基于断裂两侧应变能积累的地震危险性参数估计——以1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震为例
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摘要
本文基于断裂两侧应变能积累的概念,利用新夏垫断裂上探槽研究的古地震资料和1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震的历史资料,通过原地地震复发原则来评价指定断裂(段)在某一时段内的地震危险性,探讨其在未来一段时间内可能发生地震的最大潜在震级.由此说明现今应变能确定所面临的困难,而应用局部化应变(变形)与岩石-断裂系统局部失稳临界条件之间的联系,理论上可以由变形带的宽度减小率来预估未来地震的发生时间.
Based on the historical data of the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake and paleoearthquake data revealed by trenching on the Xinxiadian fault, together with the principle for earthquake recurrence in-situ on a fault or a segment,the maximum potential magnitude in the future on some segments of Xinxiadian fault is evaluated by taking consideration of the concept that strain energy accumulates on both sides of a fault. This illustrates that due to difficulty in determining the strain and stress in deep crustal rocks,the accumulated strain energy cannot be determined accurately. On the other hand,when the strain(deformation) localization is combined with the local instability critical conditions of the rock-fault system,the decreasing rate of deformation belt could be used for prediction of earthquake occurrence.
Based on the historical data of the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake and paleoearthquake data revealed by trenching on the Xinxiadian fault, together with the principle for earthquake recurrence in-situ on a fault or a segment,the maximum potential magnitude in the future on some segments of Xinxiadian fault is evaluated by taking consideration of the concept that strain energy accumulates on both sides of a fault. This illustrates that due to difficulty in determining the strain and stress in deep crustal rocks,the accumulated strain energy cannot be determined accurately. On the other hand,when the strain(deformation) localization is combined with the local instability critical conditions of the rock-fault system,the decreasing rate of deformation belt could be used for prediction of earthquake occurrence.
引文
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郭星,潘华. 2014.海原断裂带强震发生概率的评估方法[J].地震学报,36(6):1043–1053.Guo X,Pan H. 2014. Estimation methods for occurrence probability of large earthquakes in the Haiyuan fault zone in northwestern China[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica,36(6):1043–1053(in Chinese).
郭增建,马宗晋. 1988.中国特大地震研究(一)[M].北京:地震出版社:98–113.Guo Z J,Ma Z J. 1988. Mega Earthquake Research of China(Ⅰ)[M]. Beijing:Seismological Press:98–113(in Chinese).
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吕晓健,闻学泽. 2014.根据烈度分布确定华北历史地震破裂区的经验准则及其应用[J].地震地质,36(1):62–79.LüX J,Wen X Z. 2014. Empirical criterions and their preliminary application to determine rupture zones of historical earthquakes in North China from seismic intensity distributions[J]. Seismology and Geology,36(1):62–79(in Chinese).
马瑾. 2010.地震机理与瞬间因素对地震的触发作用:兼论地震发生的不确定性[J].自然杂志,32(6):311–313.Ma J. 2010. Uncertainty of the earthquakes and earthquake mechanism and seismic triggering effect of instantaneous factors[J].Chinese Journal of Nature,32(6):311–313(in Chinese).
冉永康,邓起东,杨晓平,张晚霞,李如成,向宏发. 1997. 1679年三河—平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔[J].地震地质,19(3):193–201.Ran Y K,Deng Q D,Yang X P,Zhang W X,Li R C,Xiang H F. 1997. Paleoearthquakes and recurrence interval on the seismogenic fault of 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8 earthquake,Hebei and Beijing[J]. Seismology and Geology,19(3):193–201(in Chinese).
沈军,李莹甄,汪一鹏. 2004.地震构造的能量积累和释放特征与新疆天山部分地区地震危险性分析[J].中国地震,20 (3):229–237.Shen J,Li Y Z,Wang Y P. 2004. Preliminary study on accumulating and releasing characteristics of seismic tectonic energy and seismic risk of some seismogenic tectonics in Tianshan[J]. Earthquake Research in China,20(3):229–237(in Chinese).
孙训方,方孝淑,关来泰. 2002.材料力学(Ⅰ)[M].北京:高等教育出版社:1–360.Sun X F,Fang X S,Guan L T. 2002. Mechanics of Materials(Ⅰ)[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press:1–360(in Chinese).
万永魁,沈军,于晓辉,戴训也,王雷,邵博,李祥. 2014.北京平原区夏垫活动断裂滑动速率及古地震复发间隔[J].防灾科技学院学报,16(3):38–45.Wan Y K,Shen J,Yu X H,Dai X Y,Wang L,Shao B,Li X. 2014. The slipping rates and ancient earthquake recurrence interval at Xiadian fault,Beijing plain[J]. Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention,16(3):38–45(in Chinese).
向宏发,方仲景,徐杰,李如成,贾三发,郝书俭,王景钵,张晚霞. 1988.三河—平谷8级地震区的构造背景与大震重复性研究[J].地震地质,10(1):15–28.Xiang H F,Fang Z J,Xu J,Li R C,Jia S F,Hao S J,Wang J B,Zhang W X. 1988. Seismotectonic background and recurrence interval of great earthquakes in 1676 Sanhe-Pinggu M=8 earthquake area[J]. Seismology and Geology,10(1):15–28(in Chinese).
赵纪生. 2004.岩土材料破坏过程分析[R].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学:20–31.Zhao J S. 2004. Analysis of the Failure Process of Geomaterials[R]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology:20–31(in Chinese).
赵纪生,周正华. 2009.发震断层的永久位移概率评估方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,28(增刊2):3349–3356.Zhao J S,Zhou Z H. 2009. A probabilistic approach to evaluate permanent displacement of causative faults[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,28(S2):3349–3356(in Chinese).
中国地震局监测预报司. 2007.地震学与地震观测(试用本)[M].北京:地震出版社:1–270.Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration. 2007. Seismology and Seismic Observation(Trial Edition)[M]. Beijing:Seismological Press:1–270(in Chinese).
钟羽云,朱新运,张震峰. 2004.不同类型地震的地震矩-震级标度关系研究[J].西北地震学报,26(1):57–61.Zhong Y Y,Zhu X Y,Zhang Z F. 2004. Study on relations between seismic moment and magnitude for various types of earthquake sequence[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal,26(1):57–61(in Chinese).
Boatwright J, Choy G L. 1986. Teleseismic estimates of the energy radiated by shallow earthquakes[J]. J Geophys Res,91 (B2):2095–2112.
Reid H F. 1910. The Mechanics of the Earthquake,The California Earthquake of April 18,1906[R]. Washington D C:State Earthquake Investigation Commission:43–47.
Wallace R E,Davis J F,McNally K C. 1984. Terms for expressing earthquake potential,prediction and probability[J]. Bull Seismol Soc Am,74:1819–1825.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J. 1994. New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J]. Bull Seismol Soc Am,84(4):974–1002.
国家地震局震害防御司. 1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社:1–514.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,State Seismological Bureau. 1995. Catalogue of Historical Strong Earthquakes in China(23rd Century BC to 1911)[M]. Beijing:Seismological Press:1–514(in Chinese).
郭星,潘华. 2014.海原断裂带强震发生概率的评估方法[J].地震学报,36(6):1043–1053.Guo X,Pan H. 2014. Estimation methods for occurrence probability of large earthquakes in the Haiyuan fault zone in northwestern China[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica,36(6):1043–1053(in Chinese).
郭增建,马宗晋. 1988.中国特大地震研究(一)[M].北京:地震出版社:98–113.Guo Z J,Ma Z J. 1988. Mega Earthquake Research of China(Ⅰ)[M]. Beijing:Seismological Press:98–113(in Chinese).
胡聿贤,2006.地震工程学[M].第二版.北京:地震出版社:13.Hu Y X,2006. Earthquake Engineering[M]. 2nd edition. Beijing:Seismological Press:13(in Chinese).
江娃利,侯治华,肖振敏,谢新生. 2000.北京平原夏垫断裂齐心庄探槽古地震事件分析[J].地震地质,22(4):413–422.Jiang W L,Hou Z H,Xiao Z M,Xie X S. 2000. Study on paleoearthquakes of Qixinzhuang trench at the Xiadian fault,Beijing plain[J]. Seismology and Geology,22(4):413–422(in Chinese).
李世愚,和泰名,尹祥础. 2010.岩石断裂力学导论[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社:1–468.Li S Y,He T M,Yi X C. 2010. Introduction to Rock Fracture Mechanics[M]. Hefei:China University of Science and Technology Press:1–468(in Chinese).
卢寿德. 2006. GB17741—2005《工程场地地震安全性评价》宣贯教材[M].北京:中国标准出版社:1–105.Lu S D. 2006. Teaching Book for GB17741-2005 Evaluation of Seismic Safety for Engineering Sites[M]. Beijing:Standards Press of China:1–105(in Chinese).
吕晓健,闻学泽. 2014.根据烈度分布确定华北历史地震破裂区的经验准则及其应用[J].地震地质,36(1):62–79.LüX J,Wen X Z. 2014. Empirical criterions and their preliminary application to determine rupture zones of historical earthquakes in North China from seismic intensity distributions[J]. Seismology and Geology,36(1):62–79(in Chinese).
马瑾. 2010.地震机理与瞬间因素对地震的触发作用:兼论地震发生的不确定性[J].自然杂志,32(6):311–313.Ma J. 2010. Uncertainty of the earthquakes and earthquake mechanism and seismic triggering effect of instantaneous factors[J].Chinese Journal of Nature,32(6):311–313(in Chinese).
冉永康,邓起东,杨晓平,张晚霞,李如成,向宏发. 1997. 1679年三河—平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔[J].地震地质,19(3):193–201.Ran Y K,Deng Q D,Yang X P,Zhang W X,Li R C,Xiang H F. 1997. Paleoearthquakes and recurrence interval on the seismogenic fault of 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8 earthquake,Hebei and Beijing[J]. Seismology and Geology,19(3):193–201(in Chinese).
沈军,李莹甄,汪一鹏. 2004.地震构造的能量积累和释放特征与新疆天山部分地区地震危险性分析[J].中国地震,20 (3):229–237.Shen J,Li Y Z,Wang Y P. 2004. Preliminary study on accumulating and releasing characteristics of seismic tectonic energy and seismic risk of some seismogenic tectonics in Tianshan[J]. Earthquake Research in China,20(3):229–237(in Chinese).
孙训方,方孝淑,关来泰. 2002.材料力学(Ⅰ)[M].北京:高等教育出版社:1–360.Sun X F,Fang X S,Guan L T. 2002. Mechanics of Materials(Ⅰ)[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press:1–360(in Chinese).
万永魁,沈军,于晓辉,戴训也,王雷,邵博,李祥. 2014.北京平原区夏垫活动断裂滑动速率及古地震复发间隔[J].防灾科技学院学报,16(3):38–45.Wan Y K,Shen J,Yu X H,Dai X Y,Wang L,Shao B,Li X. 2014. The slipping rates and ancient earthquake recurrence interval at Xiadian fault,Beijing plain[J]. Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention,16(3):38–45(in Chinese).
向宏发,方仲景,徐杰,李如成,贾三发,郝书俭,王景钵,张晚霞. 1988.三河—平谷8级地震区的构造背景与大震重复性研究[J].地震地质,10(1):15–28.Xiang H F,Fang Z J,Xu J,Li R C,Jia S F,Hao S J,Wang J B,Zhang W X. 1988. Seismotectonic background and recurrence interval of great earthquakes in 1676 Sanhe-Pinggu M=8 earthquake area[J]. Seismology and Geology,10(1):15–28(in Chinese).
赵纪生. 2004.岩土材料破坏过程分析[R].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学:20–31.Zhao J S. 2004. Analysis of the Failure Process of Geomaterials[R]. Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology:20–31(in Chinese).
赵纪生,周正华. 2009.发震断层的永久位移概率评估方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,28(增刊2):3349–3356.Zhao J S,Zhou Z H. 2009. A probabilistic approach to evaluate permanent displacement of causative faults[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,28(S2):3349–3356(in Chinese).
中国地震局监测预报司. 2007.地震学与地震观测(试用本)[M].北京:地震出版社:1–270.Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration. 2007. Seismology and Seismic Observation(Trial Edition)[M]. Beijing:Seismological Press:1–270(in Chinese).
钟羽云,朱新运,张震峰. 2004.不同类型地震的地震矩-震级标度关系研究[J].西北地震学报,26(1):57–61.Zhong Y Y,Zhu X Y,Zhang Z F. 2004. Study on relations between seismic moment and magnitude for various types of earthquake sequence[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal,26(1):57–61(in Chinese).
Boatwright J, Choy G L. 1986. Teleseismic estimates of the energy radiated by shallow earthquakes[J]. J Geophys Res,91 (B2):2095–2112.
Reid H F. 1910. The Mechanics of the Earthquake,The California Earthquake of April 18,1906[R]. Washington D C:State Earthquake Investigation Commission:43–47.
Wallace R E,Davis J F,McNally K C. 1984. Terms for expressing earthquake potential,prediction and probability[J]. Bull Seismol Soc Am,74:1819–1825.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J. 1994. New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J]. Bull Seismol Soc Am,84(4):974–1002.
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