基于可公度和三性法对2016年意大利6级强震的预测和分析
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摘要
本文使用可公度法和三性法研究了意大利地区的地震情况.文章提出了新的地震数据选取方法,依据不同的震源深度和发震断层,将地震数据分为四种情形,然后使用三元可公度方法分别计算每种情形下的危险年份,最后统计分析认为2016年意大利发生6级强震的危险性最大.对于震中位置的预测,依据震中迁移规律分析认为该震将发生在意大利中南部地区.该预测于2016年1月发送给意大利国家地球物理与火山研究中心.实际情况是2016年8月意大利中部地区发生6.2级地震,死亡近300人,事实证明我们的预测是准确的.事后分析发现该震也符合7年地震周期及黄金分割规律,若综合使用这些规律以及可公度方法,可以提高预测的可靠性,并有可能对地震的月份作出较好的预测,为地震长期预测提供了一种可能的手段.
Commensurability is a method to predict the occurrence year of natural disaster. In this paper we use this method to study seismic activity in Italy and try to predict the next strong earthquake year of Italy. The traditional method uses all the quakes within research area to make commensurability analysis, here we propose a new method to select or abandon some quakes. The earthquake data of Italy is divided into 4 different situations based on the epicenter depth and the strikes of faults systems, and then commensurability analysis is made for each situation respectively, finally a summary for all the situations is made and the result shows that 2016 is the most dangerous year for M 6 strong quakes. For the epicenter location prediction, we find that the earthquakes in Italy show some migration law, namely the first quake happened in middle Italy in 1997, south Italy in 2002, middle Italy in 2009, and then north Italy in 2012, so we consider that the next strong quake will back to middle or south Italy. This prediction was sent to the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in January 2016. The fact is M 6.2 earthquake hit middle Italy in August 2016 and this verifies our prediction. The retrospective analysis shows that the seismic activity of Italy is also conformed to the 7 years cycle and the law of golden ratio, for example a M 6.3 quake occur in 2009, and 2009 plus 7 years is 2016, which shows the same result as that derived from commensurability analysis. The combination use of commensurability method and earthquake cycle method will increase the reliability of earthquake prediction, and provides a possibility that reducing the temporal error into several months.
Commensurability is a method to predict the occurrence year of natural disaster. In this paper we use this method to study seismic activity in Italy and try to predict the next strong earthquake year of Italy. The traditional method uses all the quakes within research area to make commensurability analysis, here we propose a new method to select or abandon some quakes. The earthquake data of Italy is divided into 4 different situations based on the epicenter depth and the strikes of faults systems, and then commensurability analysis is made for each situation respectively, finally a summary for all the situations is made and the result shows that 2016 is the most dangerous year for M 6 strong quakes. For the epicenter location prediction, we find that the earthquakes in Italy show some migration law, namely the first quake happened in middle Italy in 1997, south Italy in 2002, middle Italy in 2009, and then north Italy in 2012, so we consider that the next strong quake will back to middle or south Italy. This prediction was sent to the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in January 2016. The fact is M 6.2 earthquake hit middle Italy in August 2016 and this verifies our prediction. The retrospective analysis shows that the seismic activity of Italy is also conformed to the 7 years cycle and the law of golden ratio, for example a M 6.3 quake occur in 2009, and 2009 plus 7 years is 2016, which shows the same result as that derived from commensurability analysis. The combination use of commensurability method and earthquake cycle method will increase the reliability of earthquake prediction, and provides a possibility that reducing the temporal error into several months.
引文
Chen L Q. 2011. A review on earthquake migration research [J]. Plateau earthquake research(in Chinese), 23(3): 1-7.
Ding C X, Yan J P, Li M M, et al. 2014. Research on space-time symmetry of earthquake disasters in Italy [J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment(in Chinese), 28(8): 50-54.
Guo Z J, Han Y B, Wu J B. 2003. On prediction of strong earthquakes by means of three triplet method and criterion of activity in quiescence [J]. Earth Science Frontiers(in Chinese), 10(1): 201-211.
Han X, Dong J, Yan J P, et al. 2015. Research on space-time symmetry and tendency of earthquake with MW≥7.5 in Mexico [J]. Inland Earthquake(in Chinese), 29(1): 28-36, doi: 10.16256/j.issn.1001-8956.2015.01.003.
Li X N, Yan J P. 2017. Space-time symmetry and trend of MS≥7.0 earthquakes in Chuandian area [J]. Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese), 32(4): 1447-1453, doi: 10.6038/pg20170404.
Long X X, Yan J P, Sun H, et al. 2006. Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability [J]. Journal of Catastrophology(in Chinese), 21(3): 81-84.
Ma Z J, Li X Z, Jin J Y. 1992. The law interpretation and predication of earthquake migration-earthquake migration of four seismic belts in China mainland [J]. Seismology and Geology(in Chinese), 14(2): 129-139.
Tang B Q, Yan J P. 2015. The Active Pattern and Future Trend of Earthquakes with MS≥7.1 in FeiJi area [J]. Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese), 30(5): 2064-2070, doi: 10.6038/pg20150509.
Wang W J, Yan J P, Liu Y L, et al. 2016. Space-time symmetry of MW≥7.2 earthquake in Mexico [J]. Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese), 31(3): 982-987, doi: 10.6038/pg20160307.
Weng W B. 1981. Commensurability [J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese), 24(2): 151-154.
Weng W B. 1984. Fundamentals of forecast theory(in Chinese)[M]. Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press.
Yan J P, Yan N. 2008. Probability and verification of constructing an earthquake predicting system [J]. Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)(in Chinese), 37(5): 19-23, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672- 4283.2008.05.003.
陈立琼. 2011. 地震迁移现象研究综述[J]. 高原地震, 23(3): 1-7.
丁彩霞, 延军平, 李敏敏, 等. 2014. 意大利MS≥6地震时空对称性趋势判断[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 28(8): 50-54.
郭增建, 韩延本, 吴谨冰. 2003. 由三性法和静中动判据预测大震[J]. 地学前缘, 10(1): 70.
韩啸, 董婕, 延军平, 等. 2015. 墨西哥MW≥7.5地震时空对称性及趋势研究[J]. 内陆地震, 29(1): 28-36, doi: 10.16256/j.issn.1001-8956.2015.01.003.
李向农, 延军平. 2017. 川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时空对称特征及趋势判断[J]. 地球物理学进展, 32(4): 1447-1453, doi: 10.6038/pg20170404.
龙小霞, 延军平, 孙虎, 等. 2006. 基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J]. 灾害学, 21(3): 81-84.
马宗晋, 李献智, 金继宇. 1992. 地震迁移的规律?解释和预报—中国大陆四条地震带的地震迁移[J]. 地震地质, 14(2): 129-139.
唐宝琪, 延军平. 2015. 斐济地区MS≥7.1地震活动规律及未来趋势统计研究[J]. 地球物理学进展, 30(5): 2064-2070, doi: 10.6038/pg20150509.
王文静, 延军平, 刘永林, 等. 2016. 墨西哥MW≥7.2地震的时空对称性特征[J]. 地球物理学进展, 31(3): 982-987, doi: 10.6038/pg20160307.
翁文波. 1981. 可公度性[J]. 地球物理学报, 24(2): 151-154.
翁文波. 1984. 预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社.
延军平, 闫娜. 2008. 关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证[J]. 陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 37(5): 19-23, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672- 4283.2008.05.003.
Ding C X, Yan J P, Li M M, et al. 2014. Research on space-time symmetry of earthquake disasters in Italy [J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment(in Chinese), 28(8): 50-54.
Guo Z J, Han Y B, Wu J B. 2003. On prediction of strong earthquakes by means of three triplet method and criterion of activity in quiescence [J]. Earth Science Frontiers(in Chinese), 10(1): 201-211.
Han X, Dong J, Yan J P, et al. 2015. Research on space-time symmetry and tendency of earthquake with MW≥7.5 in Mexico [J]. Inland Earthquake(in Chinese), 29(1): 28-36, doi: 10.16256/j.issn.1001-8956.2015.01.003.
Li X N, Yan J P. 2017. Space-time symmetry and trend of MS≥7.0 earthquakes in Chuandian area [J]. Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese), 32(4): 1447-1453, doi: 10.6038/pg20170404.
Long X X, Yan J P, Sun H, et al. 2006. Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability [J]. Journal of Catastrophology(in Chinese), 21(3): 81-84.
Ma Z J, Li X Z, Jin J Y. 1992. The law interpretation and predication of earthquake migration-earthquake migration of four seismic belts in China mainland [J]. Seismology and Geology(in Chinese), 14(2): 129-139.
Tang B Q, Yan J P. 2015. The Active Pattern and Future Trend of Earthquakes with MS≥7.1 in FeiJi area [J]. Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese), 30(5): 2064-2070, doi: 10.6038/pg20150509.
Wang W J, Yan J P, Liu Y L, et al. 2016. Space-time symmetry of MW≥7.2 earthquake in Mexico [J]. Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese), 31(3): 982-987, doi: 10.6038/pg20160307.
Weng W B. 1981. Commensurability [J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese), 24(2): 151-154.
Weng W B. 1984. Fundamentals of forecast theory(in Chinese)[M]. Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press.
Yan J P, Yan N. 2008. Probability and verification of constructing an earthquake predicting system [J]. Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)(in Chinese), 37(5): 19-23, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672- 4283.2008.05.003.
陈立琼. 2011. 地震迁移现象研究综述[J]. 高原地震, 23(3): 1-7.
丁彩霞, 延军平, 李敏敏, 等. 2014. 意大利MS≥6地震时空对称性趋势判断[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 28(8): 50-54.
郭增建, 韩延本, 吴谨冰. 2003. 由三性法和静中动判据预测大震[J]. 地学前缘, 10(1): 70.
韩啸, 董婕, 延军平, 等. 2015. 墨西哥MW≥7.5地震时空对称性及趋势研究[J]. 内陆地震, 29(1): 28-36, doi: 10.16256/j.issn.1001-8956.2015.01.003.
李向农, 延军平. 2017. 川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时空对称特征及趋势判断[J]. 地球物理学进展, 32(4): 1447-1453, doi: 10.6038/pg20170404.
龙小霞, 延军平, 孙虎, 等. 2006. 基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J]. 灾害学, 21(3): 81-84.
马宗晋, 李献智, 金继宇. 1992. 地震迁移的规律?解释和预报—中国大陆四条地震带的地震迁移[J]. 地震地质, 14(2): 129-139.
唐宝琪, 延军平. 2015. 斐济地区MS≥7.1地震活动规律及未来趋势统计研究[J]. 地球物理学进展, 30(5): 2064-2070, doi: 10.6038/pg20150509.
王文静, 延军平, 刘永林, 等. 2016. 墨西哥MW≥7.2地震的时空对称性特征[J]. 地球物理学进展, 31(3): 982-987, doi: 10.6038/pg20160307.
翁文波. 1981. 可公度性[J]. 地球物理学报, 24(2): 151-154.
翁文波. 1984. 预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社.
延军平, 闫娜. 2008. 关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证[J]. 陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 37(5): 19-23, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672- 4283.2008.05.003.
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