基于乘客选择行为的高速铁路动态联合定价策略研究
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摘要
在铁路客票定价改革的背景下,以北京—上海高铁和动车组为研究对象,基于第三代前景理论、Logit模型效用函数、随机动态规划为理论基础,建立基于乘客出行选择行为的动态定价策略模型。模型以铁路公司整体收益最大为目标函数,依据最大凹向包络理论等理论方法求解模型。选取京沪线部分线路作为实际算例,以复兴号、和谐号、动车组、航空运输作为运输方式集合,铁路二等座和航空经济舱作为价格集合。算例结果表明,通过该模型的动态定价策略,铁路部门的营业收入和上座率均提高,验证了该模型在我国铁路客票动态定价的可行性。
In the context of the reform of railway ticket pricing, by taking Beijing-Shanghai railway line as the research route, and the high-speed rail and EMU as the research object, this paper used the third-generation prospect theory, Logit model utility function and income management as the theoretical basis to establish a dynamic pricing strategy model based on passenger travel choice behavior. The model took the maximum benefit of the railway company as the objective function, and was solved according to the theoretical method of the maximum concave envelope theory. This paper chose the Beijing-Shanghai line as an example, with Fuxing bullet train, Hexie bullet train, EMU and air transport as the transportation mode set, and the second class seats of high-speed rail and economy class seats of aircraft as the price set. The results of the example show that the revenue and attendance rate of the railway sector are improved by the dynamic pricing strategy of the model, which verifies the feasibility of the model in dynamic pricing of railway tickets in China.
In the context of the reform of railway ticket pricing, by taking Beijing-Shanghai railway line as the research route, and the high-speed rail and EMU as the research object, this paper used the third-generation prospect theory, Logit model utility function and income management as the theoretical basis to establish a dynamic pricing strategy model based on passenger travel choice behavior. The model took the maximum benefit of the railway company as the objective function, and was solved according to the theoretical method of the maximum concave envelope theory. This paper chose the Beijing-Shanghai line as an example, with Fuxing bullet train, Hexie bullet train, EMU and air transport as the transportation mode set, and the second class seats of high-speed rail and economy class seats of aircraft as the price set. The results of the example show that the revenue and attendance rate of the railway sector are improved by the dynamic pricing strategy of the model, which verifies the feasibility of the model in dynamic pricing of railway tickets in China.
引文
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[12] 陈小月,杨慧,金惠,等.考虑静态参考价格的动态定价优化策略[J].南京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,16(2):122-128.CHEN Xiaoyue,YANG Hui,JIN Hui,et al.Revenue Management Pricing Model with Static Reference Prices[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Technology(Social Science Edition),2017,16(2):122-128.
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[14] FENG Y Y,XIAO B C.A Continuous-time Yield Management Model with Multiple Prices and Reversible Price Changes[J].Management Science,2000,46(5):644-657.
[2] 张航,赵鹏,乔珂,等.高速铁路旅客出行时间选择Logit模型与分析[J].铁道运输与经济,2017,39(1):55-60.ZHANG Hang,ZHAO Peng,QIAO Ke,et al.Analysis on Logit Model of High-Speed Railway Passengers’ Travel Time Choice[J].Railway Transport and Economy,2017,39(1):55-60.
[3] SCHMIDT U,STARMER C,SUGDEN R.Third-generation Prospect Theory[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,2008,36(3):203-223.
[4] 杨志勇,颜贵云.基于前景理论的动态路径选择模型[J].大连交通大学学报,2010,31(1):53-58.YANG Zhiyong,YAN Guiyun.Model Research of Dynamic Route Choice Based on Prospect Theory[J].Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University,2010,31(1):53-58.
[5] LUCA S D,PACE R D.Evaluation of Risk Perception in Route Choice Experiments:an Application of the Cumulative Prospect Theory[C]// International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems.New York:IEEE,2015.
[6] 罗利,彭际华.竞争环境下的民航客运收益管理动态定价模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,27(11):15-25.LUO Li ,PENG Jihua.A Dynamic Pricing Model for Airline Revenue Management with Competition[J].Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2007,27(11):15-25.
[7] ZHANG D,COOPER W L.Revenue Management for Parallel Flights with Customer-choice Behavior[J].Operations Research,2005,53(3):415-431.
[8] 李博,赵鹏,李云峰,等.基于旅客分类的高速铁路平行车次动态定价研究[J].铁道学报,2017,39(9):10-16.LI Bo,ZHAO Peng,LI Yunfeng,et al.Research on Dynamic Pricing of Parallel Trains of High-speed Railway Based on Passenger Segment[J].Journal of the China Rialway Society,2017,39(9):10-16.
[9] 钱丙益,帅斌,陈崇双,等.基于旅客buy-up行为的铁路客运专线收益管理模型[J].铁道学报,2013,35(8):10-15.QIAN Bingyi,SHUAI Bin,CHEN Chongshuang,et al.Revenue Management Model for Dedicated Passenger Line Based on Passengers’ Buy-up Behavior[J].Journal of the China Rialway Society,2013,35(8):10-15.
[10] KAHNEMAN D A,TVERSKY A N .Prospect Theory:an Analysis of Decision under Risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-292.
[11] BAGLOEE S A,HESHMATI M,TAVANA M,et al.A Logit-based Model for Measuring the Effects of Transportation Infrastructure on Land Value[J].Transportation Planning and Technology,2017,40(2):143-166.
[12] 陈小月,杨慧,金惠,等.考虑静态参考价格的动态定价优化策略[J].南京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,16(2):122-128.CHEN Xiaoyue,YANG Hui,JIN Hui,et al.Revenue Management Pricing Model with Static Reference Prices[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Technology(Social Science Edition),2017,16(2):122-128.
[13] 薛明皋,李楚霖.高科技公司的合理定价[J].工科数学,2002,18(5):18-22.XUE Minggao,LI Chulin.Rational Pricing of High Science and Technology Companies[J].Journal of Mathematics for Technology,2002,18(5):18-22.
[14] FENG Y Y,XIAO B C.A Continuous-time Yield Management Model with Multiple Prices and Reversible Price Changes[J].Management Science,2000,46(5):644-657.
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