基于水库群预报调度的黄河流域干旱应对系统
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摘要
为有效应对日益严重的流域干旱问题,有必要开展面向干旱全过程的黄河流域干旱应对系统研究。基于干旱演变过程设计了干旱指数,通过天气预报模型、回归分析等进行干旱、需水与径流预报;设置多年调节水库旱限水位,实现水资源年际补偿;识别洪水和泥沙分期特征,采用分期汛限水位增加洪水资源利用量;建立了梯级水库群协同优化调度模型,调配抗旱水源。算例结果显示:黄河流域干旱应对系统能够平衡年际间的干旱损失以避免重度破坏,与实际情况相比,在重旱的2014年增加抗旱水源22.40亿m~3。建立的干旱应对系统已应用于黄河流域抗旱实践,提升了流域应对干旱的水资源调控能力。
To handle increasingly severe basin-scale drought systematically,this study develops the Yellow River basin drought response system facing the entire process of drought. A drought index is designed based on the evolution of drought. Drought,water demand,and runoff are forecast using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and regression analysis. The drought limit water level is set in the multiyear regulating storage reservoir to realize interannual compensation of water resources. After the characteristics of flood and sediment stages are identified,the staged flood limit water level is applied to increase the utilization of flood resources. A synergetic optimal operation model of cascade reservoirs is developed to allocate water resources in order to resist drought. The case study indicates that the drought response system in the Yellow River basin can prevent severe damage from drought by balancing the damage among different years. Compared with the actual situation,this system could increase 2.24 billion m~3 of the water supply in 2014 when severe drought occurred. The drought response system has been applied in the Yellow River basin,enhancing the capacity for regulating basin-scale water resources to handle drought.
To handle increasingly severe basin-scale drought systematically,this study develops the Yellow River basin drought response system facing the entire process of drought. A drought index is designed based on the evolution of drought. Drought,water demand,and runoff are forecast using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and regression analysis. The drought limit water level is set in the multiyear regulating storage reservoir to realize interannual compensation of water resources. After the characteristics of flood and sediment stages are identified,the staged flood limit water level is applied to increase the utilization of flood resources. A synergetic optimal operation model of cascade reservoirs is developed to allocate water resources in order to resist drought. The case study indicates that the drought response system in the Yellow River basin can prevent severe damage from drought by balancing the damage among different years. Compared with the actual situation,this system could increase 2.24 billion m~3 of the water supply in 2014 when severe drought occurred. The drought response system has been applied in the Yellow River basin,enhancing the capacity for regulating basin-scale water resources to handle drought.
引文
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[9] 任立良,沈鸿仁,袁飞,等.变化环境下渭河流域水文干旱演变特征剖析[J].水科学进展,2016,27(4):492-500.(REN L L,SHEN H R,YUAN F,et al.Hydrological drought characteristics in the Weihe catchment in a changing environment[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(4):492-500.(in Chinese))
[10] 王兆礼,黄泽勤,李军,等.基于SPEI和NDVI的中国流域尺度气象干旱及植被分布时空演变[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(14):177-186.(WANG Z L,HUANG Z Q,LI J,et al.Assessing impacts of meteorological drought on vegetation at catchment scale in China based on SPEI and NDVI[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(14):177-186.(in Chinese))
[11] 刘文琨,裴源生,赵勇,等.区域气象干旱评估分析模式[J].水科学进展,2014,25(3):319-326.(LIU W K,PEI Y S,ZHAO Y,et al.Research of the regional meteorological drought assessment analysis model[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(3):319-326.(in Chinese))
[12] LIN Q,WU Z,SINGH V P,et al.Correlation between hydrological drought,climatic factors,reservoir operation,and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin,South China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,549:512-524.
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[14] GARCíA-VALDECASAS OJEDA M,GáMIZ-FORTIS S R,CASTRO-DíEZ Y,et al.Evaluation of WRF capability to detect dry and wet periods in Spain using drought indices[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2017,122(3):1569-1594.
[15] NAUMANN G,ALFIERI L,WYSER K,et al.Global changes in drought conditions under different levels of warming[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2018,45(7):3285-3296.
[16] BUURMAN J,MENS M J,DAHM R J.Strategies for urban drought risk management:a comparison of 10 large cities[J].International journal of water resources development,2017,33(1):31-50.
[17] 金菊良,宋占智,崔毅,等.旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术研究进展[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):398- 412.(JIN J L,SONG Z Z,CUI Y,et al.Research progress on the key technologies of drought risk assessment and control[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(3):398- 412.(in Chinese))
[18] 屈艳萍,郦建强,吕娟,等.旱灾风险定量评估总体框架及其关键技术[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):298-304.(QU Y P,LI J Q,LYU J,et al.A quantitative framework for assessing drought disaster risk and key techniques[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(2):298-304.(in Chinese))
[19] 张礼兵,伍露露,金菊良,等.大型灌区骨干水库分期旱限水位研究[J].水利学报,2018,49(6):757-766.(ZHANG L B,WU L L,JIN J L,et al.Study of staged drought-limited water level of the main reservoir in the large-scale irrigation district[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2018,49(6):757-766.(in Chinese))
[20] 万群志,杨光,李翰卿.嘉陵江流域干旱应急水量调度预案研究_万群志[J].人民长江,2014,45(3):16-19.(WAN Q Z,YANG G,LI H Q.Research on emergency water supply regulation scheme of Jialing River for drought relief[J].Yangtze River,2014,45(3):16-19.(in Chinese))
[21] 王飞,王宗敏,杨海波,等.基于SPEI的黄河流域干旱时空格局研究[J].中国科学:地球科学,2018,48(9):1169-1183.(WANG F,WANG Z M,YANG H B,et al.Study of the temporal and spatial patterns of drought in the Yellow River basin based on SPEI[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2018,48(9):1169-1183.(in Chinese))
[22] 赵兴凯,李增尧,朱清科.基于SPI和SPEI陕北黄土区土壤水分对气候特征的响应[J].农业机械学报,2016,47(8):155-163.(ZHAO X K,LI Z Y,ZHU Q K.Response of soil moisture on climate characteristics based on SPI and SPEI in Loess Region of Northern Shaanxi[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(8):155-163.(in Chinese))
[23] ZHU Y,LIU Y,MA X,et al.Drought analysis in the Yellow River basin based on a short-scalar palmer drought severity index[J].Water,2018,10(11):1526.
[24] 王煜,彭少明,郑小康.黄河流域水量分配方案优化及综合调度的关键科学问题[J].水科学进展,2018,29(5):614- 624.(WANG Y,PENG S M,ZHENG X K.Key scientific issues of water allocation plan optimization and comprehensive operation for Yellow River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(5):614- 624.(in Chinese))
[25] 彭少明,王煜,张永永,等.多年调节水库旱限水位优化控制研究[J].水利学报,2016,47(4):552-559.(PENG S M,WANG Y,ZHANG Y Y,et al.Optimal control of drought limit water level for multi-year regulating storage reservoir[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(4):552-559.(in Chinese))
[26] LIU Y,YANG X,REN L,et al.A new physically based self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index and its performance evaluation[J].Water Resources Management,2015,29(13):4833- 4847.
[27] KAO S,GOVINDARAJU R S.A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,380(1/2):121-134.
[28] 韦诗涛,钱胜,胡德祥.小浪底水库分期运用对库区及河道冲淤的影响[J].人民黄河,2017,39(11):11-14.(WEI S T,QIAN S,HU D X.Influences of scour and deposition in Xiaolangdi Reservoir and downstream caused by reservoir operation stage by stage[J].Yellow River,2017,39(11):11-14.(in Chinese))
[29] 李超群,刘红珍,李荣容.小浪底水库分期运用防洪风险多方案对比分析[J].人民黄河,2017,39(11):53-56.(LI C Q,LIU H Z,LI R R.Risk analysis for flood control operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir with seasonal flood-limited water levels[J].Yellow River,2017,39(11):53-56.(in Chinese))
[30] 曹宏桂,贠卫国.基于PSO-DE算法的突发水域污染溯源研究[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(10):3807-3812.(CAO H G,YUN W G.Research of the abrupt waters pollution source based on optimization algorithm of PSO-DE[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(10):3807-3812.(in Chinese))
[2] 张宇亮,蒋尚明,金菊良,等.基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法[J].水科学进展,2017,28(5):691-701.(ZHANG Y L,JIANG S M,JIN J L,et al.Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(5):691-701.(in Chinese))
[3] 屈艳萍,吕娟,苏志诚,等.抗旱减灾研究综述及展望[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):115-125.(QU Y P,LYU J,SU Z C,et al.Research review and perspective of drought mitigation[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2018,49(1):115-125.(in Chinese))
[4] LEHNER F,COATS S,STOCKER T F,et al.Projected drought risk in 1.5℃ and 2℃ warmer climates[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2017,44(14):7419-7428.
[5] 屈艳萍,吕娟,张伟兵,等.中国历史极端干旱研究进展[J].水科学进展,2018,29(2):283-292.(QU Y P,LYU J,ZHANG W B,et al.Progress in research on historical extreme drought in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(2):283-292.(in Chinese))
[6] 李原园,曹建廷,黄火键,等.国际上水资源综合管理进展[J].水科学进展,2018,29(1):127-137.(LI Y Y,CAO J T,HUANG H J,et al.International progresses in integrated water resources management[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(1):127-137.(in Chinese))
[7] HUANG S,HUANG Q,CHANG J,et al.Drought structure based on a nonparametric multivariate standardized drought index across the Yellow River basin,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,530:127-136.
[8] 赵雪花,赵茹欣.水文干旱指数在汾河上游的适用性分析[J].水科学进展,2016,27(4):512-519.(ZHAO X H,ZHAO R X.Applicability of the hydrologic drought index in the upper Fenhe River[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(4):512-519.(in Chinese))
[9] 任立良,沈鸿仁,袁飞,等.变化环境下渭河流域水文干旱演变特征剖析[J].水科学进展,2016,27(4):492-500.(REN L L,SHEN H R,YUAN F,et al.Hydrological drought characteristics in the Weihe catchment in a changing environment[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(4):492-500.(in Chinese))
[10] 王兆礼,黄泽勤,李军,等.基于SPEI和NDVI的中国流域尺度气象干旱及植被分布时空演变[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(14):177-186.(WANG Z L,HUANG Z Q,LI J,et al.Assessing impacts of meteorological drought on vegetation at catchment scale in China based on SPEI and NDVI[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(14):177-186.(in Chinese))
[11] 刘文琨,裴源生,赵勇,等.区域气象干旱评估分析模式[J].水科学进展,2014,25(3):319-326.(LIU W K,PEI Y S,ZHAO Y,et al.Research of the regional meteorological drought assessment analysis model[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(3):319-326.(in Chinese))
[12] LIN Q,WU Z,SINGH V P,et al.Correlation between hydrological drought,climatic factors,reservoir operation,and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin,South China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,549:512-524.
[13] 刘宁.中国干旱预警水文方法探析[J].水科学进展,2014,25(3):444- 450.(LIU N.Studies on hydrologic drought warning in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(3):444- 450.(in Chinese))
[14] GARCíA-VALDECASAS OJEDA M,GáMIZ-FORTIS S R,CASTRO-DíEZ Y,et al.Evaluation of WRF capability to detect dry and wet periods in Spain using drought indices[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2017,122(3):1569-1594.
[15] NAUMANN G,ALFIERI L,WYSER K,et al.Global changes in drought conditions under different levels of warming[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2018,45(7):3285-3296.
[16] BUURMAN J,MENS M J,DAHM R J.Strategies for urban drought risk management:a comparison of 10 large cities[J].International journal of water resources development,2017,33(1):31-50.
[17] 金菊良,宋占智,崔毅,等.旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术研究进展[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):398- 412.(JIN J L,SONG Z Z,CUI Y,et al.Research progress on the key technologies of drought risk assessment and control[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(3):398- 412.(in Chinese))
[18] 屈艳萍,郦建强,吕娟,等.旱灾风险定量评估总体框架及其关键技术[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):298-304.(QU Y P,LI J Q,LYU J,et al.A quantitative framework for assessing drought disaster risk and key techniques[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(2):298-304.(in Chinese))
[19] 张礼兵,伍露露,金菊良,等.大型灌区骨干水库分期旱限水位研究[J].水利学报,2018,49(6):757-766.(ZHANG L B,WU L L,JIN J L,et al.Study of staged drought-limited water level of the main reservoir in the large-scale irrigation district[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2018,49(6):757-766.(in Chinese))
[20] 万群志,杨光,李翰卿.嘉陵江流域干旱应急水量调度预案研究_万群志[J].人民长江,2014,45(3):16-19.(WAN Q Z,YANG G,LI H Q.Research on emergency water supply regulation scheme of Jialing River for drought relief[J].Yangtze River,2014,45(3):16-19.(in Chinese))
[21] 王飞,王宗敏,杨海波,等.基于SPEI的黄河流域干旱时空格局研究[J].中国科学:地球科学,2018,48(9):1169-1183.(WANG F,WANG Z M,YANG H B,et al.Study of the temporal and spatial patterns of drought in the Yellow River basin based on SPEI[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2018,48(9):1169-1183.(in Chinese))
[22] 赵兴凯,李增尧,朱清科.基于SPI和SPEI陕北黄土区土壤水分对气候特征的响应[J].农业机械学报,2016,47(8):155-163.(ZHAO X K,LI Z Y,ZHU Q K.Response of soil moisture on climate characteristics based on SPI and SPEI in Loess Region of Northern Shaanxi[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(8):155-163.(in Chinese))
[23] ZHU Y,LIU Y,MA X,et al.Drought analysis in the Yellow River basin based on a short-scalar palmer drought severity index[J].Water,2018,10(11):1526.
[24] 王煜,彭少明,郑小康.黄河流域水量分配方案优化及综合调度的关键科学问题[J].水科学进展,2018,29(5):614- 624.(WANG Y,PENG S M,ZHENG X K.Key scientific issues of water allocation plan optimization and comprehensive operation for Yellow River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(5):614- 624.(in Chinese))
[25] 彭少明,王煜,张永永,等.多年调节水库旱限水位优化控制研究[J].水利学报,2016,47(4):552-559.(PENG S M,WANG Y,ZHANG Y Y,et al.Optimal control of drought limit water level for multi-year regulating storage reservoir[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(4):552-559.(in Chinese))
[26] LIU Y,YANG X,REN L,et al.A new physically based self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index and its performance evaluation[J].Water Resources Management,2015,29(13):4833- 4847.
[27] KAO S,GOVINDARAJU R S.A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,380(1/2):121-134.
[28] 韦诗涛,钱胜,胡德祥.小浪底水库分期运用对库区及河道冲淤的影响[J].人民黄河,2017,39(11):11-14.(WEI S T,QIAN S,HU D X.Influences of scour and deposition in Xiaolangdi Reservoir and downstream caused by reservoir operation stage by stage[J].Yellow River,2017,39(11):11-14.(in Chinese))
[29] 李超群,刘红珍,李荣容.小浪底水库分期运用防洪风险多方案对比分析[J].人民黄河,2017,39(11):53-56.(LI C Q,LIU H Z,LI R R.Risk analysis for flood control operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir with seasonal flood-limited water levels[J].Yellow River,2017,39(11):53-56.(in Chinese))
[30] 曹宏桂,贠卫国.基于PSO-DE算法的突发水域污染溯源研究[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(10):3807-3812.(CAO H G,YUN W G.Research of the abrupt waters pollution source based on optimization algorithm of PSO-DE[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(10):3807-3812.(in Chinese))
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