圣安德烈斯断层南段大地震发生的准周期性
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摘要
圣安德烈斯断层(美国加州)南段最后一次大地震距今已有153年了,而其平均震间间隔却仅为~100年。如果大地震的复发具有周期性,而并非随机发生或群集发生,则这个时间长度是很值得关注的,而且通常意味着概率意义上的地震危险性增大。遗憾的是,多数地震记录都很简单,这就限制了对单条断层上地震复发的分布特征的描述。本文利用加州Wrightwood 3000年中29次有地面破裂的地震的综合记录进行统计检验。结果表明此处地震的复发远比依据泊松分布预测的结果更具规律性,而且也不呈群集分布,由此,我们推断地震的复发具有准周期性。基于观测的敏感性分析对可供选择的地质记录解释进行严格检验,结果揭示出持续的单峰时间依从特征。这一结果为利用更新模型来正式预测圣安德烈斯断层南段未来地震概率提供了有力的支持。根据记录,仅有4个间隔(15%)长于目前的开放间隔,由此凸显了该断层当前地震形势的严峻性。
引文
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[25]Seitz G,Biasi G P,Weldon R W.An i mproved paleoseismic record of the San Andreas fault at Pit manCanyon.In:Noller J S,Sowers J M,Lettis WR(eds.),Quaternary Geochronology:Methods and Ap-plications.American Geophysical Union Reference Shelf 4,2000:563-566
[26]Sieh K,Stuiver M,Brillinger D.A more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the San Andreasfault in southern California.Journal of Geophysical Research,1989,94(B1):603-623
[27]Pal mer R,Weldon R W,Humphreys E,et al.Earthquake recurrence onthe southern San Andreas mod-ulated by fault-normal stress.Geophysical Research Letters,1995,22(5):535-538
[28]Tenthorey E,Cox S F,Todd HF.Evolution of strength recovery and permeability during fluid-rock re-actionin experi mental fault zones.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2003,206(1-2):161-172
[29]Biasi G P,Weldon RJ.Esti mating surface rupture length and magnitude of paleoearthquakes frompointmeasurements of rupture displacement.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2006,96(5):1612-1623
[30]Wesnousky.Displacement and geometrical characteristics of earthquake surface ruptures:Issues andi m-plications for seismic-hazard analysis and the process of earthquake rupture.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2008,98(4):1609-1632
[2]Field E H.A summary of previous working groups on California earthquake probabilities.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2007,97(4):1033-1053
[3]Nishenko S P,Buland R.A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,1987,77(4):1382-1399
[4]Parsons T,Toda S,Stein R S,et al.Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul:An interac-tion-based probability calculation.Science,2000,288(5466):661-665
[5]Petersen M D,Frankel A D,Harmsen S C,et al.Documentation for the 2008 update of the UnitedStates national seismic hazard maps.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1128,2008,61 p
[6]2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.The uniform California earthquake ruptureforecast,version 2(UCERF 2).U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437,2008,104 p
[7]Begin Z B,Steinberg D M,Ichinose G A,et al.A40000 year unchanging seismic regi meinthe Dead Searift.Geology,2005,33(4):257-260
[8]Weldon RJ,Fumal T E,Biasi G P,et al.Past and future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault.Sci-ence,2005,308(5724):966-967
[9]Wells A,Goff J.Coastal dunes in Westland,New Zealand,provide a record of paleoseismic activity onthe Alpine fault.Geology,2007,35(8):731-734
[10]Larson H J.Introduction to probability theory and statistical inference.New York,John Wiley andSons,1982,637 p
[11]Weldon RJ,Scharer K M,Fumal T E,et al.Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle:What a long recur-rence record tells us about howfaults work.GSA Today,2004,14:4-10
[12]Harris R A.Stress triggers,stress shadows,and seismic hazard.In:Lee W,Kanamori H,Jennings P,et al(eds.),International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology,Part B.San Diego,Academic Press,2002:1217-1232
[13]Wyss M,Wiemer S.Change in the probability for earthquakes in southern California due to the Landersmagnitude 7.3 earthquake.Science,2000,290(5495):1334-1338
[14]Ellsworth WL,Matthews MV,Nadeau R M,et al.Aphysically based earthquake recurrence model foresti mation of long-term earthquake probabilities.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-522,1999,22 p
[15]Matthews M V,Ellsworth WL,Reasenberg P A.A brownian model for recurrent earthquakes.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2002,92(6):2233-2250
[16]Biasi G P,Weldon R J,Fumal T E,et al.Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability oflarge earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault,California.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2002,92(7):2761-2781
[17]Ogata Y.Esti mating the hazard of rupture using uncertain ti mes of paleoearthquakes.Journal of Geo-physical Research,1999,104(B8):17995-18014
[18]Parsons T.Earthquake recurrence on the south Hayward fault is most consistent with a ti me dependent,renewal process.Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L21301,doi:10.1029/2008GL035887
[19]Sykes L R,Menke W.Repeat ti mes of large earthquakes:I mplications for earthquake mechanics andlong-termprediction.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2006,96(5):1569-1596
[20]Fumal T E,Schwartz D P,Pezzopane S K,et al.A100-year average recurrenceinterval for the San An-dreas fault at Wrightwood,California.Science,1993,259(5092):199-203
[21]Fumal T E,Weldon RJ,Biasi G P,et al.Evidence for large earthquakes onthe San Andreas fault at theWrightwood,California,paleoseismic site:AD 500 to present.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2002,92(7):2726-2760
[22]Scharer K M,Weldon R J,Fumal T E,et al.Paleoearthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault,Wrightwood,CA3000 to 1500 B.C.:Anew method for evaluating paleoseismic evidence and earthquakehorizons.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2007,97(4):1054-1093
[23]Weldon RJ,Fumal T E,Powers TJ,et al.Structure and earthquake offsets onthe San Andreas fault atthe Wrightwood,California,paleoseismic site.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2002,92(7):2704-2725
[24]Bonilla M G,Lienkaemper J J.Factors affecting the recognition of faults exposed in exploratorytrenches.U.S.Geological Survey Bulletin 1947,54 p
[25]Seitz G,Biasi G P,Weldon R W.An i mproved paleoseismic record of the San Andreas fault at Pit manCanyon.In:Noller J S,Sowers J M,Lettis WR(eds.),Quaternary Geochronology:Methods and Ap-plications.American Geophysical Union Reference Shelf 4,2000:563-566
[26]Sieh K,Stuiver M,Brillinger D.A more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the San Andreasfault in southern California.Journal of Geophysical Research,1989,94(B1):603-623
[27]Pal mer R,Weldon R W,Humphreys E,et al.Earthquake recurrence onthe southern San Andreas mod-ulated by fault-normal stress.Geophysical Research Letters,1995,22(5):535-538
[28]Tenthorey E,Cox S F,Todd HF.Evolution of strength recovery and permeability during fluid-rock re-actionin experi mental fault zones.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2003,206(1-2):161-172
[29]Biasi G P,Weldon RJ.Esti mating surface rupture length and magnitude of paleoearthquakes frompointmeasurements of rupture displacement.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2006,96(5):1612-1623
[30]Wesnousky.Displacement and geometrical characteristics of earthquake surface ruptures:Issues andi m-plications for seismic-hazard analysis and the process of earthquake rupture.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,2008,98(4):1609-1632
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