中俄天然气管道东线对目标市场的影响分析
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摘要
中俄天然气管道东线的目标市场为我国东北、环渤海、长三角地区,由于各地区经济发展程度、资源禀赋、产业结构、区域位置不同,天然气发展程度差距较大。东北地区气源单一,气化进程较慢;环渤海地区气源多元,区域发展不平衡,季节性需求差距大;长三角地区气源多元,市场发展领先,价格承受能力较高。中俄天然气管道东线投产后对不同地区影响将有所不同,主要表现在:改变了东北地区的供应格局,拉低了环渤海地区资源供应成本,增加了长三角地区的气源竞争程度。对这些地区的影响存在共同点:提高了资源保障能力,增加了气源供应通道,推动了气化进程,增加了夏季资源富余程度。为了有效降低不利影响,应控制海外LNG资源采购成本,提前做好夏季富余资源流向处理方案,推进基础设施互联互通。
The target markets of the eastern line of Sino-Russian natural gas pipeline are China's northeast, the Bohai Rim and Yangtze River Delta region and there is a big gap in the degree of natural gas development among them due to the different degree of economic development, resource endowment, industrial structure and regional position. In China's northeast,there is the unitary gas source and slower gasification degree. In Bohai Rim region, gas source is diverse, regional development is unbalanced with the large seasonal demand gap. While the Yangtze River Delta region has multiple natural gas sources, leading market development and high price affordability. Therefore, the eastern line of Sino-Russian natural gas pipeline's completion and commission will have different impacts on different regions. It will change the supply pattern in China's northeast, reduce the supply cost in the Bohai Rim, and increase the degree of natural gas source competition in the Yangtze River Delta. The influence on these areas also has common ground that it will improve the resource supply capacity, increase the supply channels of gas source, promote the gasification process, and increase the degree of resource surplus in summer. In order to effectively reduce the adverse effect, the procurement cost of the overseas LNG resources should be controlled, the solution of summer surplus resources flow should be made in advance, and the interconnection of the infrastructure should be facilitated.
The target markets of the eastern line of Sino-Russian natural gas pipeline are China's northeast, the Bohai Rim and Yangtze River Delta region and there is a big gap in the degree of natural gas development among them due to the different degree of economic development, resource endowment, industrial structure and regional position. In China's northeast,there is the unitary gas source and slower gasification degree. In Bohai Rim region, gas source is diverse, regional development is unbalanced with the large seasonal demand gap. While the Yangtze River Delta region has multiple natural gas sources, leading market development and high price affordability. Therefore, the eastern line of Sino-Russian natural gas pipeline's completion and commission will have different impacts on different regions. It will change the supply pattern in China's northeast, reduce the supply cost in the Bohai Rim, and increase the degree of natural gas source competition in the Yangtze River Delta. The influence on these areas also has common ground that it will improve the resource supply capacity, increase the supply channels of gas source, promote the gasification process, and increase the degree of resource surplus in summer. In order to effectively reduce the adverse effect, the procurement cost of the overseas LNG resources should be controlled, the solution of summer surplus resources flow should be made in advance, and the interconnection of the infrastructure should be facilitated.
引文
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[2]孙欲为,叶景深,魏思达.东北地区天然气资源供需现状及对策研究[J].辽宁化工, 2017(6).
[3]艾绍平.北京市天然气储气调峰能力建设分析[J].石化技术, 2018(9).
[4]孙慧,单蕾,王发展,刘烁.苏浙沪天然气产业发展对比分析[J].国际石油经济, 2018(8).
[5]张抗,白振瑞.中俄东线供气购销合同的回顾和展望[J].天然气技术与经济, 2014(4).
[6]莫莉.中俄天然气合作对中国天然气市场发展的影响与思考[J].城市建设理论研究, 2014(19).
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