake(in Chinese),2004,24(3):15-20.
[21]马利华,韩延本,尹志强.地球自转速率变化及其与地球物理现象关系研究的进展.地球物理学进展,2004,19(4):968-974.Ma L H,Han Y B,Yin Z Q.Progress on variable earthrotation rate and geophysical phenomena.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2004,19(4):968-974.
[22]王恒信,赵晓燕,李艳娥等.几次强震及震前震中附近地区中小地震与地球自转的关系.地震,2011,31(2):33-41.Wang H X,Zhao X Y,Li Y E,et al.A study on therelationships between earth rotation and the occurrences ofseveral strong earthquakes.Earthquake(in Chinese),2011,31(2):33-41.
[23]郑大伟,周永宏.地球自转变化与全球地震活动关系的研究.地震学报,1995,17(1):25-30.Zheng D W,Zhou Y H.Study on the relationship betweenvelocity variation of earth rotation and global seismicactivities.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1995,17(1):25-30
[24]郑大伟.地球自转与大气、海洋活动.天文学进展,1988,6(4):316-328.Zheng D W.Earth rotation and the activities of ocean andatmosphere.Progress in Astronomy(in Chinese),1988,6(4):316-328.
[25]宋贯一,曹志成,王吉易等.地球自转速度的年变化.地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1225-1228.Song G Y,Cao Z C,Wang J Y,et al.The annual variationof the earth′s rotation speed.Progress in Geophysics(inChinese),2007,22(4):1225-1228.
[26]宋贯一.地球自转速度季节性变化的主要原因解析.地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):450-455.Song G Y.Solutions on seasonal transformation of thevelocity of earth rotation.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2011,26(2):450-455.
[2]李四光.地质力学概论.北京:科学出版社,1979.Li S G.Introduction to Geomechanics(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,1979.
[3]马宗晋,陈章立,傅征祥等.亚欧地震系的地震构造特征.中国科学A辑,1980,(9):883-890.Ma Z J,Chen Z L,Fu Z X,et al.Structural characteristicsof earthquakes in Asia-Europe seismic zone.Science inChina,Ser.A(in Chinese),1980,(9):883-890.
[4]杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震学引论.北京:地震出版社,1989.Du P R,Xu D Y.An Introduction to Astroseismology(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1989.
[5]高建国.地球自转角速度变化触发地震的初步讨论.科学通报,1981,26(5):293-296.Gao J G.A preliminary discussion of earthquakes triggeredby the changes of the earth rotation rate.Chinese ScienceBulletin(in Chinese),1981,26(5):293-296.
[6]陈翠仙.20世纪中国8级大地震与日长关系的初析.云南天文台台刊,1992,(4):51-53.Chen C X.Preliminary analyses of the relationship betweenthe changes of LOD and Chinese earthquakes of magnitude8.0in the twentieth century.Publications of YunnanObservatory(in Chinese),1992,(4):51-53.
[7]薄万举,王广余.地球自转、断层形变与地震活动关系研究.大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(2):43-47.Bo W J,Wang G Y.Researches on relations among earthrotation,fault deformation and seismicity.Journal ofGeodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2006,26(2):43-47.
[8]李启斌,肖兴华,李致森.中国大陆强地震与地球自转角速度长期变化关系的初步分析.地球物理学报,1973,16(1):71-80.Li Q B,Xiao X H,Li Z S.A preliminary study on therelation between the great earthquakes of China and thesecular variation of the angular velocity of rotation of theearth.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1973,16(1):71-80.
[9]虞志英,罗时芳,许世远等.地球自转速度季节性变化与地震关系的初步分析.地球物理学报,1974,17(1):44-49.Yu Z Y,Luo S F,Xu S Y,et al.Preliminary analyses of therelationship between earthquakes and seasonal changes in theearth′s rotation.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1974,17(1):44-49.
[10]张愈,张慧雯.地球自转不规则变化与苏皖及其附近地区中强地震的相关性.地震学刊,2000,20(3):51-54.Zhang Y,Zhang H W.Correlation between velocity variationof earth rotation and moderate earthquakes in Jiangsu-Anhuiand adjacent area.Journal of Seismology(in Chinese),2000,20(3):51-54.
[11]韩延本,郭增建,赵娟等.地球自转速率变化与中国西部的大地震.国际地震动态,2003,294(6):1-5.Han Y B,Guo Z J,Zhao J,et al.Variation of the earth′srotation and large earthquakes in the west of China.RecentDevelopments in World Seismology(in Chinese),2003,294(6):1-5.
[12]Stoyko A,Stoyko N.Rotation de la terre,phénomènesgéophysiques et activitédu soleil.Bulletin Academic RoyaleBelique,1969,55:279-285.
[13]安欧.全球大震活动与地球自转速率的关系.华北地震科学,1985,3(1):56-67.An O.Relationship between activity of large earthquakes inthe whole world and rotation speed of the earth.North ChinaEarthquake Sciences(in Chinese),1985,3(1):56-67.
[14]周永宏,郑大伟.地球自转变化与中国大陆地震活动关系的初步分析.中国科学院上海天文台年刊,1994,(15):1-14.Zhou Y H,Zheng D W.A preliminary analysis of therelationship between earth rotation and seismic activity inChina mainland.Annals of Shanghai Observatory AcademiaSinica(in Chinese),1994,(15):1-14.
[15]Zharov V E.Connection of the earth′s rotation with theatmospheric angular momentum and the strongest earthquakes.Astronomical and Astrophysical Transactions,1996,9(4):317-327.
[16]郭恒祖.二十世纪以来中国西部和邻区的大地震活动与地球自转的关系.内陆地震,1991,5(3):267-271.Guo H Z.Study on the large earthquakes activity along thewest of China and the adjacent area in twenty century anddiscussing its correlation with the earth rotation.InlandEarthquake(in Chinese),1991,5(3):267-271.
[17]苏鸾声.全球7级大震与我国地震活动的关系.地震研究,1995,18(2):143-150.Su L S.Relations between global earthquakes with M≥7andseismicity in China.Journal of Seismological Research(inChinese),1995,18(2):143-150.
[18]马利华,韩延本,尹志强.全球强震的分布及其与地球自转速率变化的关系.天文研究与技术(国家天文台台刊),2007,4(4):406-411.Ma L H,Han Y B,Yin Z Q.Distribution characteristics ofglobal significant earthquakes and possible connection betweenearthquakes and earth′s variable rotation rate.AstronomicalResearch and Technology(in Chinese),2007,4(4):406-411.
[19]季洪钦,尤淑如.地球自转不均匀性与全球中震、深震能量的相关分析及其力学关系.天文学报,1988,29(4):326-332.Ji H Q,You S R.Dynamic relation between the irregularrotation of the earth and the energy released from medium anddeep earthquakes.Acta Astronomica Sinica(in Chinese),1988,29(4):326-332.
[20]傅征祥,邵辉成,丁香.中国大陆浅源强震分布与地球自转速率变化的关系.地震,2004,24(3):15-20.Fu Z X,Shao H C,Ding X.Relation between distribution ofshallow strong earthquake in China′s continent and the earthrotation rate variation.Earthquake(in Chinese),2004,24(3):15-20.
[21]马利华,韩延本,尹志强.地球自转速率变化及其与地球物理现象关系研究的进展.地球物理学进展,2004,19(4):968-974.Ma L H,Han Y B,Yin Z Q.Progress on variable earthrotation rate and geophysical phenomena.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2004,19(4):968-974.
[22]王恒信,赵晓燕,李艳娥等.几次强震及震前震中附近地区中小地震与地球自转的关系.地震,2011,31(2):33-41.Wang H X,Zhao X Y,Li Y E,et al.A study on therelationships between earth rotation and the occurrences ofseveral strong earthquakes.Earthquake(in Chinese),2011,31(2):33-41.
[23]郑大伟,周永宏.地球自转变化与全球地震活动关系的研究.地震学报,1995,17(1):25-30.Zheng D W,Zhou Y H.Study on the relationship betweenvelocity variation of earth rotation and global seismicactivities.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1995,17(1):25-30
[24]郑大伟.地球自转与大气、海洋活动.天文学进展,1988,6(4):316-328.Zheng D W.Earth rotation and the activities of ocean andatmosphere.Progress in Astronomy(in Chinese),1988,6(4):316-328.
[25]宋贯一,曹志成,王吉易等.地球自转速度的年变化.地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1225-1228.Song G Y,Cao Z C,Wang J Y,et al.The annual variationof the earth′s rotation speed.Progress in Geophysics(inChinese),2007,22(4):1225-1228.
[26]宋贯一.地球自转速度季节性变化的主要原因解析.地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):450-455.Song G Y.Solutions on seasonal transformation of thevelocity of earth rotation.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2011,26(2):450-455.
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