基于模糊隶属度的雷电危险度等级评定
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摘要
利用2013—2017年青海省西宁市测站半径10 km的闪电定位监测数据,选取地域范围一小时内的地闪数目和一小时内的最大雷电流幅值作为雷电危险度因子。确定因子分级的上下限和因子区间划分,计算出单因子雷电危险度等级的隶属度与权重。采用梯形分布函数和模糊统计方法确定雷电危险度因子的隶属度函数,根据隶属度函数得出模糊矩阵,并进行模糊矩阵复合运算,求出雷电危险度综合指数,得出雷电危险度等级。结果表明:根据建立的模糊综合评判方法能够全面、客观、准确地反映一次闪电过程的危险度状况,有效评定雷电危险度等级,评定结果较为客观地反映了雷击事件的实际状况,从而为气象防灾减灾、雷电灾害调查和雷击风险评估等业务提供科学性的决策服务和参考依据。
Assessment of lightning hazard grade is an important part of disaster risk evaluation and disaster management.The establishment of a scientific assessment method of lightning hazard grade can reflect the dangerous condition of a lightning strike event comprehensively,objectively and accurately.It is urgent and important to evaluate and divide the lightning hazard by effective ground method.Based on the monitoring data about ground flicker in Xining area of Qinghai Province,China for 5 years,this paper takes the frequency of ground flicker and the amplitude of lightning current as risk factors to determine the ground flicker frequency and the upper and lower limits of lightning current amplitude of the research data.The membership function of lightning hazard factor is determined by using trapezoid distribution function and fuzzy statistical method.On the basis of determining the weight of each factor,combining the index weight with the factor set,the multilevel assessment of lightning risk is carried out.The paper evaluates the lightning hazard degree of two cases and the results show that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is simple and effective in the research method of lightning hazard grade evaluation,and its evaluation results objectively reflect the actual situation of lightning strike event and the conclusion of the research method is consistent with the results of the accident investigation and lightning disaster investigation.Compared with other methods,this method can accurately give the lightning hazard grade of different lightning current amplitude and different lightning number.
Assessment of lightning hazard grade is an important part of disaster risk evaluation and disaster management.The establishment of a scientific assessment method of lightning hazard grade can reflect the dangerous condition of a lightning strike event comprehensively,objectively and accurately.It is urgent and important to evaluate and divide the lightning hazard by effective ground method.Based on the monitoring data about ground flicker in Xining area of Qinghai Province,China for 5 years,this paper takes the frequency of ground flicker and the amplitude of lightning current as risk factors to determine the ground flicker frequency and the upper and lower limits of lightning current amplitude of the research data.The membership function of lightning hazard factor is determined by using trapezoid distribution function and fuzzy statistical method.On the basis of determining the weight of each factor,combining the index weight with the factor set,the multilevel assessment of lightning risk is carried out.The paper evaluates the lightning hazard degree of two cases and the results show that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is simple and effective in the research method of lightning hazard grade evaluation,and its evaluation results objectively reflect the actual situation of lightning strike event and the conclusion of the research method is consistent with the results of the accident investigation and lightning disaster investigation.Compared with other methods,this method can accurately give the lightning hazard grade of different lightning current amplitude and different lightning number.
引文
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[4] 郭虎,熊亚军,扈海波.北京市雷电灾害灾情综合评估模式[J].灾害学,2008,23(1):14-17.[GUO Hu,XIONG Yajun,HU Haibo.Synthetic assessment model of lightning disaster in Beijing[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2008,23(1):14-17.]
[5] 张雅斌,高菊霞.高原东北侧灾害性雷暴的大气电场特征分析[C]//第26届中国气象学会年会论文集.陕西省防雷中心,2009:2068-2074.[ZHANG Yabin,GAO Juxia.Characteristics analysis of atmospheric electric field during disastrous thunderstorms weather in northeastern Tibet[C]//The proceedings of the 26th annual meeting of China Meteorological Society.Shaanxi Provincial Lightning Protection Center,2009:2068-2074.]
[6] 李家启,秦健,李良福,等.雷电灾害评估及其等级划分[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2010,32(11):140-144.[LI Jiaqi,QIN Jian,LI Liangfu,et al.Evaluation and grade partition of lightning disaster[J].Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition),2010,32(11):140-144.]
[7] 袁湘玲,王振会,肖稳安,等.雷电灾害潜在与现实易损性分析及区划研究——以黑龙江省为例[J].灾害学,2011,26(1):20-25.[YUAN Xiangling,WANG Zhenhui,XIAO Wen’an,et al.A study on the potential and current vulnerability and regionalization for lightning disaster in Heilongjiang Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2011,26(1):20-25.]
[8] 杨伦标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1992:15-69.[YANG Lunbiao,GAO Yingyi.Principle and application of fuzzy mathematics[M].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology Press,1992:15-69.]
[9] TAN K S,LIM W H.Novel initialization scheme for fuzzy C-means algorithm on color image segmentation[J].Applied Soft Computing,2013,13(4):1832-1852.
[10] CHEN J S,PI D C,LIU Z P.An insensitivity fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm based on penalty factor[J].Journal of Software,2013,8(9):2379-2384.
[11] 杨琳,朱阿兴,秦承志,等.运用模糊隶属度进行土壤属性制图的研究——以黑龙江鹤山农场研究区为例[J].土壤学报,2009,46(1):9-15.[YANG Lin,ZHU Axin,QIN Chenzhi,et al.Soil property mapping using fuzzy membership:A case study of a study area in Heshan farm of Heilongjiang Province[J].Acta Pedologica Sinica,2009,46(1):9-15.]
[12] 秦健,覃彬全,陈闯,等.基于模糊综合评价法的雷电灾害易损性区划研究[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,36(7):176-182.[QIN Jian,QIN Binquan,CHEN Chuang,et al.Lightning disaster vulnerability zoning research based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition),2014,36(7):176-182.]
[13] 李俊晓,李朝奎,罗淑华,等.基于AHP模糊综合评价方法的泉州市水资源可持续利用评价[J].水土保持通报,2015,(1):210-214,286.[LI Junxiao,LI Chaokui,LUO Shuhua,et al.Sustainable utilization evaluation of water resources in Quanzhou City based on AHP and fuzzy synthetic judgment[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,(1):210-214,286.]
[14] 窦培谦.城市环境安全模糊综合评价方法研究[J].中国环境管理,2016,(2):89-93.[DOU Peiqian.Research of urban fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for environment security[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2016,(2):89-93.]
[15] 张铁男,李晶蕾.对多级模糊综合评价方法的应用研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2002,23(3):132-135.[ZHANG Tienan,LI Jinglei.Application of multi-step fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2002,23(3):132-135.]
[16] 邹善勇,王淑一,邹皓羽,等.基于熵值赋权法的大连地区雷电危险度可拓学评估[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(6):184-189.[ZOU Shanyong,WANG Shuyi,ZOU Haoyu,et al.Extenics evaluation of lightning risk degree in Dalian region using an entropy weighting method[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2016,32(6):184-189.]
[17] 杜喆,刘三阳,齐小刚.一种新隶属度函数的模糊支持向量机[J].系统仿真学报,2009,21(7):1901-1903.[DU Zhe,LIU Sanyang,QI Xiaogang.Fuzzy support vector machine with new membership function[J].Journal of System Simulation,2009,21(7):1901-1903.]
[18] 王泉伟,刘建磊,杜朋召.模糊综合评价方法在边坡岩体卸荷程度分级中的应用[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(6):89-92.[WANG Quanwei,LIU Jianlei,DU Pengzhao.Application of fuzzy synthesis assessment method in classification of slope rock unloading[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2016,37(6):89-92.]
[19] 曹杰.基于相对隶属度和概率论耦合的水资源紧缺程度评价模型及其应用[J].江苏水利,2017,(11):34-39,43.[CAO Jie.Evaluation model and its application of water resources shortage degree based on relative membership degree and probability theory[J].Jiangsu Water Resources,2017,(11):34-39,43.]
[20] 何荣,王斌.基于层次分析法的矿区建筑物损害程度模糊评价[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2017,36(1):32-37.[HE Rong,WANG Bin.Fuzzy evaluation of damage degree of buildings based on analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science),2017,36(1):32-37.]
[21] 万中,梁文冬,卢宗娟.模糊数的隶属度区间分布函数[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学),2011,25(1):107-112.[WAN Zhong,LIANG Wendong,LU Zongjuan.Study on the membership interval distribution function for fuzzy sets[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Technology(Natural Science),2011,25(1):107-112.]
[22] 郭文兵,刘义新,李小双.采动影响下建筑物损害程度的模糊聚类分析[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2007,24(3):288-292.[GUO Wenbin,LIU Yixin,LI Xiaoshuang.Fuzzy clustering analysis of mining induced damages of buildings[J].Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering,2007,24(3):288-292.]
[23] 王敏,孔尚成,王秀英.青海东部地区雷电灾害易损性分析与区划[J].气象科技,2018,46(2):26-31.[WANG Min,KONG Shangcheng,WANG Xiuying.Vulnerability and regionalization of lightning disasters in eastern Qinghai[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2018,46(2):26-31.]
[24] 袁湘玲,周倩,王振会,等.雷电灾害风险分级方法研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):412-416.[YUAN Xiangling,ZHOU Qian,WANG Zhenhui,et al.A study on the lightning disaster risk grading methods[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(1):412-416.]
[2] 王凤娇,任钟冬,韦良文,等.雷电灾害等级划分及发生潜势指标探讨[J].气象科技,2009,37(6):744-747.[WANG Fengjiao,REN Zhongdong,WEI Liangwen,et al.Grade division and occurrence potential index of lightning disaster[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2009,37(6):744-747.]
[3] 杨超,潘敖大,李娟,等.基于应急综合管理的气象灾害敏感单位等级划分[J].灾害学,2018,33(1):27-31.[YANG Chao,PAN Aoda,LI Juan,et al.Grade division of meteorological disaster sensitive units based on emergency integrated management[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2018,33(1):27-31.]
[4] 郭虎,熊亚军,扈海波.北京市雷电灾害灾情综合评估模式[J].灾害学,2008,23(1):14-17.[GUO Hu,XIONG Yajun,HU Haibo.Synthetic assessment model of lightning disaster in Beijing[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2008,23(1):14-17.]
[5] 张雅斌,高菊霞.高原东北侧灾害性雷暴的大气电场特征分析[C]//第26届中国气象学会年会论文集.陕西省防雷中心,2009:2068-2074.[ZHANG Yabin,GAO Juxia.Characteristics analysis of atmospheric electric field during disastrous thunderstorms weather in northeastern Tibet[C]//The proceedings of the 26th annual meeting of China Meteorological Society.Shaanxi Provincial Lightning Protection Center,2009:2068-2074.]
[6] 李家启,秦健,李良福,等.雷电灾害评估及其等级划分[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2010,32(11):140-144.[LI Jiaqi,QIN Jian,LI Liangfu,et al.Evaluation and grade partition of lightning disaster[J].Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition),2010,32(11):140-144.]
[7] 袁湘玲,王振会,肖稳安,等.雷电灾害潜在与现实易损性分析及区划研究——以黑龙江省为例[J].灾害学,2011,26(1):20-25.[YUAN Xiangling,WANG Zhenhui,XIAO Wen’an,et al.A study on the potential and current vulnerability and regionalization for lightning disaster in Heilongjiang Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2011,26(1):20-25.]
[8] 杨伦标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1992:15-69.[YANG Lunbiao,GAO Yingyi.Principle and application of fuzzy mathematics[M].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology Press,1992:15-69.]
[9] TAN K S,LIM W H.Novel initialization scheme for fuzzy C-means algorithm on color image segmentation[J].Applied Soft Computing,2013,13(4):1832-1852.
[10] CHEN J S,PI D C,LIU Z P.An insensitivity fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm based on penalty factor[J].Journal of Software,2013,8(9):2379-2384.
[11] 杨琳,朱阿兴,秦承志,等.运用模糊隶属度进行土壤属性制图的研究——以黑龙江鹤山农场研究区为例[J].土壤学报,2009,46(1):9-15.[YANG Lin,ZHU Axin,QIN Chenzhi,et al.Soil property mapping using fuzzy membership:A case study of a study area in Heshan farm of Heilongjiang Province[J].Acta Pedologica Sinica,2009,46(1):9-15.]
[12] 秦健,覃彬全,陈闯,等.基于模糊综合评价法的雷电灾害易损性区划研究[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,36(7):176-182.[QIN Jian,QIN Binquan,CHEN Chuang,et al.Lightning disaster vulnerability zoning research based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition),2014,36(7):176-182.]
[13] 李俊晓,李朝奎,罗淑华,等.基于AHP模糊综合评价方法的泉州市水资源可持续利用评价[J].水土保持通报,2015,(1):210-214,286.[LI Junxiao,LI Chaokui,LUO Shuhua,et al.Sustainable utilization evaluation of water resources in Quanzhou City based on AHP and fuzzy synthetic judgment[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,(1):210-214,286.]
[14] 窦培谦.城市环境安全模糊综合评价方法研究[J].中国环境管理,2016,(2):89-93.[DOU Peiqian.Research of urban fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for environment security[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2016,(2):89-93.]
[15] 张铁男,李晶蕾.对多级模糊综合评价方法的应用研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2002,23(3):132-135.[ZHANG Tienan,LI Jinglei.Application of multi-step fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2002,23(3):132-135.]
[16] 邹善勇,王淑一,邹皓羽,等.基于熵值赋权法的大连地区雷电危险度可拓学评估[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(6):184-189.[ZOU Shanyong,WANG Shuyi,ZOU Haoyu,et al.Extenics evaluation of lightning risk degree in Dalian region using an entropy weighting method[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2016,32(6):184-189.]
[17] 杜喆,刘三阳,齐小刚.一种新隶属度函数的模糊支持向量机[J].系统仿真学报,2009,21(7):1901-1903.[DU Zhe,LIU Sanyang,QI Xiaogang.Fuzzy support vector machine with new membership function[J].Journal of System Simulation,2009,21(7):1901-1903.]
[18] 王泉伟,刘建磊,杜朋召.模糊综合评价方法在边坡岩体卸荷程度分级中的应用[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(6):89-92.[WANG Quanwei,LIU Jianlei,DU Pengzhao.Application of fuzzy synthesis assessment method in classification of slope rock unloading[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2016,37(6):89-92.]
[19] 曹杰.基于相对隶属度和概率论耦合的水资源紧缺程度评价模型及其应用[J].江苏水利,2017,(11):34-39,43.[CAO Jie.Evaluation model and its application of water resources shortage degree based on relative membership degree and probability theory[J].Jiangsu Water Resources,2017,(11):34-39,43.]
[20] 何荣,王斌.基于层次分析法的矿区建筑物损害程度模糊评价[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2017,36(1):32-37.[HE Rong,WANG Bin.Fuzzy evaluation of damage degree of buildings based on analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science),2017,36(1):32-37.]
[21] 万中,梁文冬,卢宗娟.模糊数的隶属度区间分布函数[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学),2011,25(1):107-112.[WAN Zhong,LIANG Wendong,LU Zongjuan.Study on the membership interval distribution function for fuzzy sets[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Technology(Natural Science),2011,25(1):107-112.]
[22] 郭文兵,刘义新,李小双.采动影响下建筑物损害程度的模糊聚类分析[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2007,24(3):288-292.[GUO Wenbin,LIU Yixin,LI Xiaoshuang.Fuzzy clustering analysis of mining induced damages of buildings[J].Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering,2007,24(3):288-292.]
[23] 王敏,孔尚成,王秀英.青海东部地区雷电灾害易损性分析与区划[J].气象科技,2018,46(2):26-31.[WANG Min,KONG Shangcheng,WANG Xiuying.Vulnerability and regionalization of lightning disasters in eastern Qinghai[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2018,46(2):26-31.]
[24] 袁湘玲,周倩,王振会,等.雷电灾害风险分级方法研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):412-416.[YUAN Xiangling,ZHOU Qian,WANG Zhenhui,et al.A study on the lightning disaster risk grading methods[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(1):412-416.]
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