中国汶川Ms8.0级地震前NDVI变化特征及其佐证
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摘要
利用归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据,探测了汶川Ms8.0级地震前植被变化情况。对震前9年的NDVI数据先做整体变化分析,没有发现明显的植被退化现象;再对时间序列数据进行逐年比对,发现两个比较明显的植被退化现象。其一,2006年与2005年相比,龙门山断裂东部的四川盆地大部分地区6—9月NDVI均值明显减小,幅度为0～20%。推测原因为震前四川盆地受挤压变形,产生热弹效应放热致使地表升温,进一步与大气耦合导致长期干旱少雨,破坏植被正常生长条件,使植被退化。因此,2006年四川盆地大范围植被退化现象可视为震前异常。其二,2008年5月上旬与2007年相比,龙门山断裂带上发现明显的植被退化现象,成条带状分布,NDVI下降幅度超过20%。这可能与临震前龙门山断裂带上发生某些物理化学变化有关,即临震前龙门山断裂带地壳岩石的破裂发育、断裂之间以及岩石之间的摩擦滑移,导致地下热物质上涌和摩擦生热释放,造成短期(近)地表高温,破坏了植被的正常生长条件,使其退化。因此,可以看作震前短期异常。此外,沿着时间尺度和空间尺度,找到一些震前中期和短期异常佐证,以增加植被异常判断的可信度。
By using NDVI data, the continuous change of vegetation prior to the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is investigated in this paper. Firstly, according to a comparison year by year, it was found that, to the east of Longmenshan Fault, in Sichuan Basin, the vegetation was degraded by 0～20% from 2005 to 2006. The phenomenon was caused by drought in 2006. Spatially, the movements of Sichuan Basin plate played an important role on the Wenchuan earthquake. Therefore, according to the relationship between drought and earthquake, the degradation could be regarded as one of precursory anomalies prior to the Wenchuan Earthquake. Secondly, the vegetation in early May in Longmenshan Fault was degraded significantly from 2007 to 2008. Moreover, the same phenomenon did not happen in other adjacent faults, like Xianshuihe Fault. As is well known, prior to earthquakes, there may be changes of electric and magnetic fields, gas emissions, groundwater levels, temperature, surface deformations, and so on. These changes are all related with the vegetation degradation to some extent, and they could be seen as a short-term anomaly prior to the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. Furthermore, the two anomalies developed spatio-temporally from distant regions to near regions with respect to the epicenter. Additionally, some evidences were found to re-confirm the effects of vegetation anomaly. For example, the anomaly of Earth resistivity was observed 2 years before the earthquake. However, there are some limitations for detection of vegetation anomaly prior to earthquake due to other influencing factors,such as growth periodicity and topography. Further research is needed.
By using NDVI data, the continuous change of vegetation prior to the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is investigated in this paper. Firstly, according to a comparison year by year, it was found that, to the east of Longmenshan Fault, in Sichuan Basin, the vegetation was degraded by 0～20% from 2005 to 2006. The phenomenon was caused by drought in 2006. Spatially, the movements of Sichuan Basin plate played an important role on the Wenchuan earthquake. Therefore, according to the relationship between drought and earthquake, the degradation could be regarded as one of precursory anomalies prior to the Wenchuan Earthquake. Secondly, the vegetation in early May in Longmenshan Fault was degraded significantly from 2007 to 2008. Moreover, the same phenomenon did not happen in other adjacent faults, like Xianshuihe Fault. As is well known, prior to earthquakes, there may be changes of electric and magnetic fields, gas emissions, groundwater levels, temperature, surface deformations, and so on. These changes are all related with the vegetation degradation to some extent, and they could be seen as a short-term anomaly prior to the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. Furthermore, the two anomalies developed spatio-temporally from distant regions to near regions with respect to the epicenter. Additionally, some evidences were found to re-confirm the effects of vegetation anomaly. For example, the anomaly of Earth resistivity was observed 2 years before the earthquake. However, there are some limitations for detection of vegetation anomaly prior to earthquake due to other influencing factors,such as growth periodicity and topography. Further research is needed.
引文
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[2]Tralli D M,Blom R G,Zlotnicki V,et al.Satellite remote sensing of earth-quake,volcano,flood,landslide and coastal inundation hazards[J].ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing,2005,59(4):185-198.
[3]Tronin A A.Remote sensing and earthquakes:A review[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2006,31(4-9):138-142.
[4]Singh R P,Dey S,Bhoi S,et al.Anomalous increase of chlorophyll concentrations associated with earthquakes[J].Advances in Space Research,2006,37(4):671-680.
[5]刘善军,吴立新,李金平,等.台湾恒春地震前的卫星热红外异常特征及其机理[J].科技导报,2007,25(6):32-37.Liu Shanjun,Wu Lixin,Li Jinping,et al.Science&Technology Review,2007,25(6):32-37.
[6]Saraf A K,Rawat V,Choudhury S,et al.Advances in understanding of the mechanism for generation of earthquake thermal precursors detected by satellites[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2009,11(6):373-379.
[7]秦凯,吴立新,马未宇.2009年青海海西地震序列的潜热通量异常时空特征[J].科技导报,2010,28(4):68-73.Qin Kai,Wu Lixin,Ma Weiyu.Science&Technology Review,2010,28(4):68-73.
[8]万才淦.中国古代一些地震前的植物异常[J].华南地震,1992,12(4):60-63.Wan Caigan.South China Journal of Seismology,1992,12(4):60-63.
[9]梁继运,万力,金晓媚,等.基于SPOT-VEGETATION数据的张掖盆地植被覆盖变化动态分析[J].科技导报,2009,27(12):65-70.Liang Jiyun,Wan Li,Jin Xiaomei,et al.Science&Technology Review,2009,27(12):65-70.
[10]宋怡,马明国.基于SPOT VEGETATION数据的中国西北植被覆盖变化分析[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(1):89-93.Song Yi,Ma Mingguo.Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(1):89-93.
[11]李震,阎福礼,范湘涛.中国西北地区NDVI变化及其与温度和降水的关系[J].遥感学报,2005,9(3):308-313.Li Zhen,Yan Fuli,Fan Xiangtao.Journal of Remote Sensing,2005,9(3):308-313.
[12]李连芳,杨金莲,黄菊梅,等.不可忽视的汶川大震前奇热奇旱奇涝特异背景剖析[J].高原地震,2008,20(4):69-75.Li Lianfang,Yang Jinlian,Huang Jumei,et al.Plateau Earthquake Research,2008,20(4):69-75.
[13]朱守彪,张培震.2008年汶川Ms8.0地震发生过程的动力学机制研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):418-427.Zhu Shoubiao,Zhang Peizhen.Chinese Journal Geophysics,2009,52(2):418-427.
[14]刘树根,田小彬,李智武,等.龙门山中段构造特征与汶川地震[J].成都理工大学学报:自然科学版,2008,35(4):388-397.Liu Shugen,Tian Xiaobin,Li Zhiwu,et al.Journal of Chengdu University of Technology:Science&Technology Edition,2008,35(4):388-397.
[15]2006年甘肃省水资源公报[R].2006,http://www.gssl.gov.cn/detail.asp?page_id=3825.Gansu Water Resources Bulletin[R].2006,http://www.gssl.gov.cn/detail.asp?page_id=3825.
[16]2006年四川省水资源公报[R].2006,http://www.hhubbs.com/thread-105954-1-1.html.Sichuan Water Resources Bulletin[R].2006,http://www.hhubbs.com/thread-105954-1-1.html.
[17]张肇诚,张炜.汶川8.0级地震的一些启示[J].地震,2009,29(1):193-202.Zhang Zhaocheng,Zhang Wei.Earthquake,2009,29(1):193-202.
[18]尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统失稳的前兆与地震预报——响应比理论及其应用[J].中国科学B辑,1991,21(5):512-518.Yin Xiangchu,Yin Can.Science in China,Ser B,1991,21(5):512-518.
[19]尹祥础,张浪平,张永仙,等.汶川8级地震前加卸载响应比的大尺度异常[J].地震,2009,29(1):53-59.Yin Xiangchu,Zhang Langping,Zhang Yongxian,et al.Earthquake,2009,29(1):53-59.
[20]刘五洲.地震地下流体前兆机理的研究综述[J].国际地震动态,1996(12):4-10.Liu Wuzhou.Resent Developments in World Seismology,1996(12):4-10.
[21]范雪芳,王吉易,陆明勇.汶川8.0级地震前典型流体中期前兆异常的初步研究[J].地震,2009,29(1):132-140.Fan Xuefang,Wang Jiyi,Lu Mingyong.Earthquake,2009,29(1):132-140.
[22]李延兴,张静华,周伟,等.汶川8.0地震孕育发生的机制与动力学问题[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):519-530.Li Yanxing,Zhang Jinghua,Zhou Wei,et al.Chinese Journal Geophysics,2009,52(2):519-530.
[23]钱复业,赵玉林.地震前地电阻率的异常变化[J].西北地震学报,1982,4(2):31-38.Qian Fuye,Zhao Yulin.Northwestern Seismological Journal,1982,4(2):31-38.
[24]陈章立,李志雄.严重的挫折重要的启示——汶川8.0级地震引发的对地震预测研究的某些科学思考[J].地震,2009,29(1):182-192.Chen Zhangli,Li Zhixiong.Earthquake,2009,29(1):182-192.
[25]吴立新,刘善军,陈云浩,等.地震前卫星热红外异常与云异常现象[J].科技导报,2008,26(10):32-36.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun,Chen Yunhao,et al.Science&Technology Review,2008,26(10):32-36.
[26]吴立新,刘善军.GEOSS条件下固体地球灾害的广义遥感监测[J].科技导报,2007,25(6):5-11.Wu Lixin,Liu Shanjun.Science&Technology Review,2007,25(6):5-11.
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