前兆性地震平静研究
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摘要
作为一种重要的强震前兆现象,地震平静有可能提供关于地震位置、时间和大小的有用信息,在地震预测中将具有重要作用.为全面了解地震平静这一极具希望的前兆现象,本文将详细地阐述地震平静的定义、研究方法、存在规律、模型及其可能的物理机制,并对存在的问题与未来的发展提出初步的设想.
As a significant precursor to large earthquake,seismic quiescence can play an important role in earthquake prediction,possibly providing useful information on its location,time and size.To comprehend the very promising precursory seismic quiescence,this paper elucidates the definition,study methods,existing rules,models and possible physical mechanism of the seismic quiescence in detail,and propose some comments concerning the existing problems and prospective developments.
As a significant precursor to large earthquake,seismic quiescence can play an important role in earthquake prediction,possibly providing useful information on its location,time and size.To comprehend the very promising precursory seismic quiescence,this paper elucidates the definition,study methods,existing rules,models and possible physical mechanism of the seismic quiescence in detail,and propose some comments concerning the existing problems and prospective developments.
引文
[1]Ogata Y.Space-time model for regional seismicity and detec-tion of crustal stress changes[J].Journal of Geophysical Re-search-Solid Earth,2004,109(B3):23.
[2]Wyss M,Martirosyan A H.Seismic quiescence before theM7,1988,Spitak earthquake,Armenia[J].GeophysicalJournal International,1998,134(2):329.
[3]Wyss M,Shimazaki K,Urabe T.Quantitative mapping of aprecursory seismic quiescence to the Izu-Oshima 1990(M6.5)earthquake,Japan[J].Geophys J Int,1996,127:735~743.
[4]Katsumata K,Kasahara.Precursory seismic quiescence beforethe 1994 Kurile earthquake(M-w=8.3)revealed by three in-dependent seismic catalogs[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1999,155(2~4):443~470.
[5]Huang Q,Sobolev G A,Nagao T.Characteristics of the seis-mic quiescence and activation patterns before theM=7.2 Kobeearthquake,January 17,1995[J].Tectonophysics,2001,337:99~116.
[6]Sobolev G A,Huangm Q,Nagao T.Phases of earthquake'spreparation and by chance test of seismic quiescence anomaly[J].Journal of Geodynamics,2002,33:413~424.
[7]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Seismic quiescence before the Landers(M=7.3)and Big Bear(M=6.5)1992 earthquakes[J].BullSeism Soc Am,1994,84:900~916.
[8]Huang Q,Oncel A O,Sobolev G A.Precursory seismicitychanges associated with theMw=7.4 1999 August 17 Izmit(Turkey)earthquake[J].Geophysical Journal International,2002,151:235~242.
[9]Di Giovambattista R,Tyupkin Y.Seismicity patterns beforetheM=5.8 2002,Palermo(Italy)earthquake:seismic quies-cence and accelerating seismicity[J].Tectonophysics,2004,384(1~4):243~255.
[10]Habermann R E.Precursory seismic quiescence:past,pres-ent and future[J].Pure and applied Geophysics,1988,126(2~4):79~318.
[11]Wyss M,Habermann R E.Precursory seismic quiescence[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1988,126(2~4):319~332.
[12]Ogata Y.Detection of precursory relative quiescence beforegreat earthquakes through a statistical model[J].J GeophysRes,1992,97:19845~19871.
[13]宋俊高,王炜,潘坚云,李东升.地震异常平静用于短期预报的研究[J].地震,1994,(1):48~56.
[14]宋俊高,王炜,陆锦花.前兆性地震平静在中期预报中的定量研究[J].西北地震学报,1997,19(3):37~43.
[15]刘祖荫.1988年云南澜沧-耿马大地震前地震活动平静的统计研究[J].中国地震,1996,12(1):75~82.
[16]王丽凤,马丽,李勇,陈时军.试用累积求和方法研究地震活动平静现象及大震概率预报[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(5):672~683.
[17]Wyss M,Sobolev G,Clippard J.Seismic quiescence precur-sors to twoM7 earthquakes on Sakhalin Island,measured bytwo methods[J].Earth Planets and Space,2004,56(8):725~740.
[18]Ohtake M,Matumoto T,Latham G.Seismicity gap nearOaxaca,southern Mexico as a probable precursor to a largeearthquake[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1977,115:375~385.
[19]Kisslinger C.An experiment in earthquake prediction and the7 May 1986 Andreanof islands earthquake[J].Bull Seism SocAm,1988,78:218~229.
[20]Kato N,Ohtake M,Hirasawa T.Possible mechanism of pre-cursory seismic quiescence:regional stress relaxation due topreseismic sliding[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1997,150:249~267.
[21]Scholz C H.Mechanisms of seismic quiescences[J].Pure andapplied Geophysics,1988,126(2~4):701~718.
[22]韩渭宾.三种地震“平静”的概念及其预报意义综述[J].国际地震动态,1998,(5):9~13.
[23]Matthews M V,Reasenberg P A.Statistical method for in-vestigating quiescence and other temporal seismicity pattern[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1988,126(2~4):357~372.
[24]刘蒲雄.大震前地震活动图像演变及中期向短期过渡的地震活动性标志[J].地震,1997,17(2):113~125.
[25]孙加林,陆远忠,曹井泉,吕悦军,张建中,郑月君.地震活动性图像演化及有序性在短临预报中应用研究的新进展[J].地震,1995,增刊:110~117.
[26]陈学忠,吕晓健,王慧敏.中国大陆地震活跃期和平静期的b值与地震趋势研究[J].地震,2001,21(1):59~62.
[27]Sobolev G A,Tyupkin Y S.Low-seismicity precursors oflarge earthquakes in Kamchatka[J].Volcanol Seismol,1997,18:433~446.
[28]Huang Q,Sobolev G A.Precursory seismicity changes associ-ated with the Nemuro Peninsula earthquake,January 28,2000[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2002,21:135~146.
[29]Sobolev G.The example of earthquake preparation in Kam-chatka and Japan[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:269~279.
[30]陈荣华.华北地震区地震平静幕持续时间的变化及其解释[J].地震研究,1994,17(4):407~412.
[31]杨立明,石特临,郭大庆.地震活动性非线性行为的数学建模[J].地震学报,1995,17(2):180~187.
[32]黄忠贤.地震活跃期和平静期的模型研究[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):187~193.
[33]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(一)———坚固体孕震模式的由来与证据[J].地震学报,1995,17(3):273~282.
[34]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(三)———强震孕育时地震活动与地壳形变场异常及机制[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):170~178.
[35]Kato N,Hirasawa T.The variation of stresses due to aseis-mic sliding and its effect on seismic activity[J].Pure and Ap-plied Geophysics,1999,155(2~4):425~442.
[36]Lomnitz C,Nava F A.The predictive value of seismic gaps[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1983,73:1815~1824.
[2]Wyss M,Martirosyan A H.Seismic quiescence before theM7,1988,Spitak earthquake,Armenia[J].GeophysicalJournal International,1998,134(2):329.
[3]Wyss M,Shimazaki K,Urabe T.Quantitative mapping of aprecursory seismic quiescence to the Izu-Oshima 1990(M6.5)earthquake,Japan[J].Geophys J Int,1996,127:735~743.
[4]Katsumata K,Kasahara.Precursory seismic quiescence beforethe 1994 Kurile earthquake(M-w=8.3)revealed by three in-dependent seismic catalogs[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1999,155(2~4):443~470.
[5]Huang Q,Sobolev G A,Nagao T.Characteristics of the seis-mic quiescence and activation patterns before theM=7.2 Kobeearthquake,January 17,1995[J].Tectonophysics,2001,337:99~116.
[6]Sobolev G A,Huangm Q,Nagao T.Phases of earthquake'spreparation and by chance test of seismic quiescence anomaly[J].Journal of Geodynamics,2002,33:413~424.
[7]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Seismic quiescence before the Landers(M=7.3)and Big Bear(M=6.5)1992 earthquakes[J].BullSeism Soc Am,1994,84:900~916.
[8]Huang Q,Oncel A O,Sobolev G A.Precursory seismicitychanges associated with theMw=7.4 1999 August 17 Izmit(Turkey)earthquake[J].Geophysical Journal International,2002,151:235~242.
[9]Di Giovambattista R,Tyupkin Y.Seismicity patterns beforetheM=5.8 2002,Palermo(Italy)earthquake:seismic quies-cence and accelerating seismicity[J].Tectonophysics,2004,384(1~4):243~255.
[10]Habermann R E.Precursory seismic quiescence:past,pres-ent and future[J].Pure and applied Geophysics,1988,126(2~4):79~318.
[11]Wyss M,Habermann R E.Precursory seismic quiescence[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1988,126(2~4):319~332.
[12]Ogata Y.Detection of precursory relative quiescence beforegreat earthquakes through a statistical model[J].J GeophysRes,1992,97:19845~19871.
[13]宋俊高,王炜,潘坚云,李东升.地震异常平静用于短期预报的研究[J].地震,1994,(1):48~56.
[14]宋俊高,王炜,陆锦花.前兆性地震平静在中期预报中的定量研究[J].西北地震学报,1997,19(3):37~43.
[15]刘祖荫.1988年云南澜沧-耿马大地震前地震活动平静的统计研究[J].中国地震,1996,12(1):75~82.
[16]王丽凤,马丽,李勇,陈时军.试用累积求和方法研究地震活动平静现象及大震概率预报[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(5):672~683.
[17]Wyss M,Sobolev G,Clippard J.Seismic quiescence precur-sors to twoM7 earthquakes on Sakhalin Island,measured bytwo methods[J].Earth Planets and Space,2004,56(8):725~740.
[18]Ohtake M,Matumoto T,Latham G.Seismicity gap nearOaxaca,southern Mexico as a probable precursor to a largeearthquake[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1977,115:375~385.
[19]Kisslinger C.An experiment in earthquake prediction and the7 May 1986 Andreanof islands earthquake[J].Bull Seism SocAm,1988,78:218~229.
[20]Kato N,Ohtake M,Hirasawa T.Possible mechanism of pre-cursory seismic quiescence:regional stress relaxation due topreseismic sliding[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1997,150:249~267.
[21]Scholz C H.Mechanisms of seismic quiescences[J].Pure andapplied Geophysics,1988,126(2~4):701~718.
[22]韩渭宾.三种地震“平静”的概念及其预报意义综述[J].国际地震动态,1998,(5):9~13.
[23]Matthews M V,Reasenberg P A.Statistical method for in-vestigating quiescence and other temporal seismicity pattern[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1988,126(2~4):357~372.
[24]刘蒲雄.大震前地震活动图像演变及中期向短期过渡的地震活动性标志[J].地震,1997,17(2):113~125.
[25]孙加林,陆远忠,曹井泉,吕悦军,张建中,郑月君.地震活动性图像演化及有序性在短临预报中应用研究的新进展[J].地震,1995,增刊:110~117.
[26]陈学忠,吕晓健,王慧敏.中国大陆地震活跃期和平静期的b值与地震趋势研究[J].地震,2001,21(1):59~62.
[27]Sobolev G A,Tyupkin Y S.Low-seismicity precursors oflarge earthquakes in Kamchatka[J].Volcanol Seismol,1997,18:433~446.
[28]Huang Q,Sobolev G A.Precursory seismicity changes associ-ated with the Nemuro Peninsula earthquake,January 28,2000[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2002,21:135~146.
[29]Sobolev G.The example of earthquake preparation in Kam-chatka and Japan[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:269~279.
[30]陈荣华.华北地震区地震平静幕持续时间的变化及其解释[J].地震研究,1994,17(4):407~412.
[31]杨立明,石特临,郭大庆.地震活动性非线性行为的数学建模[J].地震学报,1995,17(2):180~187.
[32]黄忠贤.地震活跃期和平静期的模型研究[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):187~193.
[33]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(一)———坚固体孕震模式的由来与证据[J].地震学报,1995,17(3):273~282.
[34]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(三)———强震孕育时地震活动与地壳形变场异常及机制[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):170~178.
[35]Kato N,Hirasawa T.The variation of stresses due to aseis-mic sliding and its effect on seismic activity[J].Pure and Ap-plied Geophysics,1999,155(2~4):425~442.
[36]Lomnitz C,Nava F A.The predictive value of seismic gaps[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1983,73:1815~1824.
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