新疆地震年度趋势预报效能的统计评价
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摘要
介绍了统计检验的基本原理和方法及地震预报效能的统计评分方法,并据此对新疆维吾尔自治区地震局年度趋势会商预报的效能进行了统计评价。结果表明,从总体上说地震中期(年度)预报能通过检验,预报评分值约为0.25—0.3,显示出新疆地震局年度会商会的预测结果对地震中期预报有一定能力。由于各年的评分涨落很大,不宜依据一、二年的评分值来说明预报能力或水平的提高或下降。
The basic principle and method of statistical test and the statistical estimation method of earthquake prediction efficacy were introduced; and based on this, the prediction efficacy of annual earthquake trend consultation in the Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region was made a statistical estimation. The result shows that medium-term (annual) earthquake prediction can pass the test, the estimating mark is about (0.25)-0.3, which indicates the prediction result of annual consultation in Xinjiang Seismological Bureau has some medium-term prediction capability. But because every year's mark has large rise and fall, it is not fit to explain the change of prediction capability just based on one or two year's marks.
The basic principle and method of statistical test and the statistical estimation method of earthquake prediction efficacy were introduced; and based on this, the prediction efficacy of annual earthquake trend consultation in the Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region was made a statistical estimation. The result shows that medium-term (annual) earthquake prediction can pass the test, the estimating mark is about (0.25)-0.3, which indicates the prediction result of annual consultation in Xinjiang Seismological Bureau has some medium-term prediction capability. But because every year's mark has large rise and fall, it is not fit to explain the change of prediction capability just based on one or two year's marks.
引文
[1]朱令人,洪时中,陈棋福,等.一次地震预报有效性的"距准误差"评价法的研究[J].地震,2003,23(2):1—11.
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[4]朱成熹,朱令人,郑兴树.地震预报有效性的统计检验和统计效率值研究[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社.1991.389—405.
[5]洪时中.地震预报统计检验评分的基本原理和方法[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报实用化研究文集(地震学专集)[C].北京:学术期刊出版社.1989.576—585.
[6]秦卫平,洪时中.一维地震预报评分问题——3×2列联表在地震预报评分中的应用[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社.1991.406—412.
[2]朱令人,洪时中,陈棋福,等.一次地震预报有效性的"概率统计"评价法[J].地震,2004,23(2):119—125.
[3]朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,等.地震预报效能评价的研究[J].内陆地震,1990,4(1):1—12.
[4]朱成熹,朱令人,郑兴树.地震预报有效性的统计检验和统计效率值研究[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社.1991.389—405.
[5]洪时中.地震预报统计检验评分的基本原理和方法[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报实用化研究文集(地震学专集)[C].北京:学术期刊出版社.1989.576—585.
[6]秦卫平,洪时中.一维地震预报评分问题——3×2列联表在地震预报评分中的应用[A].国家地震局监测预报司.地震预报实用化研究文集(综合预报专集)[C].北京:地震出版社.1991.406—412.
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