中国海水养殖的净碳汇及其与经济耦合关系
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摘要
中国是世界第一海水养殖大国,努力促进海水养殖业经济、环境协调发展,对落实节能减排要求、共谋全球生态文明建设具有意义。本文通过估算中国海水养殖净碳汇并评价其与海水养殖经济之间的耦合程度,探讨中国海水养殖业环境效益与经济效益的协调共生关系。研究结果表明:2008—2016年全国海水养殖净碳汇保持在43万～49万t,净碳汇与海水养殖经济耦合程度低,除2010年短暂达到增长耦合状态,2009—2014年间其他年份均处于非同步断裂关系,这一阶段中国海水养殖业仍依赖数量型增长,2015—2016年进入非同步负断裂阶段,此时海洋生态文明建设初见成效,但仍缺少环境效益向经济效益转化的市场机制;从省际来看,2008—2016年除冀、琼、津的海水养殖净碳汇为负外,净碳汇贡献最大的省依次为粤、闽、鲁、辽、桂、浙、苏,其中闽、浙、苏海水养殖业净碳汇与经济间主要呈现非同步断裂关系,产业发展仍侧重于经济增长,辽、鲁则呈现非同步负断裂趋势,环境效益提升显著快于经济效益增加,而粤、桂的海水养殖业经济、环境效益则接近平衡。
Based on the estimation of the net mariculture carbon sink and the coupling index between carbon sink and economics, this study discussed the coordination between economic and environmental performance of mariculture in China. By using of both national and provincial data from 2008 to 2016 of China, this study came to the conclusions as following: although the net amount of mariculture carbon sink nationwide remained between 430 to 490 thousand tons per year, the environmental and economic performance got out of sync. Each year during 2009-2014 was in either strongly or weakly decoupling status except for 2010 when it came to increasingly coupling, which means that the growth of mariculture of China still relied on scale expansion in this period. Negatively decoupling relationship appeared from 2015 to 2016, which means that an efficient market mechanism was needed to transfer ecological profit into monetary revenue despite the preliminary achievements of the strategy of Marine Ecological Culture. Results differed between provinces. The net carbon sink kept negative in Hebei, Hainan, and Tianjin from 2009-2016. Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong, and Liaoning have made the greatest contribution to the net carbon sink. The majority of years showed decoupling in Fujian, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, meaning the economic subsystem outbalanced environmental subsystem of mariculture in these provinces.The relationship between net carbon sink and mariculture increase did show a negatively decoupling trend, revealing the environmental subsystem preceded economic subsystem in these two provinces. The mariculture systems were basically balanced in Guangdong and Guangxi.Therefore, the key points of healthy development of marine fishery of China are to accelerate the conversion of the driving power of growth, to build a carbon sink market for marine fishery, and to optimize the allocation of marine spatial and producing resources.
Based on the estimation of the net mariculture carbon sink and the coupling index between carbon sink and economics, this study discussed the coordination between economic and environmental performance of mariculture in China. By using of both national and provincial data from 2008 to 2016 of China, this study came to the conclusions as following: although the net amount of mariculture carbon sink nationwide remained between 430 to 490 thousand tons per year, the environmental and economic performance got out of sync. Each year during 2009-2014 was in either strongly or weakly decoupling status except for 2010 when it came to increasingly coupling, which means that the growth of mariculture of China still relied on scale expansion in this period. Negatively decoupling relationship appeared from 2015 to 2016, which means that an efficient market mechanism was needed to transfer ecological profit into monetary revenue despite the preliminary achievements of the strategy of Marine Ecological Culture. Results differed between provinces. The net carbon sink kept negative in Hebei, Hainan, and Tianjin from 2009-2016. Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong, and Liaoning have made the greatest contribution to the net carbon sink. The majority of years showed decoupling in Fujian, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, meaning the economic subsystem outbalanced environmental subsystem of mariculture in these provinces.The relationship between net carbon sink and mariculture increase did show a negatively decoupling trend, revealing the environmental subsystem preceded economic subsystem in these two provinces. The mariculture systems were basically balanced in Guangdong and Guangxi.Therefore, the key points of healthy development of marine fishery of China are to accelerate the conversion of the driving power of growth, to build a carbon sink market for marine fishery, and to optimize the allocation of marine spatial and producing resources.
引文
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[2]唐启升.碳汇渔业与又好又快发展现代渔业[J].江西水产科技,2011,(2):5-7.[Tang Q S.Carbon sink of fishery and developing modern fishery fast and well[J].Jiangxi Aquatic Science and Technology,2011,(2):5-7.]
[3]Smith S V.Marine macrophytes as a global carbon sink[J].Science,1981,221(2):838-840.
[4]Alvera-Azcarate A,Ferreira J G,Nunes J P.Modelling eutrophication in mesotidal and macrotidal estuaries:The role of intertidal seaweeds[J].Estuarine,Coastal and Shelf Science,2003,57(4):715-724.
[5]Mitra A,Zaman S,Pramanick P,et al.Stored carbon in dominat seaweeds of Indian Sundarbans[J].Tropic Agricultral Science,2014,37(2):263-275.
[6]Landschuetzer P,Gruber N,Bakker D C E,et al.Recent variability of the global ocean carbon sink[J].Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2015,28(9):927-949.
[7]Bakker D C E,Pfeil B,Olsen A,et al.Global data products help assess changes to ocean carbon sink[J].Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union,2013,93(12):125-126.
[8]Dan A S,Moore P J,Queiros A M,et al.Appreciating interconnectivity between habitats is key to blue carbon management[J].Frontiers in Ecology&the Environment,2018,16(2):71-73.
[9]Zhou Y,Yang H,Zhang T,et al.Influence of filtering and biodeposition by the cultured scallop chlamysfarreri on benthic-pelagic coupling in a eutrophic bay in China[J].Marine Ecology Progress,2006,317(8):127-141.
[10]张继红,方建刚,唐启升.中国浅海贝藻养殖对海洋碳循环的贡献[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(3):359-365.[Zhang J H,Fang JG,Tang Q S.The contribution of shellfish and seaweed in China to the carbon recycle of coastal ecosystem[J].Advances in Earth Science,2005,20(3):359-365.]
[11]宋金明,李学刚,袁华茂,等.中国近海生物固碳强度与潜力[J].生态学报,2008,28(2):551-558.[Song J M,Li X G,Yuan H M,et al.Carbon fixed by phytoplankton and cultured algae in China coastal seas[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(2):551-558.]
[12]岳冬冬,王鲁民.基于直接碳汇核算的长三角地区海水贝类养殖发展分析[J].山东农业科学,2012,44(8):133-136.[Yue D D,Wang L M.Development analysis of shellfish aquaculture in the Yangtze River Delta Region based on the principle of direct carbon sinks accounting[J].Shandong Agricultural Sciences,2012,44(8):133-136.]
[13]纪建悦,王萍萍.我国海水养殖碳汇能力测度及其影响因素分解研究[J].海洋环境科学,2015,35(6):871-878.[Ji J Y,Wang PP.Research on China’s mariculture carbon sink capacity and influencing factors[J].Marine Environmental Science,2015,36(6):871-878.]
[14]林光纪.我国发展低碳渔业的经济政策探析[J].中国水产,2010,(9):25-26.[Lin G J.Analysis on economic policies of lowcarbon fishery development of China[J].China Aquatic,2010,(9):25-26.]
[15]唐启升,刘慧.海洋渔业碳汇及其扩增战略[J].中国工程科学,2016,18(3):68-73.[Tang Q S,Liu H.Strategy for carbon sink and its amplification in marine fisheries[J].China Engineering Science,2016,18(3):68-73.]
[16]孙吉亭,赵玉杰.我国碳汇渔业发展模式研究[J].东岳论丛,2011,32(8):150-155.[Sun J T,Zhao Y J.Developing patterns of fishery carbon sink of China[J].Dong Yue Tribune,2011,32(8):150-155.]
[17]邵桂兰,阮文婧.我国碳汇渔业发展对策研究[J].中国渔业经济,2012,30(4):45-52.[Shao G L,Ruan W J.Developing advice of fishery carbon sink of China[J].Fishery Economics of China,2012,30(4):45-52.]
[18]邵桂兰,任肖嫦,李晨.基于B-S期权定价模型的碳汇渔业价值评估[J].中国渔业经济,2017,35(5):76-82.[Shao G L,Ren X C,Li C.Evaluation of carbon sink fishery based on B-S option pricing model[J].Fishery Economics of China,2017,35(5):76-82.]
[19]沈金生,梁瑞芳.海洋牧场蓝色碳汇定价研究[J].资源科学,2018,40(9):1812-1821.[Shen J S,Liang R F.Study on the blue carbon sink pricing of marine ranch[J].Resources Science,2018,40(9):1812-1821.]
[20]于梦璇,田天,马云瑞.浅析碳汇渔业所需的碳交易市场规模[J].海洋开发与管理,2018,35(7):88-93.[Yu M X,Tian T,Ma Y R.On the scale of carbon exchange market needed to develop carbon sink fishery[J].Ocean Development and Management,2018,35(7):88-93.]
[21]王泽宇,卢雪凤,韩增林,等.中国海洋经济增长与资源消耗的脱钩分析及回弹效应分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(9):1658-1669.[Wang Z Y,Lu X F,Han Z L,et al.Decoupling analysis and rebound effect between China’s marine economic growth and resource consumption[J].Resources Science,2017,39(9):1658-1669.]
[22]李晨,迟萍,邵桂兰.我国远洋渔业碳排放与行业经济增长的相应关系研究[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(6):233-237.[Li C,Chi P,Shao G L.Research on the responsive relationship between China’s deep-sea fishery carbon emissions and industry economic growth[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2016,36(6):233-237.]
[23]岳冬冬,王鲁民.中国低碳渔业发展路径与阶段划分研究[J].中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版),2012,(5):15-21.[Yue D D,Wang L M.Development path and stages of low carbon fishery in China[J].Journal of Ocean University of China,2012,(5):15-21.]
[24]田云,张俊飚.中国农业生产净碳效应分异研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1298-1309.[Tian Y,Zhang J B.Regional differentiation research on net carbon effect of agricultural production in China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(8):1298-1309.]
[25]杨果,陈瑶.中国农业源碳汇估算及其与农业经济发展的耦合分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(12):171-176.[Yang G,Chen Y.China’s agriculture carbon sink estimation and its coupling relationship with agricultural economy development[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(12):171-176.]
[26]王劼,朱朝枝.农业碳排放的影响因素分解与脱钩效应的国际比较[J].统计与决策,2018,(11):104-108.[Wang J,Zhu Z Z.Driving factors of agricultural CO2emission and international comparison of decoupling index[J].Statistics and Decision,2018,(11):104-108.]
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