南北地震带中南段地震学异常度的研究
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摘要
以我国南北地震带中南段的地震学资料为例 ,基于CAPSeis软件对N值、蠕变值、能量值、b值、缺震值、η值、GL值、Rm值、C值、D值等十项地震学预报指标进行空间扫描所得出的数据 ,以平均法和模数法计算地震学异常度 ,对研究区未来的地震学图象进行概率性的预测 ,其预报效能明显高于各单一参量的统计概率。
Taking the seismic data from the centric-south section of the south-north seismic zone, China as an example, according to analysis of the ten parameters of N-value, C-value, E-value, b-value, seismoless-value, η-value, GL-value, Rm-value, C-value and D-value obtained in space scanning by CAPseis softwar and using the average and modulus methods, seismological anomalyness is calculated. It is proved that the efficacy of probabilistic prediction of future seismic images in the studied area is probably better than ones from above mentioned single parameters.
Taking the seismic data from the centric-south section of the south-north seismic zone, China as an example, according to analysis of the ten parameters of N-value, C-value, E-value, b-value, seismoless-value, η-value, GL-value, Rm-value, C-value and D-value obtained in space scanning by CAPseis softwar and using the average and modulus methods, seismological anomalyness is calculated. It is proved that the efficacy of probabilistic prediction of future seismic images in the studied area is probably better than ones from above mentioned single parameters.
引文
[1]陈立军 ,周霞 ,于萍 ,陈晓逢 .中国东南沿海地区地震学异常度的探讨 .中国地震 ,1998,14 ( 2 ) :62 -70
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[2 ]国家地震局预测预防司 .地震分析预报应用软件 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1997
[3 ]国家地震局科技监测司 .地震学分析预报方法程式指南 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1990
[4]国家地震局预测预防司 .地震短临预报的理论与方法—“八五”攻关三级课题论文集 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1997
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