中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法Ⅱ:N-test和L-test方法
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摘要
本文介绍了国际"地震可预测性合作研究"CSEP计划中,用于地震概率预测模型检验的N-test和L-test方法的基本原理、发展动态。以地震活动平滑模型(smoothed seismicity model)在新疆天山中部地区的中长期预测结果为例,本文尝试使用N-test和L-test统计检验方法对预测结果进行评价。结果表明,上述方法能够较好地评价预测结果,并有助于构建更为科学合理的地震预测模型及相关参数设置。
In this paper,we introduce the principles and developments of the N-test and L-test methods which have been used to evaluate earthquake probabilistic forecasting models as routine statistical test methods in the CSEP(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) project.Selecting the middle section of Tianshan region as the study area,we perform evaluation of the Smoothed Seismicity model for intermediate-term and long-term retrospective forecasting with N-test and L-test methods.The results show that N-test and L-test methods are efficient to evaluate the earthquake prediction models and can be used to optimize parameter setting in the earthquake forecasting models.
In this paper,we introduce the principles and developments of the N-test and L-test methods which have been used to evaluate earthquake probabilistic forecasting models as routine statistical test methods in the CSEP(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) project.Selecting the middle section of Tianshan region as the study area,we perform evaluation of the Smoothed Seismicity model for intermediate-term and long-term retrospective forecasting with N-test and L-test methods.The results show that N-test and L-test methods are efficient to evaluate the earthquake prediction models and can be used to optimize parameter setting in the earthquake forecasting models.
引文
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[5]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.New seismic gap hypothesis:Five years after[J].J Geophys Res,1995,100(B3):3 934-3 959.
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[8]Frankel A,Mueller C,Barnhard T,et al.National seismic hazard maps[R].USGS Open-File Re-port,1996,96-532.
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[10]Frankel A.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States[J].Seism Res Lett,1995,66:8-21.
[11]Gutenberg R,Richter C F.Frequency of earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,1944,34:185-188.
[12]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,1994,99:13 685-13 700.
[13]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D,Rong Y.A testable five-year forecast of moderate and large earthquakesin Southern California based on smoothed seismicity[J].Seism Res Lett,2007,78:94-98.
[14]Zechar J D,Jordan T M.Simple smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy[J].Annals ofGeophyscics,2010,53(3):99-105.
[15]Nanjo K Z,Tsuruoka H,Hirata H,et al.Overview of the first earthquake forecast testing experi-ment in Japan[J].Earth Planers Space,2011,63:159-169.
[16]Gardner J K,Knopoff L.Is t he sequence of eart hquakes in Southern California,with aftershocksremoved,Poissonian?[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,1974,64(5):1 363-1 367.
[17]Reasenberg P A.Second-order moment of Central California seismicity,1962—1968[J].J GeophysRes,1985,90:5 479-5 495.
[18]李志海,蒋长胜,黄瑜,等.新疆地区地震目录最小完整性震级和台网科学布局研究[J].地震学报,2011,3(6):763-775.
[19]Imoto M,Rhoades D A,Fujiwara H,et al.Conventional N-,L-,and R-tests of earthquake forecas-ting models without simulated catalogs[J].Earth Planets Space,2011,63:275-287.
[2]Schorlemmer D,Gerstenberger M C.RELM Testing Center[J].Seismol Res Lett,2007,78:30-36.
[3]Werner M J,Zechar J D,Marzocchi W,et al.Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-yearCSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts[J].Ann Geophys,2010,53(3):11-30.
[4]Marzocchi W,Zechar J D.Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction:different approachesfor obtaining the best model[J].Seismol Res Lett,2011,82(3):442-448,doi:10.1785/gssrl.82.3.442.
[5]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.New seismic gap hypothesis:Five years after[J].J Geophys Res,1995,100(B3):3 934-3 959.
[6]Schorlemmer D,Gerstenberger M C,Wiemer S,et al.Earthquake likelihood model testing[J].Seismol Res Lett,2007,78:17-29.
[7]Zechar J D.Evaluating earthquake predictions and earthquake forecasts:aguide for students andnew researchers,Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis[J].2010.doi:10.5078/corssa-77337879.Available at http://www.corssa.org.
[8]Frankel A,Mueller C,Barnhard T,et al.National seismic hazard maps[R].USGS Open-File Re-port,1996,96-532.
[9]Helmstetter A,Kangan Y Y,Jackson D D.Comparison of short-term and long-term earthquakeforecast models for Southern California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,2006,96:90-106.
[10]Frankel A.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States[J].Seism Res Lett,1995,66:8-21.
[11]Gutenberg R,Richter C F.Frequency of earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,1944,34:185-188.
[12]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,1994,99:13 685-13 700.
[13]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D,Rong Y.A testable five-year forecast of moderate and large earthquakesin Southern California based on smoothed seismicity[J].Seism Res Lett,2007,78:94-98.
[14]Zechar J D,Jordan T M.Simple smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy[J].Annals ofGeophyscics,2010,53(3):99-105.
[15]Nanjo K Z,Tsuruoka H,Hirata H,et al.Overview of the first earthquake forecast testing experi-ment in Japan[J].Earth Planers Space,2011,63:159-169.
[16]Gardner J K,Knopoff L.Is t he sequence of eart hquakes in Southern California,with aftershocksremoved,Poissonian?[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,1974,64(5):1 363-1 367.
[17]Reasenberg P A.Second-order moment of Central California seismicity,1962—1968[J].J GeophysRes,1985,90:5 479-5 495.
[18]李志海,蒋长胜,黄瑜,等.新疆地区地震目录最小完整性震级和台网科学布局研究[J].地震学报,2011,3(6):763-775.
[19]Imoto M,Rhoades D A,Fujiwara H,et al.Conventional N-,L-,and R-tests of earthquake forecas-ting models without simulated catalogs[J].Earth Planets Space,2011,63:275-287.
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