基于气象条件的河北高速公路通行状况综合风险等级预报方法
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摘要
利用2012—2017年河北省高速公路沿线交通气象站观测资料以及因气象条件造成的高速公路交通事故和封闭管制资料,选取公路交通高影响天气的强度、持续时间、风险区划等级、单项车流量、地形、发生时段等多个因子,运用加权分析法,分别建立雾、路面结冰和强降雨3种气象灾害风险等级预报模型。在此基础上,构建综合3种高影响天气条件下的高速公路通行状况综合风险等级预报模型,并以3种天气条件造成的公路封闭时长为判别指标给出分级标准。经检验,基于3种高影响天气的河北高速公路通行状况综合风险等级预报模型,其产品准确率可达76.7%,能够满足日常交通气象服务需求。
Based on the meteorological observation data at traffic weather stations along the highways of Hebei Province and the highway traffic accidents and closed-control data caused by the meteorological conditions during 2012-2017, the influence factors of the intensity of high impact weather, durations, risk zoning levels, single traffic flow, topography and occurrence period, etc. on the highway traffic passing were selected, firstly. Then the risk level forecast models of fog, road icing and heavy rainfall disasters were established by using the multifactor weighted method. And on this basis, the integrated risk level forecast model of highway traffic based on three weather conditions was built, and the grade standards were defined with the discrimination index of highway closed-control time caused by fog, road icing and heavy rainfall. Through testing, the accuracy rate of the forecast products of highway traffic integrated risk level model based on the meteorological conditions was 76.7%, which can meet the demand of daily traffic meteorological service.
Based on the meteorological observation data at traffic weather stations along the highways of Hebei Province and the highway traffic accidents and closed-control data caused by the meteorological conditions during 2012-2017, the influence factors of the intensity of high impact weather, durations, risk zoning levels, single traffic flow, topography and occurrence period, etc. on the highway traffic passing were selected, firstly. Then the risk level forecast models of fog, road icing and heavy rainfall disasters were established by using the multifactor weighted method. And on this basis, the integrated risk level forecast model of highway traffic based on three weather conditions was built, and the grade standards were defined with the discrimination index of highway closed-control time caused by fog, road icing and heavy rainfall. Through testing, the accuracy rate of the forecast products of highway traffic integrated risk level model based on the meteorological conditions was 76.7%, which can meet the demand of daily traffic meteorological service.
引文
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[26] 高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价模型研究[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(21):4257-4268.
[27] 卞光辉,袁成松,周曾奎,等.高速公路交通气象条件等级(QX/T 111-2010)[S].北京:气象出版社,2010.
[28] 周贺玲,李丽平,乐章燕,等.河北省雾的气候特征及趋势研究[J].气象,2011,37(4):462-467.
[29] SAATY T L.How to make a decision:The analytic hierarchy process[J].European Journal of Operation Research,1990,48(1):9-26.
[30] 马翠平,曲晓黎,赵娜,等.高速公路行车气象指数(QX/T 415—2018)[S].北京:气象出版社,2018.
[2] 王博妮,袁成松,陈鹏,等.2013年初春一次平流雾过程对江苏交通的影响分析[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(1):46-53.
[3] 张娣,曲晓黎,张金满,等.河北省高速公路秋冬季浓雾特征及预报[J].干旱气象,2017,35(1):51-56.
[4] 白永清,何明琼,刘静,等.高速公路交通事故与气象条件的关系研究[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(2):66-71.
[5] 周须文,时青格,贾俊妹,等.低能见度雾的分级预报方法研究[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(1):161-166.
[6] 王博妮,濮梅娟,田力,等.江苏沿海高速公路低能见度浓雾的气候特征和影响因子研究[J].气象,2016,42(2):192-202.
[7] 黄政,袁成松,包云轩,等.基于不同参数化方案的高速公路大雾过程的数值模拟实验[J].气象,2016,42(8):944-953.
[8] 牛迪宇,包云轩,袁成松,等.江苏省典型高速公路强风和强横风时空分布特征[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(4):63-76.
[9] 曲晓黎,武辉芹,张彦恒,等.京石高速路面温度特征及预报模型[J].干旱气象,2010,28(3):352-357.
[10] 白永清,陈诚,何明琼.利用Logistic回归方法的高速桥(路)面结冰风险等级预警模型[J].气象科技,2016,44(2):336-340.
[11] 李迅,尹志聪,丁德平,等.北京地区高速公路道面结冰特征及气象条件[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(5):578-584.
[12] 钱莉,安颖颖,赵德强.乌鞘岭高速公路路段多发交通事故的气象条件分析[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2):286-291.
[13] 王丹,高红燕,黄少妮,等.西—咸机场高速公路灾害性天气特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(4):731-737.
[14] 罗慧,李良序,胡胜,等.公路交通事故与气象条件关系及其气象预警模型[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(3):350-357.
[15] 张金满,谭桂容,武辉芹,等.灾害性天气交通事故特征及雾天公路通行预警指标体系[J].干旱气象,2016,34(2):370-375.
[16] 张金满,谭桂容,李飞,等.冰雪天气公路通行条件预警指标[J].气象科技,2016,44(2):331-335.
[17] 宁贵财,康彩燕,陈东辉,等.2005—2014年我国不利天气条件下交通事故特征分析[J].干旱气象,2016,34(5):753-762.
[18] 李迅,甘璐,丁德平,等.G2京津塘高速公路交通气象安全指数的预报研究[J].气象,2014,40(4):466-472.
[19] 尤凤春,扈海波,郭丽霞.北京市暴雨积涝风险等级预警方法及应用[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(3):263-267.
[20] 柳艳香,潘进军,田华,等.高速公路交通气象灾害风险评估方法简介[J].气象科技进展,2017,7(6):18-21.
[21] 曲晓黎,张娣,郭蕊,等.高速公路雾灾风险区划模型[J].气象科技,2018,46(1):189-193.
[22] CHO H J,KIM K S.Development of hazardous road fog index and its application[J].Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies,2005,6:3357-3371.
[23] 狄靖月,王志,田华,等.降水引发的西南地区公路损毁风险预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(3):268-279.
[24] LUH J,CHRISTENSON E C,TOREGOZHINA A,et al.Vulnerability assessment for loss of access to drinking water due to extreme weather events[J].Climatic Change,2015,133(11):665-679.
[25] 李英帅,姚红云.基于加权分析法的山区农村公路交通安全评价研究[J].公路,2012(12):120-126.
[26] 高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价模型研究[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(21):4257-4268.
[27] 卞光辉,袁成松,周曾奎,等.高速公路交通气象条件等级(QX/T 111-2010)[S].北京:气象出版社,2010.
[28] 周贺玲,李丽平,乐章燕,等.河北省雾的气候特征及趋势研究[J].气象,2011,37(4):462-467.
[29] SAATY T L.How to make a decision:The analytic hierarchy process[J].European Journal of Operation Research,1990,48(1):9-26.
[30] 马翠平,曲晓黎,赵娜,等.高速公路行车气象指数(QX/T 415—2018)[S].北京:气象出版社,2018.
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