黄河兰州段突发水污染事故级别预测
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摘要
突发水污染事故威胁人类健康,破坏生态环境。为了降低黄河兰州段突发水污染事故的损失,对突发水污染事故进行级别预测。采用PSR模型建立评价指标体系,通过主客观结合的AHP-熵权法确定各指标权重,运用和谐度方程(HDE)综合评价的方法,根据兰州段突发水污染事故评价指标数据,确定突发水污染事故级别。结果表明:黄河兰州段突发水污染事故和谐度为-0.078,属于重大事故级别(Ⅱ级),符合实际情况。黄河沿岸企业类型、水质类别、事故应急处理机制分别为压力、状态、响应指标中权重最大的影响因素,应重点关注其对黄河水环境的影响,从而全面把控黄河水环境。
Sudden water pollution accidents threaten human health and destroy the ecological environment. In order to reduce the huge losses caused by sudden water pollution accidents in Lanzhou section of the Yellow River, it predicted the levels of sudden water pollution accidents. The PSR model was used to establish the evaluation index system, the weight of each index was determined by the AHP-Entropy weight method combining subjective and objective, and the level of sudden water pollution accident was determined according to the evaluation index data of sudden water pollution accident in Lanzhou section by the comprehensive evaluation method of harmony degree equation(HDE).The results show that the harmony degree of sudden water pollution accidents in the Lanzhou section of the Yellow River is-0.078, which is a major accident level(Level Ⅱ), which is in line with the actual situation. The type of enterprises along the Yellow River, the water quality of the Yellow River and the emergency response mechanism are the most influential factors in the stress, status, and response indicators. The impact on the Yellow River water environment should be focused on, so as to comprehensively control the Yellow River water environment.
Sudden water pollution accidents threaten human health and destroy the ecological environment. In order to reduce the huge losses caused by sudden water pollution accidents in Lanzhou section of the Yellow River, it predicted the levels of sudden water pollution accidents. The PSR model was used to establish the evaluation index system, the weight of each index was determined by the AHP-Entropy weight method combining subjective and objective, and the level of sudden water pollution accident was determined according to the evaluation index data of sudden water pollution accident in Lanzhou section by the comprehensive evaluation method of harmony degree equation(HDE).The results show that the harmony degree of sudden water pollution accidents in the Lanzhou section of the Yellow River is-0.078, which is a major accident level(Level Ⅱ), which is in line with the actual situation. The type of enterprises along the Yellow River, the water quality of the Yellow River and the emergency response mechanism are the most influential factors in the stress, status, and response indicators. The impact on the Yellow River water environment should be focused on, so as to comprehensively control the Yellow River water environment.
引文
[1] 靳春玲,王运鑫,贡力.基于模糊层次评价法的黄河兰州段突发水污染风险评价[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(1):363-368.
[2] 靳春玲,王运鑫,贡力.突发水污染风险的马尔科夫链贝叶斯网络预测[J].人民黄河,2018,40(4):65-68,95.
[3] 练继建,孙萧仲,马超,等.水库突发水污染事件风险评价及应急调度方案研究[J].天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版),2017,50(10):1005-1010.
[4] 赵然杭,彭弢,王好芳,等.南水北调东线山东段干渠突发水质污染事故快速预测[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(8):93-99.
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[8] 李二平,尤宏,刘宝玲,等.跨界水污染事故危害实时判定方法的建立[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(2):257-260.
[9] 吕龙龙,李新宝,蒋晓辉,等.基于PSR模型的刁口河流路生态完整性评价[J].人民黄河,2014,36(4):79-81.
[10] 刘大海,宫伟,邢文秀,等.基于AHP-熵权法的海岛海岸带脆弱性评价指标权重综合确定方法[J].海洋环境科学,2015,34(3):462-467.
[11] 尹鹏,杨仁树,丁日佳,等.基于熵权法的房地产项目建筑质量评价[J].技术经济与管理研究,2013(3):3-7.
[12] 左其亭.和谐论的数学描述方法及应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2009,7(4):129-133.
[13] 左其亭,韩春辉,马军霞,等.和谐度方程(HDE)评价方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(12):3281-3288.
[14] ZUO Q T,ZHAO H,MAO C C,et al.Quantitative Analysis of Hunman-Water Relationships and Harmony-Based Regulation in the Tarim River Basin [J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2015,20(8):1-11.
[15] 左其亭,庞莹莹.基于和谐论的水污染物总量控制问题研究[J].水利水电科技进展,2011,31(3):1-5,12.
[16] 左其亭,马军霞,陶杰.现代水资源管理新思想及和谐论理念[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2214-2220.
[17] 梁士奎,左其亭.基于人水和谐和“三条红线”的水资源配置研究[J].水利水电技术,2013,44(7):1-4.
[18] 马军霞.水质评价的和谐度方程(HDE)评价方法[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(2):11-14.
[19] 左其亭.和谐论:理论-方法-应用[M].2版.北京:科学出版社,2016:38-84.
[2] 靳春玲,王运鑫,贡力.突发水污染风险的马尔科夫链贝叶斯网络预测[J].人民黄河,2018,40(4):65-68,95.
[3] 练继建,孙萧仲,马超,等.水库突发水污染事件风险评价及应急调度方案研究[J].天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版),2017,50(10):1005-1010.
[4] 赵然杭,彭弢,王好芳,等.南水北调东线山东段干渠突发水质污染事故快速预测[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(8):93-99.
[5] HUANG L,WAN W B,LI F Y,et al.A Two-Scale System to Identify Environmental Risk of Chemical Industry Clusters[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2011,186(1):247-255.
[6] HOU D,GE X,HUANG P,et al.A Real-Time,Dynamic Early-Warning Model Based on Uncertainty Analysis and Risk Assessment for Sudden Water Pollution Accidents[J].Environmental Science & Pollution Research,2014,21(14):8878.
[7] 林长喜.跨界重大水污染事故风险源识别技术体系的研究与应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2009:5-16.
[8] 李二平,尤宏,刘宝玲,等.跨界水污染事故危害实时判定方法的建立[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(2):257-260.
[9] 吕龙龙,李新宝,蒋晓辉,等.基于PSR模型的刁口河流路生态完整性评价[J].人民黄河,2014,36(4):79-81.
[10] 刘大海,宫伟,邢文秀,等.基于AHP-熵权法的海岛海岸带脆弱性评价指标权重综合确定方法[J].海洋环境科学,2015,34(3):462-467.
[11] 尹鹏,杨仁树,丁日佳,等.基于熵权法的房地产项目建筑质量评价[J].技术经济与管理研究,2013(3):3-7.
[12] 左其亭.和谐论的数学描述方法及应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2009,7(4):129-133.
[13] 左其亭,韩春辉,马军霞,等.和谐度方程(HDE)评价方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(12):3281-3288.
[14] ZUO Q T,ZHAO H,MAO C C,et al.Quantitative Analysis of Hunman-Water Relationships and Harmony-Based Regulation in the Tarim River Basin [J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2015,20(8):1-11.
[15] 左其亭,庞莹莹.基于和谐论的水污染物总量控制问题研究[J].水利水电科技进展,2011,31(3):1-5,12.
[16] 左其亭,马军霞,陶杰.现代水资源管理新思想及和谐论理念[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2214-2220.
[17] 梁士奎,左其亭.基于人水和谐和“三条红线”的水资源配置研究[J].水利水电技术,2013,44(7):1-4.
[18] 马军霞.水质评价的和谐度方程(HDE)评价方法[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(2):11-14.
[19] 左其亭.和谐论:理论-方法-应用[M].2版.北京:科学出版社,2016:38-84.
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