2013年岷县漳县M_S6.6地震前/后地电观测引起的思考
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摘要
介绍了在2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震前/后地电学科所做的震情研判和预测预报工作,评价了震中附近甘东南及邻区台站出现的地电阻率观测数据异常。认为:(1)在地震短临阶段和紧接震后提出的两个地震预测意见大致符合本次地震主震、余震发生的实际情况;(2)在数据异常中包括了与本次地震有关的前兆异常信息和由于台站观测环境变化引起的干扰数据异常,震前震后的震情预测意见有一定程度的有科学意义和启示,也存在明显的不确定性。最后强调了加大力度保护地电观测环境的重要性。
This paper presents geo-electrical research in earthquakes and their forecasting performed prior to and immediately following the Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and appraises the observation data anomalies in apparent resistivity that appeared at stations in southeastern Gansu and its adjacent areas.The results of the research roughly agree with observation data of the actual principal earthquake and its strong aftershocks.In addition,the observation data anomalies include the anomalous information in apparent resistivity,which is directly associated with the earthquake and the data anomalies in apparent resistivity caused by certain disturbance factors.Therefore,the results have scientific significance in earthquake forecasting and obvious uncertainty;however,the testing is only tentative.Moreover,this paper examines several important factors in geo-electrical observation such as environmental protection because daily environmental disturbances have gradually restricted further development of such observation on the earth's surface.After surveying the operational aspects of geo-electrical stations,it is determined that developments in down-hole observation configurations or remote unmanned stations may lessen environmental disturbances when environmental protection is not possible.
This paper presents geo-electrical research in earthquakes and their forecasting performed prior to and immediately following the Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake and appraises the observation data anomalies in apparent resistivity that appeared at stations in southeastern Gansu and its adjacent areas.The results of the research roughly agree with observation data of the actual principal earthquake and its strong aftershocks.In addition,the observation data anomalies include the anomalous information in apparent resistivity,which is directly associated with the earthquake and the data anomalies in apparent resistivity caused by certain disturbance factors.Therefore,the results have scientific significance in earthquake forecasting and obvious uncertainty;however,the testing is only tentative.Moreover,this paper examines several important factors in geo-electrical observation such as environmental protection because daily environmental disturbances have gradually restricted further development of such observation on the earth's surface.After surveying the operational aspects of geo-electrical stations,it is determined that developments in down-hole observation configurations or remote unmanned stations may lessen environmental disturbances when environmental protection is not possible.
引文
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[8]解滔,杜学彬,陈军营,等.井下地电阻率观测中地表电流干扰影响的计算[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(1):112-121.XIE Tao,DU Xue-bin,CHEN Jun-ying,et al.Calculation for the Influence from the Surface Disturbance Current in the Deep-well Geoelectrical Resistivity Observation[J].Progress in Geophysics,2012,27(1):112-121.(in Chinese,with an English abstract)
[9]聂永安,巴振宁,聂瑶.深埋电极的地电阻率观测研究[J].地震学报,2010,32(1):33-40.NIE Yong-an,BA Zheng-ning,NIE Yao.Study on Buried Electrode Resistivity Monitoring System[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2010,32(1):33-40.(in Chinese,with an English abstract)
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[13]杜学彬,赵和云,陈宝智.地电阻率临震突变与活断层、发震应力场[J].地震学报,1993,15(3):303-312.DU Xue-bn,ZHAO He-yun,CHEN Bao-zhi.On the Relation of the Imminent Sudden Change in Earth Resistivity to the Active and Earthquake-generating Stress Field[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1993,6(3):663-673.(in Chinese)
[14]杜学彬,阎志德,邹明武.景泰6.2级地震震源动力学过程[J].地震学报,1994,16(3):296-303.DU Xue-bin,ZHI De-yan,ZOU Ming-wu.Process ofsource dynamics of the Jingtai earthquake(M=6.2)[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1994,7(3):379-388.(in Chinese)
[15]杜学彬,马占虎,叶青,等.与强地震有关的视电阻率各向异性变化[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(1):93-100.DU Xue-bin,MA Zhan-hu,YE Qing,et al.Anisotropic Changes in Apparent Resistivity Associated with Strong Earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysics,2006,21(1):93-100.(in Chinese,with an English abstract)
[16]叶青,杜学彬,陈军营,等.2003年大姚和民乐-山丹地震1年尺度预测[J].地震研究,2005,28(3):226-230.YE Qing,DU Xue-bin,CHEN Jun-ying,et al.One Year Prediction for the Dayao and Minle-shandan Earthquakes in2003[J].Journal of Seismological Research.2005,28(3):226-230.(in Chinese,with an English abstract)226-230.in Chinesewith an English abstract
[17]http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2013/0724/c70731-22312220.html[J].Science,1973,180:632-641.
[18]杜学彬,阮爱国,范世宏,等.强震近震中区地电阻率变化速率的各向异性[J].地震学报,2001,23(3):289-297.DU Xue-bin,RUAN Ai-guo,FAN Shi-hong,et al.Anisotropy of the Vartation Rate of Apparent Resistivity Near the Epicentral Region of Strong Earthquakes[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2001,14(3):303-314.(in Chinese)
[19]杜学彬,李宁,叶青,等.强地震附近视电阻率各向异性变化的原因[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(6):1802-1810.DU Xue-bin,LI Ning,YE Qing,et al.A Possible Reason for the Anisotropic Changes in Apparent Resistivity near the Focal Region of Strong Earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2007,50(6):1555-1655.
[20]杜学彬,任广军,薛顺章.中国大陆多种前兆异常研究及强震的尝试性预测[J].西北地震学报.1999,21(2):113-122.DU Xue-bin,REN Guang-jun,XUE Shun-zhang.Study on Many Kinds of Precursory Anomalies and Trial Prediction of Strong Earthquakes in the Continent of China[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1999,21(2):113-122.(in Chinese with an English abstract)
[21]范莹莹,杜学彬,谭大诚,等.甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震前甘肃平凉台地电场异常[J].地震工程学报,2013,?(?):-FAN Ying-ying,DU Xue-bin,TAN Da-cheng,et al.The Variation of Geoelectrical Field for Pingliang station in Gansu Province before the MS6.6 Minxian-zhangxian Earthquake[J](in Chinese,with an English abstract).China Earthquake Engineering Joutnal,2013,??(in Chinese)[J].BSSA,1975,65(2):425-437.
[22]杜学彬,叶青,马占虎,等.强地震附近电阻率对称四极观测的探测深度[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(6):1943-1949.DU Xue-bin,YE Qing,MA Zhan-hu,et al.The Detection Depth of Symmetric Four-electrode Resistivity Observation in/near the Epicentral Region of Strong Earthquakes.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2008,51(6):1220-1228.(in Chinese)
[23]刘君,杜学彬,范莹莹,等.甘肃岷县漳县Ms6.6地震前的地电阻率变化[J].地震工程学报,2013,?(?):-LIU Jun,DU Xue-bin,FAN Ying-ying,et al.The Geo-electrical Resistivity Anomaly before the MS6.6Minxian-Zhangxian Earthquake in Gansu(in Chinese,with an English abstract[J].China Earthquake Engineering Joutnal,2013,?(?):-(in Chinese)
[24]解滔,杜学彬,郑国磊,等.水平两层均匀介质中井下电阻率观测信噪比的理论计算[J].西北地震学报.2012,34(1):18-22.XIE Tao,DU Xue-bin,ZHENG Guo-lei,et al.Theoretical Calculation for the Signal Noise Ratio of the Underground Electric Resistivity Observation in the Two-layered Horizontal Homogeneous Medium[J].(in Chinese),Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):18-22.(in Chinese)
[25]康云生,安海静,马可兴,等.天水地电阻率地表与井下多种观测方式的试验分析[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(1):190~195.KANG Yun-sheng,AN Hai-jing,MA Ke-xing,et al.Test analysis on Geoelectrical resistivity observation combining the surface and deep-well methods at Tianshui seismic station in Gansu province[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(1):190-195.(in Chinese)
[2]C H Scholz,L R Sykes,Y P Aggrawal.Earthquake prediction:A physical basis[J].Science,1973,181(4102):803-809.
[3]ОМБарсуков,著.陈有发,译.地震电性前兆的可能原因[A]//地震地电学译文集[G].北京:地震出版社,1989,312-318.BorsukovОМ.(Chen Y F trans.).A possible cause of seismic precursor in electrical property[A]//Qian J D,Chen Y F,eds.Translation Collections of Seismic Geoelectrics[G].Beijing:Seismological Process,1989,312-318.(in Chinese)
[4]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993,302-307.MEI Shi-rong,MENG De-yi,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.An Introduction to Earthquake Prediction in China[J].Beijing:Seismological Press,1993,302-307.(in Chinese)
[5]杜学彬,薛顺章,郝臻,等.地电阻率中短期异常与地震的关系[J].地震学报,2000,22(4):368-376.DU Xue-bin,XUE Shun-zhang,HAO Zhen,et al.On the Relation of Moderate-short Term Anomaly of Earth Resistivity to Earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2000,13(4):393-403.(in Chinese)
[6]王邦本,刘永兰,李验轩.深井电阻率与地震预报[J].地震研究,1981,4(1):398-403.WANG Bang-ben,LIU Yong-lan,LI Yan-xuan.The Electric Resistivity in the Boreholes and the Earthquake Prediction[J].Journal of Seismological Research,1981,4(1):398-403.(in Chinese)
[7]刘允秀,吴国有,王蕃树,等.深埋电极地电阻率观测的实验结果[A]//地震预测——地电方法论文集[G].福州:福建科学技术出版社,1985:206-216.LIU Yun-xiu,WU Guo-you,WANG Fan-shu,et al.Test result for buried electrode resistivity observation[A]//Collect Works of Earthquake Prediction-Geoelectrical Methods[G].Fuzhou:Science and Technology Press of Fujian,1985:206-216 .(in Chinese)
[8]解滔,杜学彬,陈军营,等.井下地电阻率观测中地表电流干扰影响的计算[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(1):112-121.XIE Tao,DU Xue-bin,CHEN Jun-ying,et al.Calculation for the Influence from the Surface Disturbance Current in the Deep-well Geoelectrical Resistivity Observation[J].Progress in Geophysics,2012,27(1):112-121.(in Chinese,with an English abstract)
[9]聂永安,巴振宁,聂瑶.深埋电极的地电阻率观测研究[J].地震学报,2010,32(1):33-40.NIE Yong-an,BA Zheng-ning,NIE Yao.Study on Buried Electrode Resistivity Monitoring System[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2010,32(1):33-40.(in Chinese,with an English abstract)
[10]钱复业,赵玉林,于谋明,等.地震前地电阻率的异常变化[J].中国科学(B辑),1982,(9):831-839.QIAN Fu-ye,ZHAO Yu-lin,YU Mou-ming,et al.Geo-resistivity anomaly before earthquake[J].Science in China(B),1982,(9):831-839.(in Chinese)
[11]桂燮泰,关华平,戴经安.唐山、松潘地震前视电阻率短临异常图像重现性[J].西北地震学报,1989,11(4):71-75.GUI Yi-tai,GUAN Hua-ping,DAI Jing-an.The short-term and immediate anomalous pattern recurrences of the apparent resistivity before the Tangshan and Songpan earthquake of1976[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal(in Chinese),1989,11(4):71-75.(in Chinese,with an English abstract)
[12]钱家栋,陈有发,金安忠.地电阻率法在地震预报中的应用[M].北京:地震出版社,1985:103-107,187-225.QIAN Ja-dong,CHEN You-fa,JIN An-zhong.The Georesistivity Method Used in Earthquake Prediction(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:Seismological press,1985,103-107,187-225.(in Chinese)
[13]杜学彬,赵和云,陈宝智.地电阻率临震突变与活断层、发震应力场[J].地震学报,1993,15(3):303-312.DU Xue-bn,ZHAO He-yun,CHEN Bao-zhi.On the Relation of the Imminent Sudden Change in Earth Resistivity to the Active and Earthquake-generating Stress Field[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1993,6(3):663-673.(in Chinese)
[14]杜学彬,阎志德,邹明武.景泰6.2级地震震源动力学过程[J].地震学报,1994,16(3):296-303.DU Xue-bin,ZHI De-yan,ZOU Ming-wu.Process ofsource dynamics of the Jingtai earthquake(M=6.2)[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1994,7(3):379-388.(in Chinese)
[15]杜学彬,马占虎,叶青,等.与强地震有关的视电阻率各向异性变化[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(1):93-100.DU Xue-bin,MA Zhan-hu,YE Qing,et al.Anisotropic Changes in Apparent Resistivity Associated with Strong Earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysics,2006,21(1):93-100.(in Chinese,with an English abstract)
[16]叶青,杜学彬,陈军营,等.2003年大姚和民乐-山丹地震1年尺度预测[J].地震研究,2005,28(3):226-230.YE Qing,DU Xue-bin,CHEN Jun-ying,et al.One Year Prediction for the Dayao and Minle-shandan Earthquakes in2003[J].Journal of Seismological Research.2005,28(3):226-230.(in Chinese,with an English abstract)226-230.in Chinesewith an English abstract
[17]http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2013/0724/c70731-22312220.html[J].Science,1973,180:632-641.
[18]杜学彬,阮爱国,范世宏,等.强震近震中区地电阻率变化速率的各向异性[J].地震学报,2001,23(3):289-297.DU Xue-bin,RUAN Ai-guo,FAN Shi-hong,et al.Anisotropy of the Vartation Rate of Apparent Resistivity Near the Epicentral Region of Strong Earthquakes[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2001,14(3):303-314.(in Chinese)
[19]杜学彬,李宁,叶青,等.强地震附近视电阻率各向异性变化的原因[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(6):1802-1810.DU Xue-bin,LI Ning,YE Qing,et al.A Possible Reason for the Anisotropic Changes in Apparent Resistivity near the Focal Region of Strong Earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2007,50(6):1555-1655.
[20]杜学彬,任广军,薛顺章.中国大陆多种前兆异常研究及强震的尝试性预测[J].西北地震学报.1999,21(2):113-122.DU Xue-bin,REN Guang-jun,XUE Shun-zhang.Study on Many Kinds of Precursory Anomalies and Trial Prediction of Strong Earthquakes in the Continent of China[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1999,21(2):113-122.(in Chinese with an English abstract)
[21]范莹莹,杜学彬,谭大诚,等.甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震前甘肃平凉台地电场异常[J].地震工程学报,2013,?(?):-FAN Ying-ying,DU Xue-bin,TAN Da-cheng,et al.The Variation of Geoelectrical Field for Pingliang station in Gansu Province before the MS6.6 Minxian-zhangxian Earthquake[J](in Chinese,with an English abstract).China Earthquake Engineering Joutnal,2013,??(in Chinese)[J].BSSA,1975,65(2):425-437.
[22]杜学彬,叶青,马占虎,等.强地震附近电阻率对称四极观测的探测深度[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(6):1943-1949.DU Xue-bin,YE Qing,MA Zhan-hu,et al.The Detection Depth of Symmetric Four-electrode Resistivity Observation in/near the Epicentral Region of Strong Earthquakes.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2008,51(6):1220-1228.(in Chinese)
[23]刘君,杜学彬,范莹莹,等.甘肃岷县漳县Ms6.6地震前的地电阻率变化[J].地震工程学报,2013,?(?):-LIU Jun,DU Xue-bin,FAN Ying-ying,et al.The Geo-electrical Resistivity Anomaly before the MS6.6Minxian-Zhangxian Earthquake in Gansu(in Chinese,with an English abstract[J].China Earthquake Engineering Joutnal,2013,?(?):-(in Chinese)
[24]解滔,杜学彬,郑国磊,等.水平两层均匀介质中井下电阻率观测信噪比的理论计算[J].西北地震学报.2012,34(1):18-22.XIE Tao,DU Xue-bin,ZHENG Guo-lei,et al.Theoretical Calculation for the Signal Noise Ratio of the Underground Electric Resistivity Observation in the Two-layered Horizontal Homogeneous Medium[J].(in Chinese),Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):18-22.(in Chinese)
[25]康云生,安海静,马可兴,等.天水地电阻率地表与井下多种观测方式的试验分析[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(1):190~195.KANG Yun-sheng,AN Hai-jing,MA Ke-xing,et al.Test analysis on Geoelectrical resistivity observation combining the surface and deep-well methods at Tianshui seismic station in Gansu province[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(1):190-195.(in Chinese)
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