基于Bootstrap方法的堆石坝坝坡稳定可靠度分析

详细信息    查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

英文篇名：Slope stability reliability of rockfill dams based on Bootstrap method 作者：郭怿品 ; 李典庆 ; 唐小松 ; 曹子君 英文作者：GUO Yipin;LI Dianqing;TANG Xiaosong;CAO Zijun;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University; 关键词：堆石坝 ; 统计不确定性 ; 可靠度 ; Bootstrap方法 英文关键词：rockfill dams;;statistical uncertainty;;reliability;;Bootstrap method 中文刊名：武汉大学学报(工学版) 英文刊名：Engineering Journal of Wuhan University 机构：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室; 出版日期：2019-02-15 出版单位：武汉大学学报(工学版) 年：2019 期：02 基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:51509188,51579190,51779189);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(编号:2042017kf0247) 语种：中文; 页：15-24 页数：10 CN：42-1675/T ISSN：1671-8844 分类号：TV223

摘要

基于Bootstrap方法提出了一种堆石坝坝坡稳定可靠度分析方法.首先,介绍了一种堆石坝坝坡稳定可靠度分析方法;其次,运用Bootstrap方法对抗剪强度参数的边缘分布函数及表征相关性的Copula函数的统计不确定性进行了度量;最后,以糯扎渡水电站心墙堆石坝为例研究了边缘分布函数与Copula函数的统计不确定性对堆石坝坝坡稳定可靠度分析结果的影响规律.结果表明:基于抗剪强度参数试验数据估计的边缘分布函数与Copula函数具有较大统计不确定性;Bootstrap方法可以有效地模拟边缘分布函数和Copula函数的统计不确定性并将坝坡稳定失效概率表征为具有一定置信水平的置信区间;同时考虑边缘分布参数、边缘分布类型、相关系数与相关结构统计不确定性与仅考虑边缘分布参数与相关系数的统计不确定性相比将使失效概率具有更大变异性,且失效概率均值更大,忽略分布类型和相关结构的统计不确定性将高估堆石坝坝坡的实际稳定状况.
        This paper proposes a Bootstrap-based method for analyzing slope stability reliability of rockfill dams.Firstly,an analytical method for slope stability reliability of rockfill dams is introduced.Secondly,the statistical uncertainties of marginal distribution function and Copula function which characterize the correlation between shear strength parameters are measured by Bootstrap method.Finally,the influence of statistical uncertainties of marginal distribution function and Copula function on the slope stability reliability of rockfill dams is studied with Nuozadu dam as an example.The results show that the marginal distribution functions and the Copula functions estimated by original test data of shear strength parameters have great statistical uncertainty.Bootstrap method can effectively model these statistical uncertainties and use a confidence interval with a certain level to characterize the failure probability of rockfill dams.The failure probability considering the statistical uncertainties of marginal distribution parameters,marginal distribution type,correlation coefficient and correlation type will have greater variability and higher means than the answer considering the statistical uncertainties of marginal distribution parameters and distribution type.The actual stability of rockfill dams will be overestimated if ignoring the statistical uncertainties of distribution type and correlation type.

引文

[1]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.DL/T5395-2007碾压式土石坝设计规范[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2008:47-51,83-89.National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China.DL/T5395-2007Design Specification for Rolled Earth-rock Fill Dams[S].Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2008:47-51,83-89.
    [2]中华人民共和国水利部.SL274-2001碾压式土石坝设计规范[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002:71-77.Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China.SL274-2001Design Code for Rolled Earthrock Fill Dams[S].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,2002:71-77.
    [3]陈群,唐岷,朱分清.强度参数的不确定性对土石坝坝坡失稳概率的影响[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(11):1594-1599.Chen Qun,Tang Min,Zhu Fenqing.Influence of uncertainty of strength parameters on instability probability of embankment dam slopes[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2008,30(11):1594-1599.
    [4]张明,刘金勇,麦家煊.土石坝边坡稳定可靠度分析与设计[J].水力发电学报,2006,25(2):103-107.Zhang Ming,Liu Jinyong,Mai Jiaxuan.Reliability analysis and design of slope stability of earth-rock dam[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2006,25(2):103-107.
    [5]唐小松,李典庆,周创兵,等.基于Bootstrap方法的岩土体参数联合分布模型识别[J].岩土力学,2015,36(4):913-922.Tang Xiaosong,Li Dianqing,Zhou Chuangbing,et al.Bootstrap method for joint probability distribution identification of correlated geotechnical parameters[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2015,36(4):913-922.
    [6]唐小松,李典庆,曹子君,等.有限数据条件下边坡可靠度分析的Bootstrap方法[J].岩土力学,2016,37(3):893-901.Tang Xiaosong,Li Dianqing,Cao Zijun,et al.ABootstrap method for analyzing slope reliability based on limited shear-strength parameter data[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(3):893-901.
    [7]吴震宇,陈建康,许唯临,等.高堆石坝非线性强度指标坝坡稳定可靠度分析方法研究及工程应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(1):130-137.Wu Zhenyu,Chen Jiankang,Xu Weilin,et al.Research on methodology of reliability analysis of high rockfill dam slope stability using nonlinear strength indexes and its engineering application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(1):130-137.
    [8]Wu Z Y,Chen J K,Li Y L,et al.An algorithm in generalized coordinate system and its application to reliability analysis of seismic slope stability of high rockfill dams[J].Engineering Geology,2015,188:88-96.
    [9]唐小松,李典庆,周创兵,等.基于Copula函数的抗剪强度参数间相关性模拟及边坡可靠度分析[J].岩土工程学报,2012,34(12):2284-2291.Tang Xiaosong,Li Dianqing,Zhou Chuangbing,et al.Modeling dependence between shear strength parameters using Copulas and its effect on slope reliability[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2012,34(12):2284-2291.
    [10]Luo Z,Atamturktur S,Juang C H.Bootstrapping for characterizing the effect of uncertainty in sample statistics for braced excavations[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2013,139(1):13-23.
    [11]Duncan J M,Byrne P M,Wong K S.Strength,stress-strain and bulk modulus parameters for finite element analysis of stress and movements in soil masses(research report No.VCB/GT/78-02)[R].Berkeley:University of California,1978.
    [12]Nelson R B.An Introduction to Copulas[M].New York:Springer,2006.
    [13]Akaike H.A new look at the statistical model identification[J].IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,1974,19(6):716-723.
    [14]Efron B.Bootstrap methods:another look at the Jackknife[J].The Annals of Statistics,1979,7(1):1-26.