基于信息扩散估计的洪水风险分析
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摘要
针对信息扩散估计的过扩散和欠扩散问题,在分析择近窗宽法和最优窗宽法的基础上,结合二者的优点,提出了一种确定扩散窗宽的多目标综合优化方法.经对2χ分布和F分布的检验表明,该方法能较好地逼近理论分布曲线.应用该法对黄河干流龙门站年最大流量的洪水风险进行分析,得到了最大流量概率密度分布函数以及不同重现期的估计值,为维持黄河的健康提供了较为客观的依据.
Aim at the overdiffuse and subdiffuse of information diffuse estimation,a multi-subject integrated optimization was given to determine diffused window width based on analyzing closest window width means and optimal window width means.By testing χ2 and F distribution of data,it was proved that the method had a better approach to theoretical distribution curve than above two methods.To research its effect in flood risk analysis,the maximum discharge was took at Longmen station in the main stream of the yellow river as an example,and probability density distribution function of maximum discharge and the estimated value of different recurrence intervals were obtained.They could be used as the more objective data to protect the yellow river health.
Aim at the overdiffuse and subdiffuse of information diffuse estimation,a multi-subject integrated optimization was given to determine diffused window width based on analyzing closest window width means and optimal window width means.By testing χ2 and F distribution of data,it was proved that the method had a better approach to theoretical distribution curve than above two methods.To research its effect in flood risk analysis,the maximum discharge was took at Longmen station in the main stream of the yellow river as an example,and probability density distribution function of maximum discharge and the estimated value of different recurrence intervals were obtained.They could be used as the more objective data to protect the yellow river health.
引文
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[6]Huang C F.Information matrix and application[J].International Journal of General Systems,2001,30(6):603-622.
[7]王新洲,游扬声,汤永净.最优信息扩散估计理论及其应用[J].地理空间信息,2003,1(1):10-17,21.Wang Xinzhou,You Yangsheng,Tang Yongjing.The theory of optimal information diffusion estimatin and itsapplication[J].Geospatial Information,2003,1(1):10-17,21.(in Chinese)
[2]黄崇福,王家鼎.模糊信息优化处理技术及其应用[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1995.
[3]黄崇福,张俊香,刘静.模糊信息优化处理技术应用简介[J].信息与控制,2004,33(1):61-66.Huang Chongfu,Zhang Junxiang,Liu Jin.Applications of fuzzy information optimization technolog[J].Informationand Control,2004,33(1):61-66.(in Chinese)
[4]Huang C F.Information diffusion techniques&small sample problem[J].International Journal of InformationTechnology and Decision Making,2002,1(2):229-249.
[5]Huang C F,Moraga C,Yuan X G.Calculation vs.subjective assessment with respect to fuzzy probability[C].ReuschB.Computational Intelligence-Theory and Applications(Proceedings of the 7th International Fuzzy Days Conference).Heidelberg:Springer,2001:393-411.
[6]Huang C F.Information matrix and application[J].International Journal of General Systems,2001,30(6):603-622.
[7]王新洲,游扬声,汤永净.最优信息扩散估计理论及其应用[J].地理空间信息,2003,1(1):10-17,21.Wang Xinzhou,You Yangsheng,Tang Yongjing.The theory of optimal information diffusion estimatin and itsapplication[J].Geospatial Information,2003,1(1):10-17,21.(in Chinese)
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