印尼8.7级地震对川滇地区地震活动的影响
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摘要
对1900年以来印尼爪哇海沟地区发生的8.0级以上地震与川滇地区5.0级以上地震作了统计、对比和分析,并利用跨断层位移流动观测资料,对2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊西部海域8.7级地震前后,川滇地区的区域构造活动变化进行了分析研究,初步认为:印尼8.7级地震后,川滇地区1~3年内发生7.0级以上地震的可能性不大;1~2年内发生6~7级地震的可能性较大;1年内发生5级以上地震至少两次;纬度27°以南地区可能是未来1年内发震的危险地区,地球自转速度减慢,可能预示川滇地区强震活跃期即将到来。
This paper made a statistical study, compared and analyzed the M≥8 earthquakes in Java trench, Indonesia, and the M≥5 earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region, China. The changes in tectonic activities of Sichuan-Yunnan region before and after the M8.7 Sumatran earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, were analyzed using cross-fault displacement observations. The preliminary result indicates that after the M8.7 Indonesian earthquake the probability of occurrence of an M>7 earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region within 1-3 years is low, whereas the probability of M6-7 earthquakes within 1-2 years is rather high; at least two M>5 earthquakes may occur within one year and the south area to 27°N is the high-risk region in the coming year. The slow-down of Earth rotation may indicate that an active period of strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region is coming.
This paper made a statistical study, compared and analyzed the M≥8 earthquakes in Java trench, Indonesia, and the M≥5 earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region, China. The changes in tectonic activities of Sichuan-Yunnan region before and after the M8.7 Sumatran earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, were analyzed using cross-fault displacement observations. The preliminary result indicates that after the M8.7 Indonesian earthquake the probability of occurrence of an M>7 earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region within 1-3 years is low, whereas the probability of M6-7 earthquakes within 1-2 years is rather high; at least two M>5 earthquakes may occur within one year and the south area to 27°N is the high-risk region in the coming year. The slow-down of Earth rotation may indicate that an active period of strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region is coming.
引文
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2林怀存,吴延河,等.印度洋8.7级地震及对未来地震趋势的讨论[J].国际地震动态,2005(1):31~36.2 Lin Huaicun,Wu Yanhe,et al.A discussion on the IndiaOceanM8.7 earthquake and future earthquake trends[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2005(1):31-36.(in Chinese)
3王庆廷,蒋福珍.边缘撕裂———一种致裂致震机制[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(4):97~100.3 Wang Qingting and Jiang Fuzhen.Margin tearing:a mech-anism causing fracture and earthquake[J].Journal of Ge-odesy and Geodynamics,2002,22(4):97-100.(in Chi-nese)
4曾秋生.中国地壳应力状态[M].北京:地震出版社,1990,9~12.4 Zeng Qiusheng.Crustal stress state in China[M].Bei-jing:Seismological Press,1990,9-12.(in Chinese)
5安欧.构造应力场[M].北京:地震出版社,1992,597~604.5 An Ou.Tectonic stress field[M].Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1992,597-604.(in Chinese)
6傅征祥.中国大陆地震活动性力学研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1997,66~73.6 Fu Zhengxiang.Studies on earthquake mechanics of Chinacontinent[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1997,66-73.(in Chinese)
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