成都市大气PM_(2.5)相关的老年人超额死亡风险评估

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英文篇名：Air pollutant PM_(2.5) related excess mortality risk assessment among elderly residents in Chengdu 作者：曾婕 ; 陈剑宇 ; 周亮 ; 蒋先雁 ; 张丽 英文作者：ZENG Jie;CHEN Jian-yu;ZHOU Liang;JIANG Xian-yan;ZHANG Li;Sichuan Procincial Center For Disease Control and Prevention; 关键词：PM2.5 ; 老年人 ; 超额死亡风险 ; 暴露-反应关系 英文关键词：PM2.5;;Elderly;;Excess mortality risk;;Exposure-response effect 中文刊名：江苏预防医学 英文刊名：Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine 机构：四川省疾病预防控制中心; 出版日期：2019-03-30 出版单位：江苏预防医学 年：2019 期：02 基金：国家重点研发计划“我国大气污染的急性健康风险研究”(2016YFC0206500) 语种：中文; 页：35-37+50 页数：4 CN：32-1446/R ISSN：1006-9070 分类号：R12;X513

摘要

目的探讨成都市大气颗粒物(PM_(2.5))污染所致老年人超额死亡风险。方法收集2013—2016年成都市大气颗粒物(PM_(2.5))日平均浓度、死亡个案数据及气象因素,利用广义相加模型,控制时间的长期趋势、气象因素等混杂因素,分析PM_(2.5)浓度对老年人死亡的影响。收集2017年成都市大气颗粒物(PM_(2.5))日平均浓度和死亡个案数据,根据健康损失计算模型,估算2017年成都市PM_(2.5)污染造成的老年人超额死亡人数。结果单污染物模型显示成都市PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m~3,老年人非意外总死亡风险增加0.36%(95%CI:0.25%～0.48%),呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加0.51%(95%CI:0.30%～0.72%),循环系统疾病死亡风险增加0.36%(95%CI:0.16%～0.56%)。多污染物模型中,成都市PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m~3,老年人非意外总死亡风险增加0.33%(95%CI:0.21%～0.45%),呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加0.48%(95%CI:0.26%～0.69%),循环系统疾病死亡风险增加0.29%(95%CI:0.09%～0.49%)。2017年成都市老年人因PM_(2.5)污染造成的非意外、呼吸系统疾病、循环系统疾病超额死亡数分别为1 252、540、409人,占当年老年人同死因别总死亡数的1.95%、2.72%、1.94%。结论 PM_(2.5)污染增加老年人超额死亡风险。
        Objective To explore the excess mortality risk of fine particle matter(PM_(2.5))among the elderly residents in Chengdu.Methods Daily concentrations of PM_(2.5),daily mortality data and weather conditions from 2013 to 2016 in Chengdu were collected.After adjustment of the effects of long-term trend of death,weather conditions and other confounding factors,generalized additive model(GAM)was used to explore the relationship between the level of PM_(2.5) and the elderly mortality.Daily concentrations of PM_(2.5) and daily mortality data of Chengdu in 2017 were collected.Excess mortality of Chengdu in 2017 was estimated by using a Health loss calculation model.Results In single-pollutant model,the risks of all causes(non-accident),respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases of elderly increased by 0.36%(95%CI:0.25%-0.48%),0.51%(95%CI:0.30%-0.72%)and 0.36%(95%CI:0.16%-0.56%),respectively with every rise of 10μg/m~3 in PM_(2.5) concentration.In multi-pollutant model,the risks of all causes(non-accident),respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases of elderly increased by 0.33%(95%CI:0.21%-0.45%),0.48%(95%CI:0.26%-0.69%)and 0.29%(95%CI:0.09%-0.49%),respectively with every rise of 10μg/m~3 in PM_(2.5) concentration.The numbers of elderly excess mortality of all causes(nonaccident),respiratory diseases,circulatory disease were 1 252,540 and 409 in Chengdu,which accounted for 1.95%,2.72% and 1.94% of the same category death in 2017,respectively.Conclusion PM_(2.5) could increase the excess mortality risk among the elderly residents.

引文

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