新世纪中国内陆地区城市经济增长演变特征及动力因素研究——以贵阳市为例
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摘要
区位理论指向下中国城市经济发展总体呈现沿海优于内陆地区的空间格局.西部大开发以来,以中心城市为核心的城市群经济促进格局内部区域间差异收敛.内陆地区中心城市经济增长的驱动因素研究有助于丰富经济增长的空间区位理论.因此,选择贵阳市作为研究个案解析内陆地区中心城市经济增长的动力因素.具体是,以驱动经济增长的投资、消费和出口"三驾马车"为基准,筛选出固定资产投资、实际利用外资、旅游总收入、外贸出口等10项指标,运用熵值法测度2000年～2017年不同层级指标的信息熵、冗余度和权重值,分析贵阳经济增长的阶段性特征及其动力因素.结果表明:1)投资、消费和出口均促进了经济增长且有强有弱,具体是投资>消费>出口.投资是驱动经济增长的主要动力,消费是驱动经济增长的次要动力.出口(外需)对经济增长的影响十分微弱,与沿海地区出口驱动经济增长影响强趋异;2)投资、消费和出口的细分指标对经济增长影响有强有弱且呈现阶段性特征.投资类指标中,实际利用外资、房地产项目投资和第三产业固定资产投资是经济增长的主要动力,旅游总收入是消费类指标中经济增长的主要动力;3)不同产业拉动经济增长趋异的原因是投资倾向所致.第二、三产业是产业投资的重要方向且第三产业投资额度占比最大;4)快速的经济增长增加了经济总量,提升了经济发展水平,扩大了内部需求与外部需求,带动了旅游业井喷式发展,助推旅游成为消费类指标中驱动经济增长的主要动力.经济的快速发展提升了城市居民人均消费能力,促进社会零售总量不断增长且成为了驱动经济增长的重要支撑.
According to location theory,China's urban economic development generally shows the spatial pattern of coastal areas better than inland areas.Since the development of the western region in China,the urban agglomeration economy with the central city as the core promotes the convergence of regional differences within the pattern.The driving factors of urban economic growth in inland areas are helpful to enrich the spatial location theory of economic growth.Therefore,Guiyang City is chosen as a case study to elucidate the driving factors of urban economic growth in inland areas.Specifically,on the basis of investment,consumption and export,which drive economic growth,10 indices such as investment in fixed assets,actual utilization of foreign capital,total tourism income and foreign trade export are selected.The entropy method is used to measure the information entropy,redundancy and weight values of different levels of indices from 2000 to 2017.It is used to analyze the characteristics and driving factors of Guiyang's economic growth.The results show as follows.1)Investment,consumption and export all promote economic growth,and specifically,it is investment> consumption > export.Investment is the main driving force for economic growth,and consumption is the secondary driving force for economic growth.The impact of export(external demand)on economic growth is very weak,which is strongly different from that of export-driven economic growth in coastal areas.2)The segmentation indices of investment,consumption and export have strong and weak impact on economic growth,and exhibit a periodic feature.Among the investment indices,the actual use of foreign capital,real estate investment and investment in fixed assets of the tertiary industry are the main driving force for economic growth,and the total tourism income is the main driving force for economic growth in the consumption indicators.3)The reason why different industries drive economic growth is the tendency of investment.The second industry and the third industry are the important directions of industrial investment,and the third industry investment accounts for the largest proportion.4)Rapid economic growth has increased the total economic volume,raised the level of economic development,expanded the internal and external demand,and led to the blowout of tourism development.Boosting tourism has become the main driving force of consumption indicators in economic growth.The rapid development of economy has promoted the per capita consumption capacity of urban residents,and promoted the continuous growth of the total retail sales volume,which has become an important support for economic growth.
According to location theory,China's urban economic development generally shows the spatial pattern of coastal areas better than inland areas.Since the development of the western region in China,the urban agglomeration economy with the central city as the core promotes the convergence of regional differences within the pattern.The driving factors of urban economic growth in inland areas are helpful to enrich the spatial location theory of economic growth.Therefore,Guiyang City is chosen as a case study to elucidate the driving factors of urban economic growth in inland areas.Specifically,on the basis of investment,consumption and export,which drive economic growth,10 indices such as investment in fixed assets,actual utilization of foreign capital,total tourism income and foreign trade export are selected.The entropy method is used to measure the information entropy,redundancy and weight values of different levels of indices from 2000 to 2017.It is used to analyze the characteristics and driving factors of Guiyang's economic growth.The results show as follows.1)Investment,consumption and export all promote economic growth,and specifically,it is investment> consumption > export.Investment is the main driving force for economic growth,and consumption is the secondary driving force for economic growth.The impact of export(external demand)on economic growth is very weak,which is strongly different from that of export-driven economic growth in coastal areas.2)The segmentation indices of investment,consumption and export have strong and weak impact on economic growth,and exhibit a periodic feature.Among the investment indices,the actual use of foreign capital,real estate investment and investment in fixed assets of the tertiary industry are the main driving force for economic growth,and the total tourism income is the main driving force for economic growth in the consumption indicators.3)The reason why different industries drive economic growth is the tendency of investment.The second industry and the third industry are the important directions of industrial investment,and the third industry investment accounts for the largest proportion.4)Rapid economic growth has increased the total economic volume,raised the level of economic development,expanded the internal and external demand,and led to the blowout of tourism development.Boosting tourism has become the main driving force of consumption indicators in economic growth.The rapid development of economy has promoted the per capita consumption capacity of urban residents,and promoted the continuous growth of the total retail sales volume,which has become an important support for economic growth.
引文
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[13]STURGILL B.The relationship between factor shares and economic development[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2012,34(4):1044-1062.
[14]齐明珠.中国农村劳动力转移对经济增长贡献的量化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(4):127-135.QI M Z.Economic impact of rural to urban labor migration in China from 1991to 2011[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2014,24(4):127-135.(Ch).
[15]宋春香.基于生产要素对经济增长影响的实证分析---以江苏省为例[J].对外经贸,2011(7):86-88.SONG C X.Empirical analysis on the impact of production factor on economic growth:A case study of Jiangsu Province[J].Foreign Economic Relations&Trade,2011(7):86-88.(Ch).
[16]王萍.劳动力年龄和教育结构对经济增长的影响研究---基于人力资本存量生命周期的视角[J].宏观经济研究,2015(1):52-57.WANG P.Research on the impact of labor age and educational structure on economic growth from the perspective of life cycle of human capital stock[J].Macroeconomics,2015(1):52-57.(Ch).
[17]SNIEKA V,BARKAUSKIEN E·K,BARKAUSKAS V.The impact of economic factors on the development of rural tourism:Lithuanian case[J].Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2014,156(2-3):280-285.
[18]朱晓华,邓宝义.我国产业结构对经济增长影响的实证分析[J].企业经济,2013(7):132-136.ZHU X H,DENG B Y.Empirical analysis of the impact of industrial structure on economic growth in China[J].Enterprise Economy,2013(7):132-136.(Ch).
[19]于潇,毛雅萍.长三角地区人力资本对经济增长影响的比较研究[J].人口学刊,2015,37(3):41-50.YU X,MAO Y P.Comparative analysis of the Yangtze River Delta human capital and economic growth[J].Population Journal,2015,37(3):41-50.(Ch).
[20]刘广义.开发性金融对经济增长影响效应的动态分析[J].企业经济,2012(8):181-184.LIU G Y.Dynamic analysis of the impact of developmental finance on economic growth[J].Enterprise Economy,2012(8):181-184.(Ch).
[21]李安渝,张昭,曾蔚.互联网应用对经济增长的影响研究---基于扩展的C-D生产函数[J].中国商论,2014(13):200-201,203.LI A Y,ZHANG Z,ZENG W.Research on the impact of internet applications on economic growth:Based on extended C-D production function[J].China Journal of Commerce,2014(13):200-201,203.(Ch).
[22]曹华.改善投资、消费、出口的比例关系促进经济协调发展[J].经济问题探索,2007(5):8-11.CAO H.Improving the proportional relation of investment,consumption and export to promote the coordinated development of economy[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2007(5):8-11.(Ch).
[23]尚运生.河南省投资、消费、出口与经济增长的实证分析---基于1985-2014年统计数据[J].中外企业家,2016(33):23-25.SHANG Y S.Empirical analysis of investment,consumption,export and economic growth in Henan Province Based on statistics from 1985to 2014[J].Chinese&Foreign Entrepreneurs,2016(33):23-25.(Ch).
[24]郭显光.熵值法及其在综合评价中的应用[J].财贸研究,1994(6):56-60.GUO X G.Entropy method and its application in Comprehensive Evaluation[J].Finance and Trade Research,1994(6):56-60.(Ch).
[25]蔡永龙,陈忠暖,陈妙如.后终期阶段城市化水平演变特征及驱动力分析---以广州市为例[J].湖南师范大学自然科学学报,2017,40(5):8-16.CAI Y L,CHEN Z N,CHEN M R.Evolution features and the driving factors of the late and terminal stages’urbanization:A case of Guangzhou[J].Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University,2017,40(5):8-16.(Ch).
[2]JOKANOVI C'B,LALIC B,MILOVAN CˇEVI C'M,et al.Economic development evaluation based on science and patents[J].Physica A Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2017,481:141-145.
[3]金自乾.关于消费、投资、出口对我国经济拉动作用的分析[J].商情,2011(36):35-37.JIN Z Q.An analysis of the driving role of consumption,investment and export in China’s economy[J].Commercial situation,2011(36):35-37.(Ch).
[4]胡云锋,徐芝英,刘越,等.地理空间数据的尺度转换[J].地球科学进展,2013,28(3):297-304.HU Y,XU Z,LIU Y,et al.A review of the scaling issues of geospatial data[J].Advances in Earth Science,2013,28(3):297-304.(Ch).
[5]ISLAM M N.Export expansion and economic growth:testing for co integration and causality[J].Applied Economics,1998,30(3):415-425.
[6]刘卫东,刘红光,唐志鹏,等.出口对中国区域经济增长和产业结构转型的影响分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):407-415.LIU W D,LIU H G,TANG Z P,et al.The impacts of exports on regional economic development and industrial restructuring in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(4):407-415.(Ch).
[7]张梦婷,钟昌标.出口贸易方式与区域经济增长:基于中国省际面板数据的分析[J].科技与管理,2015,17(4):83-88.ZHANG M T,ZHONG C B.Effect of export trade on regional economic growth:based on China’s panel data of provinces[J].Science-Technology and Management,2015,17(4):83-88.(Ch).
[8]AKMAK E.Causality relationship between export expansion and economic growth:Empirical evidence for Turkey[J].1995.
[9]魏立佳,李媛.外商直接投资与中国省域经济增长动态关系研究---基于1988~2008年省际面板数据的实证分析[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2011,13(2):52-61.WEI L J,LI Y.A study of dynamic interaction between FDIand provincial economic development in China:Empirical analysis based on 1988-2008provincial data[J].Journal of Capital University of Economics&Business,2011,13(2):52-61.(Ch).
[10]宋长青,李子伦,马方.中国经济增长效率的地区差异及收敛分析[J].城市问题,2013(6):46-51.SONG C Q,LI Z L,MA F.Regional differences and convergence analysis of China’s economic growth efficiency[J].Urban Problems,2013(6):46-51.(Ch).
[11]李洪英.农村消费对经济增长影响效应的区域差异研究---基于我国省际数据的面板协整检验[J].商场现代化,2010(28):83-84.LI H Y.A study on regional differences of the impact of rural consumption on economic growth:A panel cointegration test based on China’s provincial data[J].Market Modernization,2010(28):83-84.(Ch).
[12]马笑天,兰伟.经济新常态下我国经济增长动力因素的变化探究[J].中国物价,2017(5):3-5.MA X T,LAN W.Research on the change of dynamic factors of economic growth in China under the new normal economy[J].China Price,2017(5):3-5.(Ch).
[13]STURGILL B.The relationship between factor shares and economic development[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2012,34(4):1044-1062.
[14]齐明珠.中国农村劳动力转移对经济增长贡献的量化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(4):127-135.QI M Z.Economic impact of rural to urban labor migration in China from 1991to 2011[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2014,24(4):127-135.(Ch).
[15]宋春香.基于生产要素对经济增长影响的实证分析---以江苏省为例[J].对外经贸,2011(7):86-88.SONG C X.Empirical analysis on the impact of production factor on economic growth:A case study of Jiangsu Province[J].Foreign Economic Relations&Trade,2011(7):86-88.(Ch).
[16]王萍.劳动力年龄和教育结构对经济增长的影响研究---基于人力资本存量生命周期的视角[J].宏观经济研究,2015(1):52-57.WANG P.Research on the impact of labor age and educational structure on economic growth from the perspective of life cycle of human capital stock[J].Macroeconomics,2015(1):52-57.(Ch).
[17]SNIEKA V,BARKAUSKIEN E·K,BARKAUSKAS V.The impact of economic factors on the development of rural tourism:Lithuanian case[J].Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2014,156(2-3):280-285.
[18]朱晓华,邓宝义.我国产业结构对经济增长影响的实证分析[J].企业经济,2013(7):132-136.ZHU X H,DENG B Y.Empirical analysis of the impact of industrial structure on economic growth in China[J].Enterprise Economy,2013(7):132-136.(Ch).
[19]于潇,毛雅萍.长三角地区人力资本对经济增长影响的比较研究[J].人口学刊,2015,37(3):41-50.YU X,MAO Y P.Comparative analysis of the Yangtze River Delta human capital and economic growth[J].Population Journal,2015,37(3):41-50.(Ch).
[20]刘广义.开发性金融对经济增长影响效应的动态分析[J].企业经济,2012(8):181-184.LIU G Y.Dynamic analysis of the impact of developmental finance on economic growth[J].Enterprise Economy,2012(8):181-184.(Ch).
[21]李安渝,张昭,曾蔚.互联网应用对经济增长的影响研究---基于扩展的C-D生产函数[J].中国商论,2014(13):200-201,203.LI A Y,ZHANG Z,ZENG W.Research on the impact of internet applications on economic growth:Based on extended C-D production function[J].China Journal of Commerce,2014(13):200-201,203.(Ch).
[22]曹华.改善投资、消费、出口的比例关系促进经济协调发展[J].经济问题探索,2007(5):8-11.CAO H.Improving the proportional relation of investment,consumption and export to promote the coordinated development of economy[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2007(5):8-11.(Ch).
[23]尚运生.河南省投资、消费、出口与经济增长的实证分析---基于1985-2014年统计数据[J].中外企业家,2016(33):23-25.SHANG Y S.Empirical analysis of investment,consumption,export and economic growth in Henan Province Based on statistics from 1985to 2014[J].Chinese&Foreign Entrepreneurs,2016(33):23-25.(Ch).
[24]郭显光.熵值法及其在综合评价中的应用[J].财贸研究,1994(6):56-60.GUO X G.Entropy method and its application in Comprehensive Evaluation[J].Finance and Trade Research,1994(6):56-60.(Ch).
[25]蔡永龙,陈忠暖,陈妙如.后终期阶段城市化水平演变特征及驱动力分析---以广州市为例[J].湖南师范大学自然科学学报,2017,40(5):8-16.CAI Y L,CHEN Z N,CHEN M R.Evolution features and the driving factors of the late and terminal stages’urbanization:A case of Guangzhou[J].Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University,2017,40(5):8-16.(Ch).
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