我国劳动力集聚红利:区际异质性与区间辨识
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摘要
对中国劳动力集聚经济增长效应定量测算,研究发现:2000—2015年期间,中国劳动力集聚红利在经济增长中的贡献率达到14. 05%。其中,劳动力集聚度最适宜地区包括北京、天津等。随后进一步纳入地区异质性视角并发现,各地区的劳动力集聚对其经济的影响并非一致,适宜的集聚区间也不相同,其中地区经济实力是影响其劳动力集聚经济增长效应的关键因素,经济发达地区的劳动力集聚红利期更长,能够承受的劳动力集聚上限更高。目前,仅就经济效应来看,上海仍然具有继续吸纳劳动力的空间和能力。
The article quantitatively estimates the economic growth effect of labor agglomeration in China,and the results show that during the period from 2000 to 2015,the contribution rate of China's labor agglomeration bonus in economic growth has reached 14. 05%. Among them,the most suitable areas for labor agglomeration include Beijing,and Tianjin etc. Then regional heterogeneity is put into the research,and the result shows that the impact of labor agglomeration on economic growth varies in different places,and the suitable agglomeration zones in each region are different. Among the variables,economic strength is a key factor influencing the impact of regional labor agglomeration on economic growth. Economically developed regions have longer periods of labor agglomeration bonus and a higher upper limit of labor agglomeration. At present,from the perspective of economic effect,Shanghai still has the space and capacity to absorb labor.
The article quantitatively estimates the economic growth effect of labor agglomeration in China,and the results show that during the period from 2000 to 2015,the contribution rate of China's labor agglomeration bonus in economic growth has reached 14. 05%. Among them,the most suitable areas for labor agglomeration include Beijing,and Tianjin etc. Then regional heterogeneity is put into the research,and the result shows that the impact of labor agglomeration on economic growth varies in different places,and the suitable agglomeration zones in each region are different. Among the variables,economic strength is a key factor influencing the impact of regional labor agglomeration on economic growth. Economically developed regions have longer periods of labor agglomeration bonus and a higher upper limit of labor agglomeration. At present,from the perspective of economic effect,Shanghai still has the space and capacity to absorb labor.
引文
[1]田雪原.人口城市化转变与当前政策建议[J].中国国情国力,2012,(11):6-9.
[2]Williamson J G.Regional Inequality and the Process of National Development:A Description of the Patterns[J].Economic Development&Cultural Change,1965,13(4):1-84.
[3]Ciccone A,Hall R E.Productivity and Density of Economic Activity[J].American Economic Review,1993,86(e-93-6).
[4]Ciccone A.Agglomeration Effects in Europe[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,1998,46(2):213-227.
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[6]Braunerhjelm P,Borgman B.Agglomeration,Diversity and Regional Growth[R].Working Paper,2006.
[7]Henderson V.The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth:The So-What Question[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2003,8(1):47-71.
[8]Baldwin R,Martin P.Agglomeration and Regional Growth[J].Handbook of Regional&Urban Economics,2004,4(4):2671-2711.
[9]Brülhart M,Sbergami F.Agglomeration and Growth:Cross-Country Evidence[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2009,65(1):48-63.
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[16]曾永明,张利国.新经济地理学框架下人口分布对经济增长的影响效应---全球126个国家空间面板数据的证据:1992-2012[J].经济地理,2017,37(10):17-26.
[17]王智勇.人口集聚与区域经济增长---对威廉姆森假说的一个检验[J].南京社会科学,2018,(3):60-69.
[18]杨东亮,任浩锋.中国人口集聚对区域经济发展的影响研究[J].人口学刊,2018,40(3):30-41.
[19]陈乐,李郇,姚尧,等.人口集聚对中国城市经济增长的影响分析[J].地理学报,2018,73(6):1107-1120.
[20]王智初.中国人口集聚的经济增长效应研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2018.
[21]马歇尔.经济学原理(上下卷)[M].北京:商务印书馆,1981.
[22]王小鲁,夏小林.优化城市规模推动经济增长[J].经济研究,1999,(9):22-29.
[23]Redding S,Venables A J.Economic Geography and International Inequality[J].Journal of International E-conomics,2004,62(1):53-82.
[24]王小鲁.中国城市化路径与城市规模的经济学分析[J].经济研究,2010,(10):20-32.
[25]陈得文.要素集聚与区域经济增长效应研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2012.
[26]李平,许家云.国际智力回流的技术扩散效应研究---基于中国地区差异及门槛回归的实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2011,10(3):935-964.
(1)“劳动力集聚红利”即是指某一地区劳动力要素适度集聚,从而获得集聚净效益,为经济发展创造十分有利的条件。
(1)S1(γ)=e(γ)’e(γ)
(2)F=(S0-S1(γ)Λ)/σ2Λ
(3)LR=(S1(γ)-S1(γ)Λ)/σ2Λ
[2]Williamson J G.Regional Inequality and the Process of National Development:A Description of the Patterns[J].Economic Development&Cultural Change,1965,13(4):1-84.
[3]Ciccone A,Hall R E.Productivity and Density of Economic Activity[J].American Economic Review,1993,86(e-93-6).
[4]Ciccone A.Agglomeration Effects in Europe[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,1998,46(2):213-227.
[5]Martin P,Ottaviano G I P.Growth and Agglomeration[J].International Economic Review,2001,42(4):947-968.
[6]Braunerhjelm P,Borgman B.Agglomeration,Diversity and Regional Growth[R].Working Paper,2006.
[7]Henderson V.The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth:The So-What Question[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2003,8(1):47-71.
[8]Baldwin R,Martin P.Agglomeration and Regional Growth[J].Handbook of Regional&Urban Economics,2004,4(4):2671-2711.
[9]Brülhart M,Sbergami F.Agglomeration and Growth:Cross-Country Evidence[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2009,65(1):48-63.
[10]Futagami K,Ohkusa Y.The Quality Ladder and Product Variety:Larger Economies May Not Grow Faster[J].Japanese Economic Review,2003,54(3):336-351.
[11]范剑勇.产业集聚与地区间劳动生产率差异[J].经济研究,2006,(11):72-81.
[12]陈良文,杨开忠,沈体雁,等.经济集聚密度与劳动生产率差异---基于北京市微观数据的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2009,(1):99-114.
[13]刘修岩,殷醒民.空间外部性与地区工资差异:基于动态面板数据的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2009,(1):77-98.
[14]孙浦阳,武力超,张伯伟.空间集聚是否总能促进经济增长:不同假定条件下的思考[J].世界经济,2011,(10):3-20.
[15]刘修岩,邵军,薛玉立.集聚与地区经济增长:基于中国地级城市数据的再检验[J].南开经济研究,2012,(3):52-64.
[16]曾永明,张利国.新经济地理学框架下人口分布对经济增长的影响效应---全球126个国家空间面板数据的证据:1992-2012[J].经济地理,2017,37(10):17-26.
[17]王智勇.人口集聚与区域经济增长---对威廉姆森假说的一个检验[J].南京社会科学,2018,(3):60-69.
[18]杨东亮,任浩锋.中国人口集聚对区域经济发展的影响研究[J].人口学刊,2018,40(3):30-41.
[19]陈乐,李郇,姚尧,等.人口集聚对中国城市经济增长的影响分析[J].地理学报,2018,73(6):1107-1120.
[20]王智初.中国人口集聚的经济增长效应研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2018.
[21]马歇尔.经济学原理(上下卷)[M].北京:商务印书馆,1981.
[22]王小鲁,夏小林.优化城市规模推动经济增长[J].经济研究,1999,(9):22-29.
[23]Redding S,Venables A J.Economic Geography and International Inequality[J].Journal of International E-conomics,2004,62(1):53-82.
[24]王小鲁.中国城市化路径与城市规模的经济学分析[J].经济研究,2010,(10):20-32.
[25]陈得文.要素集聚与区域经济增长效应研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2012.
[26]李平,许家云.国际智力回流的技术扩散效应研究---基于中国地区差异及门槛回归的实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2011,10(3):935-964.
(1)“劳动力集聚红利”即是指某一地区劳动力要素适度集聚,从而获得集聚净效益,为经济发展创造十分有利的条件。
(1)S1(γ)=e(γ)’e(γ)
(2)F=(S0-S1(γ)Λ)/σ2Λ
(3)LR=(S1(γ)-S1(γ)Λ)/σ2Λ
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