基于主导因子的湖南省农业灾害风险评价
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摘要
[目的]对农业灾害风险展开评价,为防灾减灾政策的制定和执行提供理论参考,将有利于区域农业的可持续发展。[方法]基于引起湖南省农业灾害风险的旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、病虫害和霜冻5个主导因子,分别分析2009—2016年各主导因子的受灾率和成灾率变化趋势,并通过受灾率、成灾率、灾害脆弱度、灾害经济损失所占比重和因灾缺粮人口所占比重5项指标构建农业灾害风险评价模型,整体评估该省农业灾害风险度,同时采用DEA中的CCR模型进一步对全省抗旱防洪效率进行了探讨。[结果](1)2009—2016年,在湖南省5个农业灾害风险主导因子中,旱灾和水灾是受灾率和成灾率均较高的两种灾害,风雹灾、病虫和霜冻的受灾率和成灾率相对较低。水灾的发生频次最高,风雹灾和病虫害发生频次较低。(2) 2009—2016年,湖南省均有发生不同程度的农业灾害风险。其中,2013年农业灾害风险度最高,为0. 203。2015年,风险度最低,为8. 78。农业灾害脆弱度整体上呈降低趋势,由2009年的61. 00%降低到2016年的54. 16%。(3) 2009—2016年,湖南省抗旱防洪效率值波动较大,在2010、2011和2013年抗旱防洪效率值为1. 00,这些年份湖南省在抗旱防洪方面的投入和产出达到了最佳状态,其他年份抗旱防洪效率均相对较低。(4)研究阶段内,大部分年份存在排灌动力机械台数和农用柴油使用量投入过多的现象。2012、2014—2016年,存在受旱灾未成灾面积产出不足的现象。[结论]该省农业灾害发生较频繁,抗灾能力有待进一步提升,今后应提高对农业灾害的防范意识,减少农业损失。
The evaluation of agricultural disaster risks provides theoretical reference for the formulation and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation policies, which will be conducive to the sustainable development of regional agriculture. Based on the five leading factors of drought,flood,wind,disaster,pest and frost caused by the agricultural disaster risk in the province,the change trend of the disaster-affected rate and disaster-suffering rate of each leading factor from 2009 to 2016 were analyzed,and the disaster rate was adopted.The disaster-affected rate and disaster-suffering rate,disaster vulnerability,the proportion of disaster economic losses and the proportion of the population affected by the disaster-deficient population were used to construct an agricultural disaster risk assessment model,and the overall assessment of the risk of agricultural disasters in the province was got,meanwhile the CCR model in DEA was adopted to explore the province's flood and flood disaster efficiency. The results were showed as follows. Firstly,from 2009 to 2016,among the five agricultural disaster risk leading factors in Hunan province,droughts and floods were two kinds of disasters with high disaster-affected rate and disaster-suffering rate,and the disaster rate and the incidence of wind,disease,pests and frosts was relatively low. The frequency of floods was the highest,and the frequency of windstorms and pests was low. Secondly,from2009 to 2016,there were different levels of agricultural disaster risks in Hunan province. Among them,in 2013,the agricultural disaster risk was the highest,at 0. 203. In 2015,the risk was the lowest at 8. 78. The overall vulnerability of agricultural disasters showed a downward trend,from 61. 00% in 2009 to 54. 16% in 2016.Thirdly,from 2009 to 2016,the drought and flood control efficiency values of Hunan province fluctuated greatly.In 2010,2011 and 2013,the drought and flood control efficiency value was 1. 00. In these years,the input and output of Hunan province in drought and flood control reached the best state. In other years,the drought and flood control efficiency was relatively low. Finally, in the research stage, the number of irrigation and drainage machinery and the use of agricultural diesel were excessive in most years. In 2012,2014-2016,there was a shortage of output due to drought-free areas. The agricultural disasters in this province have occurred frequently,and the ability to resist disasters needs to be further improved. In the future,awareness of agricultural disasters should be raised to reduce agricultural losses.
The evaluation of agricultural disaster risks provides theoretical reference for the formulation and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation policies, which will be conducive to the sustainable development of regional agriculture. Based on the five leading factors of drought,flood,wind,disaster,pest and frost caused by the agricultural disaster risk in the province,the change trend of the disaster-affected rate and disaster-suffering rate of each leading factor from 2009 to 2016 were analyzed,and the disaster rate was adopted.The disaster-affected rate and disaster-suffering rate,disaster vulnerability,the proportion of disaster economic losses and the proportion of the population affected by the disaster-deficient population were used to construct an agricultural disaster risk assessment model,and the overall assessment of the risk of agricultural disasters in the province was got,meanwhile the CCR model in DEA was adopted to explore the province's flood and flood disaster efficiency. The results were showed as follows. Firstly,from 2009 to 2016,among the five agricultural disaster risk leading factors in Hunan province,droughts and floods were two kinds of disasters with high disaster-affected rate and disaster-suffering rate,and the disaster rate and the incidence of wind,disease,pests and frosts was relatively low. The frequency of floods was the highest,and the frequency of windstorms and pests was low. Secondly,from2009 to 2016,there were different levels of agricultural disaster risks in Hunan province. Among them,in 2013,the agricultural disaster risk was the highest,at 0. 203. In 2015,the risk was the lowest at 8. 78. The overall vulnerability of agricultural disasters showed a downward trend,from 61. 00% in 2009 to 54. 16% in 2016.Thirdly,from 2009 to 2016,the drought and flood control efficiency values of Hunan province fluctuated greatly.In 2010,2011 and 2013,the drought and flood control efficiency value was 1. 00. In these years,the input and output of Hunan province in drought and flood control reached the best state. In other years,the drought and flood control efficiency was relatively low. Finally, in the research stage, the number of irrigation and drainage machinery and the use of agricultural diesel were excessive in most years. In 2012,2014-2016,there was a shortage of output due to drought-free areas. The agricultural disasters in this province have occurred frequently,and the ability to resist disasters needs to be further improved. In the future,awareness of agricultural disasters should be raised to reduce agricultural losses.
引文
[1]马晓河．新形势下的粮食安全问题．世界农业，2016(8):238-241.
[2]王玉茹．“十三五”时期我国粮食安全保障策略研究．经济纵横，2016(1):82-86.
[3]邹学荣．我国土地政策面临的矛盾及制度和政策设计．西南民族大学学报(人文社科版)，2014(10):209-215.
[4]樊兴丽，布海东．从促进农村土地流转的视角分析农村劳动力转移．南方农业，2013,7(3):65-67.
[5]张剑明，居晶琳，黎祖贤，等．湖南省农业旱灾的年际变化及重灾年份预测．自然灾害学报，2011(5):105-110.
[6]刘冰冰，曾永年．湖南省严重农业旱情时空变化遥感监测与影响分析．自然灾害学报，2015(6):72-79.
[7]李景保，余果，欧朝敏，等．洞庭湖区农业水旱灾害演变特征及影响因素———60年来的灾情诊断．自然灾害学报，2011(2):74-81.
[8]金志凤，胡波，严甲真，等．浙江省茶叶农业气象灾害风险评价．生态学杂志，2014,33(03):771-777.
[9]李世奎，霍治国，王素艳，等．农业气象灾害风险评估体系及模型研究．自然灾害学报，2004,13(1):77-87.
[10]高晓容，王春乙，张继权，等．1951—2010年华北平原农业气象灾害特征分析及粮食减产风险评估．中国农业气象，2013,34(2):197-203.
[11]邵立瑛，申双和，高磊，等．江苏省水稻生产的综合气象灾害风险评估．科学技术与工程，2015(32):232-239.
[12]高晓容，王春乙，张继权，等．东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价与区划．中国农业科学，2014,47(21):4257-4268.
[13]刘慕华．湖南省农业综合自然灾害对粮食产量影响的实证分析．长沙:湖南科技大学，2015.
[14]唐海明，帅细强，肖小平，等．2010年湖南省农业气象灾害分析及减灾对策．中国农学通报，2012,28(12):284-290.
[15]谢佰承，罗伯良，帅细强，等．湖南洪涝灾害农业风险评估研究．中国农业气象，2009,30(s2):307-309.
[16]张峭，王克．我国农业自然灾害风险评估与区划．中国农业资源与区划，2011,32(3):32-36.
[17]徐蔼婷．德尔菲法的应用及其难点．中国统计，2006(9):57-59.
[18]赵松山，白雪梅．用德尔菲法确定权数的改进方法．统计研究，1994,11(4):46-49.
[19]杨茂，宋伟．基于熵权法的河南粮食生产方式转变指标权重研究．河南农业大学学报，2013,47(5):629-633.
[20]范成方，史建民．基于熵权的粮食种植效益综合评价———以山东省玉米、小麦为例．中国农业资源与区划，2015,36(3):39-47.
[21]李美娟，陈国宏．数据包络分析法(DEA)的研究与应用．中国工程科学，2003,5(6):88-94.
[22]田涛．安徽省农业自然灾害的抗旱防涝效率研究．中国农学通报，2012,28(23):277-281.
[23]陈玉虔，刘慕华．基于数据包络模型的湖南省农业灾害抗旱防涝效率研究．经营管理者，2015(2):171-171'.
[24]王爱平．农业自然灾害对湖南粮食综合生产能力影响研究．长沙:湖南科技大学，2011.
[25]高霞霞，苏伟，谢佰承，等．基于GIS的湖南洪涝灾害农业风险评估．安徽农业科学，2011,39(2):1122-1123.
[2]王玉茹．“十三五”时期我国粮食安全保障策略研究．经济纵横，2016(1):82-86.
[3]邹学荣．我国土地政策面临的矛盾及制度和政策设计．西南民族大学学报(人文社科版)，2014(10):209-215.
[4]樊兴丽，布海东．从促进农村土地流转的视角分析农村劳动力转移．南方农业，2013,7(3):65-67.
[5]张剑明，居晶琳，黎祖贤，等．湖南省农业旱灾的年际变化及重灾年份预测．自然灾害学报，2011(5):105-110.
[6]刘冰冰，曾永年．湖南省严重农业旱情时空变化遥感监测与影响分析．自然灾害学报，2015(6):72-79.
[7]李景保，余果，欧朝敏，等．洞庭湖区农业水旱灾害演变特征及影响因素———60年来的灾情诊断．自然灾害学报，2011(2):74-81.
[8]金志凤，胡波，严甲真，等．浙江省茶叶农业气象灾害风险评价．生态学杂志，2014,33(03):771-777.
[9]李世奎，霍治国，王素艳，等．农业气象灾害风险评估体系及模型研究．自然灾害学报，2004,13(1):77-87.
[10]高晓容，王春乙，张继权，等．1951—2010年华北平原农业气象灾害特征分析及粮食减产风险评估．中国农业气象，2013,34(2):197-203.
[11]邵立瑛，申双和，高磊，等．江苏省水稻生产的综合气象灾害风险评估．科学技术与工程，2015(32):232-239.
[12]高晓容，王春乙，张继权，等．东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价与区划．中国农业科学，2014,47(21):4257-4268.
[13]刘慕华．湖南省农业综合自然灾害对粮食产量影响的实证分析．长沙:湖南科技大学，2015.
[14]唐海明，帅细强，肖小平，等．2010年湖南省农业气象灾害分析及减灾对策．中国农学通报，2012,28(12):284-290.
[15]谢佰承，罗伯良，帅细强，等．湖南洪涝灾害农业风险评估研究．中国农业气象，2009,30(s2):307-309.
[16]张峭，王克．我国农业自然灾害风险评估与区划．中国农业资源与区划，2011,32(3):32-36.
[17]徐蔼婷．德尔菲法的应用及其难点．中国统计，2006(9):57-59.
[18]赵松山，白雪梅．用德尔菲法确定权数的改进方法．统计研究，1994,11(4):46-49.
[19]杨茂，宋伟．基于熵权法的河南粮食生产方式转变指标权重研究．河南农业大学学报，2013,47(5):629-633.
[20]范成方，史建民．基于熵权的粮食种植效益综合评价———以山东省玉米、小麦为例．中国农业资源与区划，2015,36(3):39-47.
[21]李美娟，陈国宏．数据包络分析法(DEA)的研究与应用．中国工程科学，2003,5(6):88-94.
[22]田涛．安徽省农业自然灾害的抗旱防涝效率研究．中国农学通报，2012,28(23):277-281.
[23]陈玉虔，刘慕华．基于数据包络模型的湖南省农业灾害抗旱防涝效率研究．经营管理者，2015(2):171-171'.
[24]王爱平．农业自然灾害对湖南粮食综合生产能力影响研究．长沙:湖南科技大学，2011.
[25]高霞霞，苏伟，谢佰承，等．基于GIS的湖南洪涝灾害农业风险评估．安徽农业科学，2011,39(2):1122-1123.
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