基于正态云模型的吉林省耕地生态安全诊断
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摘要
耕地生态安全评价中传统评价方法无法兼顾评价指标和评价结果存在模糊性和随机性,为了弥补此缺陷,将人工智能的正态云模型引入耕地生态安全评价中。借助正态云模型、熵值赋权法、实证研究法,基于Matlab 7. 1软件平台,构建吉林省耕地生态安全诊断PSR-EES框架体系,对2000—2016年吉林省耕地生态安全状况进行综合诊断。结果表明:(1)研究期内,吉林省耕地生态安全状况经历了"临界安全—较安全—临界安全—安全"的演化过程,整体呈趋好态势;(2)单一指标演化发展中,状态层和响应层多数指标优化趋势明显,压力层指标恶化较快。正态云模型实现了评价指标向耕地生态安全等级的不确定性映射,兼顾了评价指标和评价结果存在的随机性和模糊性,使评价结果更具客观性,适用于耕地生态安全评价。
The aim of this study is to make up for the defects that the traditional evaluation method can not balance the evaluation index and the fuzzy and randomness of the evaluation results,and introduce the normal cloud model of artificial intelligence into the ecological security evaluation of cultivated land. Research methods of normal cloud model,entropy weighting method,empirical research method are used in this paper. Based on the Matlab7. 1 software platform,the PSR-EES framework system for the ecological security diagnosis of cultivated land in Jilin Province was constructed. The normal cloud model was used to comprehensively diagnose the ecological security status of cultivated land in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that:( 1) During the research period,the ecological security status of cultivated land in Jilin Province experienced the evolution process of "critical safety-safety-critical safety-safety",and the overall situation showed a good trend;( 2) As for the evolution of single index,most of the indicators in the state layer and response layer have obvious optimization trends,while the pressure layer indicators deteriorate rapidly. The normal cloud model realizes the uncertainty mapping of the evaluation index to the ecological security level of cultivated land,taking into account the evaluation index and evaluation results. The randomness and ambiguity of existence make the evaluation results more objective and applicable to the evaluation of cultivated land ecological security. The conclusions of the study has revealed the evolution mechanism of cultivated land ecological security in Jilin Province and has proposed optimization strategies.
The aim of this study is to make up for the defects that the traditional evaluation method can not balance the evaluation index and the fuzzy and randomness of the evaluation results,and introduce the normal cloud model of artificial intelligence into the ecological security evaluation of cultivated land. Research methods of normal cloud model,entropy weighting method,empirical research method are used in this paper. Based on the Matlab7. 1 software platform,the PSR-EES framework system for the ecological security diagnosis of cultivated land in Jilin Province was constructed. The normal cloud model was used to comprehensively diagnose the ecological security status of cultivated land in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that:( 1) During the research period,the ecological security status of cultivated land in Jilin Province experienced the evolution process of "critical safety-safety-critical safety-safety",and the overall situation showed a good trend;( 2) As for the evolution of single index,most of the indicators in the state layer and response layer have obvious optimization trends,while the pressure layer indicators deteriorate rapidly. The normal cloud model realizes the uncertainty mapping of the evaluation index to the ecological security level of cultivated land,taking into account the evaluation index and evaluation results. The randomness and ambiguity of existence make the evaluation results more objective and applicable to the evaluation of cultivated land ecological security. The conclusions of the study has revealed the evolution mechanism of cultivated land ecological security in Jilin Province and has proposed optimization strategies.
引文
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[9]张冰洁,宋戈.松嫩高平原黑土区典型地域耕地生态安全评价及驱动力分析——以黑龙江省绥化市为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(3):215-220.
[10]宋戈,崔晓伟,雷国平,等.松嫩平原北部典型地域耕地利用安全评价研究——以齐齐哈尔市为例[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(5):267-270.
[11]赵宏波,马延吉.东北粮食主产区耕地生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子——以吉林省为例[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(2):515-524.
[12]杨俊,宋振江,李争.基于PSR模型的耕地生态安全评价——以长江中下游粮食主产区为例[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):301-307.
[13]宋振江,杨俊,李争.长江中下游粮食主产区耕地生态安全评价——基于省级面板数据[J].江苏农业科学,2017,45(20):290-294.
[14]聂艳,彭雅婷,于婧,等.基于量子遗传投影寻踪模型的湖北省耕地生态安全评价[J].经济地理,2015,35(11):172-178.
[15]王连超,赵鹏飞. 2001—2013年河南省耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子分析[J].安徽农业科学,2016,44(21):192-195.
[16]张秋霞,张合兵,刘文锴,等.新郑市耕地生态安全动态预警研究[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):256-264.
[17]张锐,刘友兆.我国耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(7):945-951.
[18]李根,杨庆媛,马寅华,等.基于熵值法的中国省域耕地生态安全评价[J].江苏农业科学,2017,45(9):223-228.
[19]裴巍,付强,刘东,等.基于改进投影寻踪模型黑龙江省土地资源生态安全评价[J].东北农业大学学报,2016,47(7):92-100.
[20]张松男,雷国平.基于E-E-S协同模型的土地生态安全模糊物元评价——以哈尔滨市为例[J].国土资源情报,2012(11):51-56.
[21]刘艳芳,明立彩,孔雪松.基于PSR模型与物元模型的土地生态安全评价——以湖北省大冶市为例[J].江苏农业科学,2017,45(5):271-277.
[22]刘亚男,李淑杰,黄烁秋.基于PSR和改进熵值法的县域耕地生态安全评价研究[J].江西农业学报,2017,29(8):114-118.
[23]徐辉,雷国平,崔登攀,等.耕地生态安全评价研究——以黑龙江省宁安市为例[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(6):180-184.
[24]崔明哲,杨凤海,李佳.基于组合赋权法的哈尔滨市耕地生态安全评价[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(6):184-187.
[25]张祥义,赵文廷,许皞. 1991—2010年河北省耕地资源的安全问题及对策[J].贵州农业科学,2013,41(10):180-182.
[26]王燕辉,陈卓,曹禺,等.河北省近20年耕地生态安全动态变化及阻力分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):194-199.
[27]郑华伟,张锐,孟展,等.基于PSR模型与集对分析的耕地生态安全诊断[J].中国土地科学,2015,29(12):42-50.
[28]李昊,南灵,李世平.基于面板数据聚类分析的土地生态安全评价研究——以陕西省为例[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(6):136-141.
[29]范胜龙,杨玉珍,陈训争,等.基于PSR和无偏GM(1,1)模型的福建省耕地生态安全评价与预测[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(9):19-27.
[30]李洁,赵锐锋,梁丹,等.兰州市城市土地生态安全评价与时空动态研究[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(2):151-157.
[31]高明美,孙涛,赵天燕,等.正态云模型在皖江地区土地生态安全评价中的应用[J].湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2015,41(2):196-201.
[32]卓凤莉.基于熵权系数和集对分析法的土地生态安全评价——以河北省为例[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(6):111-114.
[33]刘蕾,姜灵彦,高军侠.基于P-S-R模型的土地生态安全物元评价——以河南省为例[J].地域研究与开发,2011,30(4):117-121.
[34]袁磊,雷国平,张小虎.资源型城市土地生态安全评价——以大庆市为例[J].地域研究与开发,2009,28(6):80-85.
[35]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性.中国工程科学,2004(8):28-34.
[36]陈立忠.建设生态省:吉林人的新目标吉林省人民代表大会常务委员会关于进行生态省建设的决定[J].吉林人大,2002(1):4-5.
[37]赵凤琴.吉林西部土地生态环境安全研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2005.
[38]谢忠雷,王筱涵,李娜,等.吉林省耕地土壤重金属污染研究现状及展望[J].吉林农业大学学报,2018,40(4):457-462.
[39]卞凤鸣,刘彦彤,赵玲.吉林省土地利用空间均衡度评价研究[J].中国土地科学,2015,29(12):74-80.
[40]刘宝涛,郄瑞卿,王冬艳,等.基于灰色关联模型的吉林省土地利用系统健康诊断[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(10):9-17.
[41]刘宝涛,王冬艳,刘惠清.基于DPSIR模型与TOPSIS算法的吉林省土地利用系统健康诊断[J].吉林农业大学学报,2017,39(1):74-81.
[42]付晓,高吉喜,王雪军,等.基于RS/GIS的吉林省土地利用生态评价与预测[J].生态经济,2009(8):33-35.
[2]吴大放,刘艳艳,刘毅华,等.耕地生态安全评价研究展望[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(3):257-267.
[3] MYERS N. Environment and Security[J]. Foreign Policy,1989,74(1):23-41.
[4] BARNETT J,MATTHEW R A,O’BRIEN K. Global Environmental Change and Human Security[J]. Annual Review of Environment&Resources,2013,38(2):373-391.
[5] HERRMANN S,DABBERT S,RAUMER S V. Threshold Values for Nature Protection Areas as Indicators for Bio-diversity-A Regional Evaluation of Economic and Ecological Consequences[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2003,98(1/2/3):493-506.
[6] RASUL G,THAPA G B. Sustainability Analysis of Ecological and Conventional Agricultural Systems in Bangladesh.[J]. World Development,2003,31(10):1721-1741.
[7] FABER J H,WENSEM J V. Elaborations on the Use of the Ecosystem Services Concept for Application in Ecological Risk Assessment for Soils[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2012,415:3-8.
[8]贾书楠,孙睿,夏显力,等.西安市耕地生态安全测度及影响因素分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(3):164-169.
[9]张冰洁,宋戈.松嫩高平原黑土区典型地域耕地生态安全评价及驱动力分析——以黑龙江省绥化市为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(3):215-220.
[10]宋戈,崔晓伟,雷国平,等.松嫩平原北部典型地域耕地利用安全评价研究——以齐齐哈尔市为例[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(5):267-270.
[11]赵宏波,马延吉.东北粮食主产区耕地生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子——以吉林省为例[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(2):515-524.
[12]杨俊,宋振江,李争.基于PSR模型的耕地生态安全评价——以长江中下游粮食主产区为例[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):301-307.
[13]宋振江,杨俊,李争.长江中下游粮食主产区耕地生态安全评价——基于省级面板数据[J].江苏农业科学,2017,45(20):290-294.
[14]聂艳,彭雅婷,于婧,等.基于量子遗传投影寻踪模型的湖北省耕地生态安全评价[J].经济地理,2015,35(11):172-178.
[15]王连超,赵鹏飞. 2001—2013年河南省耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子分析[J].安徽农业科学,2016,44(21):192-195.
[16]张秋霞,张合兵,刘文锴,等.新郑市耕地生态安全动态预警研究[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):256-264.
[17]张锐,刘友兆.我国耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(7):945-951.
[18]李根,杨庆媛,马寅华,等.基于熵值法的中国省域耕地生态安全评价[J].江苏农业科学,2017,45(9):223-228.
[19]裴巍,付强,刘东,等.基于改进投影寻踪模型黑龙江省土地资源生态安全评价[J].东北农业大学学报,2016,47(7):92-100.
[20]张松男,雷国平.基于E-E-S协同模型的土地生态安全模糊物元评价——以哈尔滨市为例[J].国土资源情报,2012(11):51-56.
[21]刘艳芳,明立彩,孔雪松.基于PSR模型与物元模型的土地生态安全评价——以湖北省大冶市为例[J].江苏农业科学,2017,45(5):271-277.
[22]刘亚男,李淑杰,黄烁秋.基于PSR和改进熵值法的县域耕地生态安全评价研究[J].江西农业学报,2017,29(8):114-118.
[23]徐辉,雷国平,崔登攀,等.耕地生态安全评价研究——以黑龙江省宁安市为例[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(6):180-184.
[24]崔明哲,杨凤海,李佳.基于组合赋权法的哈尔滨市耕地生态安全评价[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(6):184-187.
[25]张祥义,赵文廷,许皞. 1991—2010年河北省耕地资源的安全问题及对策[J].贵州农业科学,2013,41(10):180-182.
[26]王燕辉,陈卓,曹禺,等.河北省近20年耕地生态安全动态变化及阻力分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):194-199.
[27]郑华伟,张锐,孟展,等.基于PSR模型与集对分析的耕地生态安全诊断[J].中国土地科学,2015,29(12):42-50.
[28]李昊,南灵,李世平.基于面板数据聚类分析的土地生态安全评价研究——以陕西省为例[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(6):136-141.
[29]范胜龙,杨玉珍,陈训争,等.基于PSR和无偏GM(1,1)模型的福建省耕地生态安全评价与预测[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(9):19-27.
[30]李洁,赵锐锋,梁丹,等.兰州市城市土地生态安全评价与时空动态研究[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(2):151-157.
[31]高明美,孙涛,赵天燕,等.正态云模型在皖江地区土地生态安全评价中的应用[J].湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2015,41(2):196-201.
[32]卓凤莉.基于熵权系数和集对分析法的土地生态安全评价——以河北省为例[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(6):111-114.
[33]刘蕾,姜灵彦,高军侠.基于P-S-R模型的土地生态安全物元评价——以河南省为例[J].地域研究与开发,2011,30(4):117-121.
[34]袁磊,雷国平,张小虎.资源型城市土地生态安全评价——以大庆市为例[J].地域研究与开发,2009,28(6):80-85.
[35]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性.中国工程科学,2004(8):28-34.
[36]陈立忠.建设生态省:吉林人的新目标吉林省人民代表大会常务委员会关于进行生态省建设的决定[J].吉林人大,2002(1):4-5.
[37]赵凤琴.吉林西部土地生态环境安全研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2005.
[38]谢忠雷,王筱涵,李娜,等.吉林省耕地土壤重金属污染研究现状及展望[J].吉林农业大学学报,2018,40(4):457-462.
[39]卞凤鸣,刘彦彤,赵玲.吉林省土地利用空间均衡度评价研究[J].中国土地科学,2015,29(12):74-80.
[40]刘宝涛,郄瑞卿,王冬艳,等.基于灰色关联模型的吉林省土地利用系统健康诊断[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(10):9-17.
[41]刘宝涛,王冬艳,刘惠清.基于DPSIR模型与TOPSIS算法的吉林省土地利用系统健康诊断[J].吉林农业大学学报,2017,39(1):74-81.
[42]付晓,高吉喜,王雪军,等.基于RS/GIS的吉林省土地利用生态评价与预测[J].生态经济,2009(8):33-35.
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