近56年来新疆策勒县潜在蒸散量变化及影响因子分析
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摘要
【目的】对策勒县潜在蒸散量变化特征进行分析,近而为评价该区域气候干湿状况提供一定的参考依据。【方法】基于策勒县近56年气象数据,依据Penman-Monteith模型计算得出该区1960-2015年逐日潜在蒸散量值(ET_0),并利用一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验及小波分析法分析ET_0的变化趋势、突变年份及周期性特征,最后结合主成分分析法探讨影响研究区潜在蒸散量变化的主要气象因子。【结果】①策勒县年均潜在蒸散量为784.23 mm,且以-4.83 mm/年趋势减小;②四季潜在蒸散量的变化一致,均呈减小趋势,其中春季ET_0的年际变化率为-1.60 mm/年,减少最为明显;③潜在蒸散量在1986年出现了一次明显的减小突变,小波分析发现年ET_0存在9、21、29年的变化周期,第一主周期为29年,其次为21年;④研究区潜在蒸散量的减少主要受平均风速的影响。【结论】近56年来策勒县ET_0的变化整体为波动下降的趋势,而除风速外降水的增加也是其ET_0减小的原因之一。
【Objective】The change characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in Cele county are analyzed, which provides a reference for evaluating the dry and wet climate in the region.【Method】Based on the meteorological data of Cele County in recent 56 years, the daily potential evapotranspiration(ET_0) of the area was calculated according to the Penman-Monteith model, and the variation trend, the mutation year and the periodic characteristics of the ET_0 were analyzed by the linear regression, the Mann-Kendall test and the wavelet analysis.Finally the main influencing of potential evapotranspiration was discussed by principal component analysis.【Result】(i)The average annual potential evapotranspiration was 784.23 mm and the variation showed a significant declining tendency with a changing rate varied at-4.83 mm/a;(ii)The changes of ET_0 during the four seasons were consistent and all showed a decreasing trend.Among them the inter-annual variation rate of ET_0 in spring was-1.6 mm a~(-1), which was the most obvious;(iii)The potential evapotranspiration experienced a significant reduction in 1986. Wavelet analysis revealed that there was a oscillation cycle of 9, 21 and 29 years.(iv)The first main period was 29 years, and the second one was 21 years in the study area;(v)The reduction of potential evapotranspiration in the study area was mainly affected by the average wind speed.【Conclusion】In the past 56 years, the change of ET_0 in Cele county has been a trend of volatility decline, in addition to the wind speed, the increase of precipitation is also one of the reasons for the decrease of ET_0.
【Objective】The change characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in Cele county are analyzed, which provides a reference for evaluating the dry and wet climate in the region.【Method】Based on the meteorological data of Cele County in recent 56 years, the daily potential evapotranspiration(ET_0) of the area was calculated according to the Penman-Monteith model, and the variation trend, the mutation year and the periodic characteristics of the ET_0 were analyzed by the linear regression, the Mann-Kendall test and the wavelet analysis.Finally the main influencing of potential evapotranspiration was discussed by principal component analysis.【Result】(i)The average annual potential evapotranspiration was 784.23 mm and the variation showed a significant declining tendency with a changing rate varied at-4.83 mm/a;(ii)The changes of ET_0 during the four seasons were consistent and all showed a decreasing trend.Among them the inter-annual variation rate of ET_0 in spring was-1.6 mm a~(-1), which was the most obvious;(iii)The potential evapotranspiration experienced a significant reduction in 1986. Wavelet analysis revealed that there was a oscillation cycle of 9, 21 and 29 years.(iv)The first main period was 29 years, and the second one was 21 years in the study area;(v)The reduction of potential evapotranspiration in the study area was mainly affected by the average wind speed.【Conclusion】In the past 56 years, the change of ET_0 in Cele county has been a trend of volatility decline, in addition to the wind speed, the increase of precipitation is also one of the reasons for the decrease of ET_0.
引文
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[15]丁建丽,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,熊黑钢,海米提·依米提.塔里木盆地南缘绿洲荒漠化动态变化遥感研究——以策勒县为例[J].遥感学报,2002(1):56-62,82.
[16]毛东雷,雷加强,周杰,等.新疆策勒不同类型流动和半流动沙丘运移规律[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(3):278-282.
[17]毛东雷,蔡富艳,雷加强,等.新疆策勒沙漠-荒漠-绿洲典型下垫面小气候空间变化分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(4):630-640.
[18]孙小舟,封志明,杨艳昭.西辽河流域1952-2007年参考作物蒸散量的变化趋势[J].资源科学,2009,31(3):479-484.
[19]祝昌汉.再论总辐射的气候学计算方法(二)[J].南京气象学院学报,1982(2):196-206.
[20]张家宝,史玉光.新疆气候变化及短期气候预测研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[21]姚玉龙,刘普幸,卓玛兰草.51a来甘肃省水分盈亏量的时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究, 2014, 31(2): 201-208.
[22]陈子燊,黄强,刘曾美.1962-2007年广东干湿时空变化特征分析[J].水科学进展, 2013, 24(4): 469-476.
[23]Shainberg I, Warrington D,Laflen J M.Soil dispersibility,rain properties and slope interaction in rill formation and erosion[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,1992,56:278-283.
[24]潘雅婧,王仰麟,彭建,等.基于小波与R/S方法的汉江中下游流域降水量时间序列分析[J].地理研究,2012,31(5):811-820.
[25]桑燕芳,王中根,刘昌明.小波分析方法在水文学研究中的应用现状及展望[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(9):1413-1422.
[26]胡雪瑛,武胜利,刘强吉,等.54年来和田地区潜在蒸散量的变化特征及影响因素[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):145-150.
[27]董煜,海米提.依米提.1961-2013年新疆潜在蒸散量变化特征及趋势[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(1):153-161.
[28]张山清.新疆参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征及其成因研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2009.
[29]王鹏涛,延军平,蒋冲,等.华北平原参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其影响因素分析[J].生态学报,2014,34(19):5589-5599.
[2]莫兴国.区域蒸发研究综述[J].水科学进展,1996,7(2):180-185.
[3]罗那那,巴特尔·巴克,吴燕锋.石河子地区参考作物蒸散量变化特征及气候因子的定量分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(5):251-255,260.
[4]Yin Y H,Wu S H,Dai E F. Determining factors in potential evapotranspiration changes over China in the period 1971-2008[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2010,55(29): 3329-3337.
[5]Liu C M,Zhang D.Temporal and spatial change analysis of the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteor ologicalin fluencing factors in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5): 579-588.
[6]张彩霞,花婷,郎丽丽.河西地区潜在蒸散发量变化及其敏感性分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(4):357-362.
[7]曹永强,高璐,袁立婷,等.辽宁省潜在蒸散发量及其敏感性规律分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(9):1422-1429.
[8]杨振常,李玉霖,崔夺,等.半干旱典型沙区1951-2005年主要气象要素及潜在蒸散量的变化趋势研究[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(5):1384-1392.
[9]刘昌明,张丹.中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化特征分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):579-588.
[10]吴霞,王培娟,霍治国,等.1961-2015年中国潜在蒸散时空变化特征与成因[J].资源科学,2017,39(5):964-977.
[11]高歌,陈德亮,任国玉,等.1956-2000年中国潜在蒸散量变化趋势[J].地理研究,2006(3):378-387.
[12]毛东雷,雷加强,王翠,等.新疆策勒县沙漠-绿洲过渡带风沙流结构及输沙粒度特征[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(1):25-33.
[13]庞营军,雷加强,曾凡江,等.新疆维吾尔自治区策勒县绿洲一沙漠过渡带小气候特征[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(5):240-245.
[14]邢文娟,雷加强,王海峰,等.荒漠-绿洲过渡带风况及输沙势分析——以策勒县为例[J].干旱区研究,2008(6):894-898.
[15]丁建丽,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,熊黑钢,海米提·依米提.塔里木盆地南缘绿洲荒漠化动态变化遥感研究——以策勒县为例[J].遥感学报,2002(1):56-62,82.
[16]毛东雷,雷加强,周杰,等.新疆策勒不同类型流动和半流动沙丘运移规律[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(3):278-282.
[17]毛东雷,蔡富艳,雷加强,等.新疆策勒沙漠-荒漠-绿洲典型下垫面小气候空间变化分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(4):630-640.
[18]孙小舟,封志明,杨艳昭.西辽河流域1952-2007年参考作物蒸散量的变化趋势[J].资源科学,2009,31(3):479-484.
[19]祝昌汉.再论总辐射的气候学计算方法(二)[J].南京气象学院学报,1982(2):196-206.
[20]张家宝,史玉光.新疆气候变化及短期气候预测研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[21]姚玉龙,刘普幸,卓玛兰草.51a来甘肃省水分盈亏量的时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究, 2014, 31(2): 201-208.
[22]陈子燊,黄强,刘曾美.1962-2007年广东干湿时空变化特征分析[J].水科学进展, 2013, 24(4): 469-476.
[23]Shainberg I, Warrington D,Laflen J M.Soil dispersibility,rain properties and slope interaction in rill formation and erosion[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,1992,56:278-283.
[24]潘雅婧,王仰麟,彭建,等.基于小波与R/S方法的汉江中下游流域降水量时间序列分析[J].地理研究,2012,31(5):811-820.
[25]桑燕芳,王中根,刘昌明.小波分析方法在水文学研究中的应用现状及展望[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(9):1413-1422.
[26]胡雪瑛,武胜利,刘强吉,等.54年来和田地区潜在蒸散量的变化特征及影响因素[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):145-150.
[27]董煜,海米提.依米提.1961-2013年新疆潜在蒸散量变化特征及趋势[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(1):153-161.
[28]张山清.新疆参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征及其成因研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2009.
[29]王鹏涛,延军平,蒋冲,等.华北平原参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其影响因素分析[J].生态学报,2014,34(19):5589-5599.
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