地震监测预报的误区分析与工作建议
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摘要
四川省汶川县巨震之后,人们对地震前兆问题广为讨论,由此引发诸多思考。基于地球系统复杂变化过程中的突变现象,分析了地震前兆信息的基本问题;指出目前社会公众及国际地震学界一般存在以下3个误区,即认为前兆与地震应一一对应,陆区地震预报主要依赖于台网监测,地震前兆分析方法比较单一;进而提出中国地震监测预报工作应重视卫星对地观测数据的快速处理与分析,建立地震数据共享机制和地震信息汇合机构,期望中国地震监测预报理论和技术尽快实现创新发展。
Earthquake precursors are being wildly talked about after Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake,Sichuan,China,and lots of discussions are initiated.Based on the mutation behavior of the complex variation process of Earth system,this paper analyzed some basic issues on earthquake precursors.It is pointed out that among the present social public and international seismological community there exists generally three errors,respectively be that the precursor is considered should be one-to-one with the earthquake,the terrestrial earthquake predication is mainly based on isolated station monitoring,and the analysis method for earthquake precursors is relatively single.Furthermore,two suggestions are presented for earthquake monitoring and predication work in China,i.e.,the rapid processing and analyzing on satellite observation data on earth is very important,and the seismic data share mechanism and a seismic information gathering institution is demanded.It is expected that the theory and technology on earthquake monitoring and predication develop fast with much more innovations in China.
Earthquake precursors are being wildly talked about after Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake,Sichuan,China,and lots of discussions are initiated.Based on the mutation behavior of the complex variation process of Earth system,this paper analyzed some basic issues on earthquake precursors.It is pointed out that among the present social public and international seismological community there exists generally three errors,respectively be that the precursor is considered should be one-to-one with the earthquake,the terrestrial earthquake predication is mainly based on isolated station monitoring,and the analysis method for earthquake precursors is relatively single.Furthermore,two suggestions are presented for earthquake monitoring and predication work in China,i.e.,the rapid processing and analyzing on satellite observation data on earth is very important,and the seismic data share mechanism and a seismic information gathering institution is demanded.It is expected that the theory and technology on earthquake monitoring and predication develop fast with much more innovations in China.
引文
[1]吴立新,刘善军,吴育华,等.遥感岩石力学(I):非连续组合断层破裂的热红外辐射规律及其构造地震前兆意义[J].岩石力学与工程学报.2004,23(1):24-30.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun,Wu Yuhua,et al.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(1):24-30.
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[8]Li Jinping,Wu Lixin,Dong Yanqing,et al.Quantitative analyzing model for tectonic activity based on satellite thermal infrared anomaly[C]//IGARSS2007,Barcelona,Spain,July23-27,2007:3039-3042.
[9]吴立新,刘善军,陈云浩,等.汶川地震前卫星热红外异常与云异常现象[J].科技导报,2008,26(10):32-36.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun,Chen Yunhao,et al.Science & Technology Reviews,2008,26(10):32-36.
[10]吴立新,李德仁.未来对地观测协作与防灾减灾[J].地理与地理信息科学,2006,22(3):1-8.Wu Lixin,Li Deren.Geography and Geo-Information Science,2006,22(3):1-8.
[11]吴立新,刘善军.GEOSS条件下固体地球灾害的广义遥感监测[J].科技导报,2007,25(6):5-11.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun.Science & Technology Reviews,2007,25(6):5-11.
[2]吴立新,刘善军,吴育华,等.遥感岩石力学(II):断层双剪粘滑的热红外辐射规律及其构造地震前兆意义[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(2):192-198.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun,Wu Yuhua,et al.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(2):192-198.
[3]吴立新,刘善军,吴育华,等.遥感岩石力学(III):交汇断层粘滑的热红外辐射与声发射规律及其构造地震前兆意义[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(3):401-407.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun,Wu Yuhua,et al.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(3):401-407.
[4]吴立新,刘善军,吴育华,等.遥感岩石力学(IV):岩石压剪破裂的热红外辐射规律及其地震前兆意义[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(4):539-544.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun,Wu Yuhua,et al.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(4):539-544.
[5]吴立新,刘善军,吴育华.遥感岩石力学引论:岩石受力灾变的红外遥感[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[6]刘善军,吴立新,李金平,等.台湾恒春地震前的卫星热红外异常特征及其机理[J].科技导报,2006,25(6):32-37.Liu Shanjun,Wu Lixin,Li Jinping,et al.Science & Technology Reviews,2006,25(6):32-37.
[7]Wu Lixin,Li Jinping,Xu Xiudeng,et al.Theoretical analysis to impending tectonic earthquake warning based on satellite infrared anomaly[C]//IGARSS2007,Barcelona,Spain,July23-27,2007:3723-3727.
[8]Li Jinping,Wu Lixin,Dong Yanqing,et al.Quantitative analyzing model for tectonic activity based on satellite thermal infrared anomaly[C]//IGARSS2007,Barcelona,Spain,July23-27,2007:3039-3042.
[9]吴立新,刘善军,陈云浩,等.汶川地震前卫星热红外异常与云异常现象[J].科技导报,2008,26(10):32-36.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun,Chen Yunhao,et al.Science & Technology Reviews,2008,26(10):32-36.
[10]吴立新,李德仁.未来对地观测协作与防灾减灾[J].地理与地理信息科学,2006,22(3):1-8.Wu Lixin,Li Deren.Geography and Geo-Information Science,2006,22(3):1-8.
[11]吴立新,刘善军.GEOSS条件下固体地球灾害的广义遥感监测[J].科技导报,2007,25(6):5-11.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun.Science & Technology Reviews,2007,25(6):5-11.
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