生态脆弱区社会—生态景观恢复力时空演变及情景模拟
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摘要
从最具操作性的景观尺度探究社会—生态系统恢复力的时空分异及其演变,对于揭示人类活动变化对生态环境及其景观服务的影响机制,促进区域可持续发展意义重大。以黄土丘陵沟壑区米脂县作为典型案例地,从生态、社会、生产3个系统维度构建社会—生态景观恢复力评价指标体系,分析研究区各子系统和整体社会—生态景观恢复力时空演变及其相互关系。结果显示:①研究区2000-2015年社会—生态景观3子系统恢复力空间分异显著且都有增强。其中,"退耕还林"第1阶段(2000-2009年)增强突出,生态、社会、生产三系统恢复力指数分别上升0.134、0.048、0.028;第2阶段(2009-2015年)增强相对减缓,生态、社会、生产三系统恢复力指数分别上升0.038、0.017、0.021。②总体社会—生态景观恢复力空间分异同样显著,其恢复力指数上升11.60%,呈现中间高东西低的空间格局。③子系统与整体景观系统恢复力变化之间有主导性正向关系,且3个子系统恢复力变化协同关系显著,两个或三个系统协同率达到90%以上。最后,运用有序加权平均法,基于干扰指标与适应能力指标的不同权重设置情景偏好,绘制出"不可持续导向型""维持现状型"和"可持续导向型"3种情景下的社会—生态景观恢复力模拟图,为区域景观适应性管理提供决策支持。
It is of fundamental significance to reveal the influencing mechanism of changes in human activities on ecological environment and landscape services, and to promote regional sustainable development that explores spatio-temporal variation and evolution of socialecological resilience at the most operable landscape scale. Taking the loess hilly-gully region of Mizhi county as an example, this paper constructed an evaluation index system of socialecological landscape resilience from the three dimensions of ecosystem, society system, and production system. The resilience of spatial-temporal evolution of the social-ecological landscape and subsystems were analyzed in this area along with their mutual relationships. The following results were obtained from this study:(1) During 2000-2015, the spatial distribution of the three subsystems resilience was prominently distinct and significantly strengthened.Among them, the resilience was significantly enhanced in the first stage of "Grain for Green Project"(2000-2009), and the resilience index of the three systems increased by 0.134, 0.048 and 0.028, respectively.(2) The spatial distribution of resilience on social-ecological landscape was also significantly distinct and the resilience index increased by 11.60%. The spatial distribution of resilience on social-ecological landscape presents a pattern of "high in center and low in eastern and western parts".(3) The positive relationships between the changes of the subsystems resilience and landscape system resilience were dominant, and the synergistic relationship between the resilience of the subsystems was obvious. The synergy rate of two or three systems is over 90%. In this study, OWA method was applied based on different weights of interference and adaptive ability indexes to set up situational preferences. Following this,simulation diagrams of social-ecological landscape resilience of the unsustainably oriented scenario, the current situation oriented scenario and sustainably oriented scenario were mapped,which provide a decision support for the adaptive management of regional landscape.
It is of fundamental significance to reveal the influencing mechanism of changes in human activities on ecological environment and landscape services, and to promote regional sustainable development that explores spatio-temporal variation and evolution of socialecological resilience at the most operable landscape scale. Taking the loess hilly-gully region of Mizhi county as an example, this paper constructed an evaluation index system of socialecological landscape resilience from the three dimensions of ecosystem, society system, and production system. The resilience of spatial-temporal evolution of the social-ecological landscape and subsystems were analyzed in this area along with their mutual relationships. The following results were obtained from this study:(1) During 2000-2015, the spatial distribution of the three subsystems resilience was prominently distinct and significantly strengthened.Among them, the resilience was significantly enhanced in the first stage of "Grain for Green Project"(2000-2009), and the resilience index of the three systems increased by 0.134, 0.048 and 0.028, respectively.(2) The spatial distribution of resilience on social-ecological landscape was also significantly distinct and the resilience index increased by 11.60%. The spatial distribution of resilience on social-ecological landscape presents a pattern of "high in center and low in eastern and western parts".(3) The positive relationships between the changes of the subsystems resilience and landscape system resilience were dominant, and the synergistic relationship between the resilience of the subsystems was obvious. The synergy rate of two or three systems is over 90%. In this study, OWA method was applied based on different weights of interference and adaptive ability indexes to set up situational preferences. Following this,simulation diagrams of social-ecological landscape resilience of the unsustainably oriented scenario, the current situation oriented scenario and sustainably oriented scenario were mapped,which provide a decision support for the adaptive management of regional landscape.
引文
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(1)E、S、P表示三子系统(生态、社会系统和生产)恢复力;+、-表示增加、减少,无后缀表示不变。
[2] Ciftcioglu G C. Assessment of the resilience of socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes:A case study from Lefke Region of North Cyprus. Ecological Indicators, 2017, 73(6):128-138.
[3] Zhao Wenwu, Fang Xuening. Sustainable landscapes and landscape sustainability science. Journal of Ecology, 2014, 34(10):2453-2459.[赵文武,房学宁.景观可持续性与景观可持续性科学.生态学报, 2014, 34(10):2453-2459.]
[4] Mcginlay J, Gowing D J G, Budds J. Conserving socio-ecological landscapes:An analysis of traditional and responsive management practices for floodplain meadows in England. Environmental Science&Policy, 2016, 66:234-241.
[5] Petrosillo I, Zaccarelli N, Zurlini G. Multi-scale vulnerability of natural capital in a panarchy of social-ecological landscapes. Ecological Complexity, 2010, 7(3):359-367.
[6] Garmestani A S, Benson M H. A framework for resilience-based governance of social-ecological systems. Ecology&Society, 2013, 18(1):265-277.
[7] Chen Jia, Yang Xinjun, Yin Sha, et al. The vulnerability evolution and simulation of the social-ecological systems in the semi-arid area based on the VSD framework. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(7):1172-1188.[陈佳,杨新军,尹莎,等.基于VSD框架的半干旱地区社会—生态系统脆弱性演化与模拟.地理学报, 2016, 71(7):1172-1188.]
[8] Zhang Tian, Liu Yanxu, Wang Yanglin. The rural spatial evolution and reconstruction on a resilience view. Journal of Ecology, 2017, 37(7):2147-2157.[张甜,刘焱序,王仰麟.恢复力视角下的乡村空间演变与重构.生态学报, 2017, 37(7):2147-2157.]
[9] Wu J G. Landscape sustainability science:Ecosystem services and human well-being in changing landscapes.Landscape Ecology, 2013, 8(6):999-1023.
[10] Rescia A J, Willaarts B A, Schmitz M F, et al. Changes in land uses and management in two nature reserves in Spain:Evaluating the social-ecological resilience of cultural landscapes. Landscape&Urban Planning, 2010, 98(1):26-35.
[11] Min K, You S, Chon J, et al. Sustainable land-use planning to improve the coastal resilience of the social-ecological landscape. Sustainability, 2017, 9(7):1086.
[12] Li Y, Shi Y, Qureshi S, et al. Applying the concept of spatial resilience to socio-ecological systems in the urban wetland interface. Ecological Indicators, 2014, 42(7):135-146.
[13] Rescia A J, Ortega M, Rescia A J, et al. Quantitative evaluation of the spatial resilience to the B. oleae pest in olive grove socio-ecological landscapes at different scales. Ecological Indicators, 2017, 84:820-827.
[14] Yang Xinjun, Shi Yuzhong, Wang Ziqiao. Exploring the impacts of road construction on a local social-ecological system in Qinling mountainous area. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(8):1313-1326.[杨新军,石育中,王子侨.道路建设对秦岭山区社会—生态系统的影响.地理学报, 2015, 70(8):1313-1326.]
[15] Bergamini N, Blasiak R, Eyzaguirre P, et al. Indicators of Resilience in Socio-ecological Production Landscapes. UNUIAS Policy Report, 2010.
[16] Plieninger T, Bieling C. Resilience and the Cultural Landscape:Understanding and Managing Change in Human Shaped Environments. Cambridge:Camridge University Press, 2012(2):264.
[17] Oudenhoven F J, Mijatovic D, Eyzaguirre P B. Social-ecological indicators of resilience in agrarian and natural landscapes. Management of Environmental Quality:An International Journal, 2011, 22(2):154-173.
[18] Wang Qun, Lu Lin, Yang Xingzhu. Study on measurement and impact mechanism of socio-ecological system resilience in Qiandao Lake. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(5):779-795.[王群,陆林,杨兴柱.千岛湖社会—生态系统恢复力测度与影响机理.地理学报, 2015, 70(5):779-795.]
[19] Zhou Xiaofang. Measuring methods for the resilience of social-ecological systems. Journal of Ecology, 2017, 37(12):4278-4288.[周晓芳.社会—生态系统恢复力的测量方法综述.生态学报, 2017, 37(12):4278-4288.]
[20] Zhang Mengjie, Guan Dongjie, Su Weici. Scenarios simulation and indices thresholds determination of ecological security in Three Gorges Reservoir based on system dynamics. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2015, 35(14):4880-4890.[张梦婕,官冬杰,苏维词.基于系统动力学的重庆三峡库区生态安全情景模拟及指标阈值确定.生态学报, 2015, 35(14):4880-4890.]
[21] Xu Yueqing, Li Shuangcheng, Cai Yunlong. Spatial simulation using GIS and artificial neural network for regional poverty:A case study of Maotiaohe Watershed, Guizhou province. Progress in Geography, 2006, 25(3):79-85.[许月卿,李双成,蔡运龙.基于GIS和人工神经网络的区域贫困化空间模拟分析:以贵州省猫跳河流域为例.地理科学进展,2006, 25(3):79-85.]
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(1)E、S、P表示三子系统(生态、社会系统和生产)恢复力;+、-表示增加、减少,无后缀表示不变。
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