东北地区地震活动的Rydelek-Sacks周期性检验和震级-周期谱研究
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摘要
为检验中国东北地区地震活动可能存在的周期性特征和深、浅源地震在周期性活动上的相关性,利用Rydelek-Sacks检验方法和不同的地震目录,考虑了地震震级的选取对周期性特征识别可能存在的影响,并在震级-周期谱中进行了比较研究.对该地区1970—2009年ML≥4.5浅源地震、1920—2009年MS≥5.0浅源地震和1905—2009年MS≥6.0深源地震的周期性检验结果表明:①东北地区深源地震活动存在明显和稳定的周期性活动;②浅源地震的周期性活动可能存在震级相依关系;③深源地震与ML4.5—5.0浅源地震在复发周期上存在较好的相关性,表明中国东北地区深源地震在周期相关性角度对浅源地震的影响可能比传统认识的MS5.0地震震级更小.
For distinguishing the potential periodicity and the relationship between shallow and deep earthquakes in northeastern China,this paper conducted the Rydelek-Sacks test based on various earthquake catalogues to consider the influence of selected magnitudes on the periodicity.The test for the periodicity distinguishing was investigated by using shallow earthquakes from 1970 to 2009 with magnitude no less than ML4.5,1920 to 2009 with magnitude no less than MS5.0 and deep earthquakes from 1905 to 2009 with magnitude no less than MS6.0.Major results of our study are:① Deep earthquakes in northeastern China region have an obvious and stationary active period;② Periodicity of shallow earthquakes probably depends on magnitude;③ Good correlation between deep earthquakes and ML4.5—5.0 shallow ones show that in northeastern China deep earthquakes may influence on the shallow earthquakes with magnitude even lower than MS5.0.This fact is beyond our traditional knowledge.
For distinguishing the potential periodicity and the relationship between shallow and deep earthquakes in northeastern China,this paper conducted the Rydelek-Sacks test based on various earthquake catalogues to consider the influence of selected magnitudes on the periodicity.The test for the periodicity distinguishing was investigated by using shallow earthquakes from 1970 to 2009 with magnitude no less than ML4.5,1920 to 2009 with magnitude no less than MS5.0 and deep earthquakes from 1905 to 2009 with magnitude no less than MS6.0.Major results of our study are:① Deep earthquakes in northeastern China region have an obvious and stationary active period;② Periodicity of shallow earthquakes probably depends on magnitude;③ Good correlation between deep earthquakes and ML4.5—5.0 shallow ones show that in northeastern China deep earthquakes may influence on the shallow earthquakes with magnitude even lower than MS5.0.This fact is beyond our traditional knowledge.
引文
邓起东,张培震,冉勇康,杨晓平,闵伟,陈立春.2003.中国活动构造与地震活动[J].地学前缘,10(S1):66--73.
傅征祥,程燕.1986.中国大陆近代幕式地震活动的某些特征[J].地震,6(2):28--35.
傅征祥,刘杰,王晓青,郝平,吕梅梅.2003.中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J].地学前缘,10(8):112--117.
高立新.2008.中国松辽盆地构造环境及东北地区地震活动特征分析[J].地震,28(4):59--67.
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社:451--471.
蒋长胜,赵祎喆，王行舟．２０１０．亚洲地区Ｂｅｎｉｏｆｆ应变释放和强震活动的周期性特征研究［Ｊ］．地震，３０（３）：７２－－８０．
李志安,闰义.2000.中国东北造山带一盆地系统动力学研究[J].大地构造与成矿学,24(1):31--37.
马宏生,邵志刚,周龙泉,蒋长胜.2008.中国大陆7级地震活动状态分析[J].地震,28(3):8--13.
马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,汪成民,张国民,刘德富.1982.1966～1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社:1-216.
孙文福,张颖,张国生.2007.东北第五地震活跃期结束时间及最大地震强度预测[J].东北地震研究,23(1):16--26.
汪素云,王健,俞言祥,吴清,高阿甲,高孟潭.2010.基于中国地震台网观测报告的ML与MS经验关系[J].中国地震,26(1):14--22.
吴戈,马明志,许东满,蒋秀琴.1994.东北大陆历史地震研究[M].成都:成都地图出版社:30--37.
吴兆营,薄景山,刘志平,邵喜彬,李忠伟.2005.东北地震区b值和地震年平均发生率的统计分析[J].21(3):27--32.
吴忠良.1999.鉴别地震活动周期性和随机性的广义Rydelek-Sacks检验[J].地震学报,21(5):487--494.
杨宝俊,刘财,刘万崧,王喜臣,刘国兴,刘洋,胡艳飞.2006.中国东北地区岩石圈结构的地震学特征与对矿产资源的动力控制作用[J].中国地质,33(4):866--873.
张凤君.2007.东北地震区地震趋势的小波分析[J].地震研究,30(2):137--141.
张国民,耿鲁明,石耀霖.1993.中国大陆强震轮回活动的计算机模型研究[J].中国地震,9(1):20--32.
张国民.1987.我国大陆强震活动的韵律性特征[J].地震地质,9(2):27--37.
张兴洲,杨宝俊,吴福元,刘国兴.2006.中国兴蒙—吉黑地区岩石圈结构基本特征[J].中国地质,33(4):816--823.
赵文峰.1989.东北深源地震和浅源地震同步活动的地球动力机制[J].西北地震学报,11(1):41--47.
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912～1990MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社:453-472.
Bakun W H,Lindh A G.1985.The Parkfield,California,earthquake prediction experiment[J].Science,229(4714):619--624.
Bakun W H,McEvilly T V.1979.Earthquakes near Parkfield,California:Comparing the1934and1966sequences[J].Science,205(4413):1375--1377.
Bakun W H,McEvilly T V.1984.Recurrence models and Parkfield,California,earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,89(B5):3051--3058.
Byrdina S,Shebalin P,Narteau C,Le Moul J L.2006.Temporal properties of seismicity and largest earthquakes in SECarpathians[J].Nonlin Processes Geophys,13(6):629--639.
Centamore C,PatanèG,TuvèT.1999.Maximum entropy estimation of values at Mt Etna:comparison with conventional least squares and maximum likelihood results and correlation with volcanic activity[J].Annali Di Geofisica,42(3):515--528.
Dargahi-Noubary G R.1997.A test of the cyclicity of earthquakes[J].Natural Hazards,16(2--3):127--134.
Gardner J K,Knopoff L.1974.Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California with aftershocks removed Poissonian?[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,64(5):1363--1367.
Kagan Y Y.1997.Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experimen[J].Tectonophysics,270(3--4):207--219.
Mogi K.1974.Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,22(3--4):265--282.
Ogata Y.1988.Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes[J].J Amer StatistAssoc,83(401):9--27.
Ogata Y.1989.Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis[J].Tectonophysics,169(1--3):159--174.
Ogata Y.2001.Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence[J].J GeophysRes,106(B5):8729--8744.
Omori F.1894.On aftershocks of earthquakes[J].J Coll Sci Imp Univ Tokyo,7:11--200.
Romanowicz B.1993.Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy release of great earthquakes[J].Science,260(5116):1923-1926.
Rydelek P A,Sacks I S.1989.Testing the completeness of earthquake catalogues and the hypothesis of self-similarity[J].Nature,337(6204):251--253.
Savage J C.1993.The Parkfield prediction fallacy[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,83(1):1--6.
Wang J,He X S,Li Y Q.2006.Seismic characteristics of strong deep focal earthquakes and sssociated phenomena inNortheastern Asia[C]∥Anil Bhardwaj eds.Advances in Geosciences.World Scientific Publication,Singapore:9:23--39.
Weldon R J,Fumal T E,Biasi G P,Scharer K M.2005.Past and future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault[J].Science,308(5724):966--967.
Wiemier S.2001.A sorfware package to analyze seismicity:ZMAP[J].Seism Res Lett,72(3):373--382.
傅征祥,程燕.1986.中国大陆近代幕式地震活动的某些特征[J].地震,6(2):28--35.
傅征祥,刘杰,王晓青,郝平,吕梅梅.2003.中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J].地学前缘,10(8):112--117.
高立新.2008.中国松辽盆地构造环境及东北地区地震活动特征分析[J].地震,28(4):59--67.
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社:451--471.
蒋长胜,赵祎喆，王行舟．２０１０．亚洲地区Ｂｅｎｉｏｆｆ应变释放和强震活动的周期性特征研究［Ｊ］．地震，３０（３）：７２－－８０．
李志安,闰义.2000.中国东北造山带一盆地系统动力学研究[J].大地构造与成矿学,24(1):31--37.
马宏生,邵志刚,周龙泉,蒋长胜.2008.中国大陆7级地震活动状态分析[J].地震,28(3):8--13.
马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,汪成民,张国民,刘德富.1982.1966～1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社:1-216.
孙文福,张颖,张国生.2007.东北第五地震活跃期结束时间及最大地震强度预测[J].东北地震研究,23(1):16--26.
汪素云,王健,俞言祥,吴清,高阿甲,高孟潭.2010.基于中国地震台网观测报告的ML与MS经验关系[J].中国地震,26(1):14--22.
吴戈,马明志,许东满,蒋秀琴.1994.东北大陆历史地震研究[M].成都:成都地图出版社:30--37.
吴兆营,薄景山,刘志平,邵喜彬,李忠伟.2005.东北地震区b值和地震年平均发生率的统计分析[J].21(3):27--32.
吴忠良.1999.鉴别地震活动周期性和随机性的广义Rydelek-Sacks检验[J].地震学报,21(5):487--494.
杨宝俊,刘财,刘万崧,王喜臣,刘国兴,刘洋,胡艳飞.2006.中国东北地区岩石圈结构的地震学特征与对矿产资源的动力控制作用[J].中国地质,33(4):866--873.
张凤君.2007.东北地震区地震趋势的小波分析[J].地震研究,30(2):137--141.
张国民,耿鲁明,石耀霖.1993.中国大陆强震轮回活动的计算机模型研究[J].中国地震,9(1):20--32.
张国民.1987.我国大陆强震活动的韵律性特征[J].地震地质,9(2):27--37.
张兴洲,杨宝俊,吴福元,刘国兴.2006.中国兴蒙—吉黑地区岩石圈结构基本特征[J].中国地质,33(4):816--823.
赵文峰.1989.东北深源地震和浅源地震同步活动的地球动力机制[J].西北地震学报,11(1):41--47.
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912～1990MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社:453-472.
Bakun W H,Lindh A G.1985.The Parkfield,California,earthquake prediction experiment[J].Science,229(4714):619--624.
Bakun W H,McEvilly T V.1979.Earthquakes near Parkfield,California:Comparing the1934and1966sequences[J].Science,205(4413):1375--1377.
Bakun W H,McEvilly T V.1984.Recurrence models and Parkfield,California,earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,89(B5):3051--3058.
Byrdina S,Shebalin P,Narteau C,Le Moul J L.2006.Temporal properties of seismicity and largest earthquakes in SECarpathians[J].Nonlin Processes Geophys,13(6):629--639.
Centamore C,PatanèG,TuvèT.1999.Maximum entropy estimation of values at Mt Etna:comparison with conventional least squares and maximum likelihood results and correlation with volcanic activity[J].Annali Di Geofisica,42(3):515--528.
Dargahi-Noubary G R.1997.A test of the cyclicity of earthquakes[J].Natural Hazards,16(2--3):127--134.
Gardner J K,Knopoff L.1974.Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California with aftershocks removed Poissonian?[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,64(5):1363--1367.
Kagan Y Y.1997.Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experimen[J].Tectonophysics,270(3--4):207--219.
Mogi K.1974.Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,22(3--4):265--282.
Ogata Y.1988.Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes[J].J Amer StatistAssoc,83(401):9--27.
Ogata Y.1989.Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis[J].Tectonophysics,169(1--3):159--174.
Ogata Y.2001.Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence[J].J GeophysRes,106(B5):8729--8744.
Omori F.1894.On aftershocks of earthquakes[J].J Coll Sci Imp Univ Tokyo,7:11--200.
Romanowicz B.1993.Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy release of great earthquakes[J].Science,260(5116):1923-1926.
Rydelek P A,Sacks I S.1989.Testing the completeness of earthquake catalogues and the hypothesis of self-similarity[J].Nature,337(6204):251--253.
Savage J C.1993.The Parkfield prediction fallacy[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,83(1):1--6.
Wang J,He X S,Li Y Q.2006.Seismic characteristics of strong deep focal earthquakes and sssociated phenomena inNortheastern Asia[C]∥Anil Bhardwaj eds.Advances in Geosciences.World Scientific Publication,Singapore:9:23--39.
Weldon R J,Fumal T E,Biasi G P,Scharer K M.2005.Past and future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault[J].Science,308(5724):966--967.
Wiemier S.2001.A sorfware package to analyze seismicity:ZMAP[J].Seism Res Lett,72(3):373--382.
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