基于熵权TOPSIS法的铝土矿海外投资优选
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摘要
中国是世界上最大的铝土矿消费国,消费量占全球的比例长期高于40%,以2016年为例,中国铝土矿消费量占比高达58%,预计未来十年铝土矿消费量仍将继续增长。但我国铝土矿资源先天不足,随着开采程度加深,品质下降严重。因此,如何稳定地获取铝土矿成为急需解决的问题。境外投资是获取资源的重要方式,而要保障投资的成功率,对主要资源国的投资环境进行评价显得至关重要。本文基于熵权TOPSIS法,从经济、政治和法律、资源环境及基础设施四个方面选取了包括政府问责指数、铁路密度、综合税率和铝土矿储量在内的十五个指标组成评价体系,对中国铝土矿境外投资环境进行综合评价。结果表明:我国铝土矿境外投资的优先顺序依次为几内亚、牙买加、澳大利亚、印度、马来西亚、越南、巴西、印度尼西亚、俄罗斯。
China is the world's largest consumer of bauxite.The proportion of consumption in the world has been more than 40%for a long time.Taking 2016 as an example,China's bauxite consumption accounts for58%,and it is expected that bauxite consumption will continue to grow in the next decade.However,China's bauxite resources are inherently insufficient,and as the degree of exploitation deepens,the quality declines seriously.Therefore,how to obtain bauxite stably becomes an urgent problem to be solved.Overseas investment is an important way to gain resources.To ensure the success rate of bauxite investment,it is essential to evaluate the investment environment of different countries.Based on the entropy-weight TOPSIS model,this paper selects the evaluation of fifteen indicators including government accountability index,railway density,comprehensive tax rate and bauxite reserves from four aspects:economic,political and legal,resource environment and infrastructure.The system provides a comprehensive evaluation of the overseas investment environment of China's bauxite.It is concluded that the priority of overseas investment in bauxitein China is Guinea,Jamaica,Australia,India,Malaysia,Vietnam,Brazil,Indonesia and Russia respectively.
China is the world's largest consumer of bauxite.The proportion of consumption in the world has been more than 40%for a long time.Taking 2016 as an example,China's bauxite consumption accounts for58%,and it is expected that bauxite consumption will continue to grow in the next decade.However,China's bauxite resources are inherently insufficient,and as the degree of exploitation deepens,the quality declines seriously.Therefore,how to obtain bauxite stably becomes an urgent problem to be solved.Overseas investment is an important way to gain resources.To ensure the success rate of bauxite investment,it is essential to evaluate the investment environment of different countries.Based on the entropy-weight TOPSIS model,this paper selects the evaluation of fifteen indicators including government accountability index,railway density,comprehensive tax rate and bauxite reserves from four aspects:economic,political and legal,resource environment and infrastructure.The system provides a comprehensive evaluation of the overseas investment environment of China's bauxite.It is concluded that the priority of overseas investment in bauxitein China is Guinea,Jamaica,Australia,India,Malaysia,Vietnam,Brazil,Indonesia and Russia respectively.
引文
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[19]邢佳韵,于汶加,张若然,等.中国在哈萨克斯坦矿业投资区域优选评价研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1076-1085.XING Jiayun,YU Wenjia,ZHANG Ruoran,et al.A structural study of the appraisal index system for optimal mining regions in Kazakhstan[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1076-1085.
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[21]李晓明,王安建.未来20年印度资源需求预测及中国应对策略研究[J].地球学报,2017,38(1):45-53.LI Xiaoming,WANG Anjian.A study of the prediction of resources demand and economy of India and China's coping strategies in the upcoming 20 Years[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2017,38(1):45-53.
[22]朱帅,楚克磊,张艳飞,等.越南矿业及相关产业合作前景[J].中国矿业,2017,26(11):80-84,117.ZHU Shuai,CHU Kelei,ZHANG Yanfei,et al.Analysis on the prospects of Vietnam in mining and related industries[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(11):80-84,117.
[23]魏星.俄罗斯铝工业概述[J].轻金属,2015(10):1-5.WEI Xing.Overview of aluminum industry in Russia[J].Light Metals,2015(10):1-5.
[24]朱妍,霍云波.我国铝土矿资源及海外投资分析[J].中国有色金属,2016(12):38-39.ZHU Yan,HUO Yunbo.Analysis of China's bauxite resources and overseas investment[J].China Nonferrous Metals,2016(12):38-39.
[25]张美丽.中国对外铝矿直接投资的区位选择研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2012.
[2]王贤伟.中国铝土矿资源产品需求预测及对策研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2018.
[3]LITVAK Isiah A,BANTING Peter M.A conceptual framework for international business arrangement[J].Marketing and the New Science of Planning,1968:460-467.
[4]晏恒.金砖国家矿业投资环境研究[D].广州:广东工业大学,2016.
[5]赵琰.赞比亚矿产资源及矿业投资前景分析[J].中国矿业,2007,16(12):12-14.ZHAO Yan.Analysis on mineral resources and the prospect of mining investment in Zambia[J].China Mining Magazine,2007,16(12):12-14.
[6]刘莎,王高尚,陈晨,等.基于层次分析法的全球矿业投资环境分析[J].资源与产业,2010,12(2):116-122.LIU Sha,WANG Gaoshang,CHEN Chen,et al.Study on global mining investment environment based on AHP[J].Resources and Industries,2010,12(2):116-122.
[7]徐曙光,闫卫东,孙春强,等.2016年世界主要国家矿业投资环境评价[J].国土资源情报,2016(12):10-16.XU Shuguang,YAN Weidong,SUN Chunqiang,et al.Evaluation of the mining investment environment of major countries in the world in 2016[J].Land and Resources Information,2016(12):10-16.
[8]尹芳,杨雪菲,江东,等.中东地区油气资源投资风险分析[J].科技导报,2018,36(3):117-122.YIN Fang,YANG Xuefei,JIANG Dong,et al.Risk analysis of oil and gas resources investment in Middle East[J].Science&Technology Review,2018,36(3):117-122.
[9]俞立平,张晓东.基于熵权TOPSIS的地区高校科技竞争力评价研究[J].情报杂志,2013,32(11):181-186.YU Liping,ZHANG Xiaodong.The evaluation study on science and technology competitiveness of regional colleges and universities[J].Journal of Intelligence,2013,32(11):181-186.
[10]曹贤忠,曾刚.基于熵权TOPSIS法的经济技术开发区产业转型升级模式选择研究---以芜湖市为例[J].经济地理,2014,34(4):13-18.CAO Xianzhong,ZENG Gang.The mode of transformation and upgrading based on the methods of entropy weight and TOPSIS in case of Wuhu Economic and Technological Development Zone[J].Economic Geography,2014,34(4):13-18.
[11]杨德平,刘喜华.经济预测与决策技术及MATLAB实现[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2016.
[12]OZERNOY V M.Choosing the“best”multiple criteria decision making method[J].Information,1992,30:159-171.
[13]STEWART T J.A critical survey on the status of multiple criteria decision making theory and practice[J].Omega,1992,20:569-586.
[14]WANG C L,YOON K S.Multiple attribute decision making[M].Berlin:Spring-verlig,1981.
[15]张汉亚.投资环境研究[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2005.
[16]孔淑红,梁明.国际投资学[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,2002.
[17]吴迪,蔡嗣经,董宪伟.海外矿业开发环境评价模型研究及应用[J].矿业研究与开发,2010,30(5):103-106.WU Di,CAI Sijing,DONG Xianwei.Research on evaluation model for overseas mining development environment and its application[J].Mining Research and Development,2010,30(5):103-106.
[18]张碧琼,田晓明.中国对外直接投资环境评估:综合评分法及应用[J].财贸经济,2012(2):73-80.ZHANG Biqiong,TIAN Xiaoming.Environment appraisal of foreign direct investment of China:comprehensive scoring method and its application[J].Finance&Trade Economics,2012(2):73-80.
[19]邢佳韵,于汶加,张若然,等.中国在哈萨克斯坦矿业投资区域优选评价研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1076-1085.XING Jiayun,YU Wenjia,ZHANG Ruoran,et al.A structural study of the appraisal index system for optimal mining regions in Kazakhstan[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1076-1085.
[20]黄河.几内亚铝土矿资源及投资建议浅析[J].世界有色金属,2017(10):22-25.HUANG He.Analysis on the bauxite resources and investment advices in Guinea[J].World Nonferrous Metals,2017(10):22-25.
[21]李晓明,王安建.未来20年印度资源需求预测及中国应对策略研究[J].地球学报,2017,38(1):45-53.LI Xiaoming,WANG Anjian.A study of the prediction of resources demand and economy of India and China's coping strategies in the upcoming 20 Years[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2017,38(1):45-53.
[22]朱帅,楚克磊,张艳飞,等.越南矿业及相关产业合作前景[J].中国矿业,2017,26(11):80-84,117.ZHU Shuai,CHU Kelei,ZHANG Yanfei,et al.Analysis on the prospects of Vietnam in mining and related industries[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(11):80-84,117.
[23]魏星.俄罗斯铝工业概述[J].轻金属,2015(10):1-5.WEI Xing.Overview of aluminum industry in Russia[J].Light Metals,2015(10):1-5.
[24]朱妍,霍云波.我国铝土矿资源及海外投资分析[J].中国有色金属,2016(12):38-39.ZHU Yan,HUO Yunbo.Analysis of China's bauxite resources and overseas investment[J].China Nonferrous Metals,2016(12):38-39.
[25]张美丽.中国对外铝矿直接投资的区位选择研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2012.
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